Nicholas Grossman

Nicholas Grossman

@nicholasgrossman.bsky.social

International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.

76,200 Followers 903 Following 19,947 Posts Joined May 2023
34 minutes ago

Keep spamming the bomb and bluster buttons, maybe it’ll work this time. It’s totally a cheat code for capitulation. Any time now.

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1 hour ago

The term unconditional surrender literally defines itself

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42 minutes ago

Can anyone explain how this is not a quid-pro-quo bribe?

Especially since US law demanded the transfer of TikTok’s US operations as the one way to avoid a ban.

Big donors to the president got the company as the govt forced the sale, and he gets $10 billion.

If not a bribe, why so bribe-shaped?

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9 hours ago
(1) The accused declared, ordered, or otherwise indicated that there shall be no survivors
or surrender accepted;
(2) The accused thereby intended to threaten an adversary or to conduct hostilities such
that there would be no survivors or surrender accepted;
(3) It was foreseeable that circumstances would be such that a practicable and reasonable
ability to accept surrender would exist;
(4) The accused was in a position of effective command or control over the subordinate
forces to which the declaration or order was directed; and
(5) The conduct took place in the context of and was associated with hostilities.

✋ Former USG war crimes lawyer here.

Apropos of SecDef's remarks this morning:

Denial of quarter—even the declaration of no quarter—is a war crime.

And recognized as such by the US Government.

From DoD's Manual for Military Commissions.

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8 hours ago

Let's be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.

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8 hours ago

Yes and no. A Marine Expeditionary Unit packs a lot of punch, and will have support from other US military assets.

But I take your point, a ground war could potentially play into Iran's hands as well.

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8 hours ago

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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8 hours ago

Indeed.

Version of that maxim that's popular in US security circles is "the enemy gets a vote."

It's a very old idea, and very well established. But America's current leaders apparently didn't think of it, or care.

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8 hours ago

It could be presaging a larger ground invasion, yes.

That is consistent with the claim that 2,500 Marines aren't enough to control the area around the Strait, let alone all of Iran's Gulf coastline.

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8 hours ago

No aspect of this war has been well thought out, so why start now

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8 hours ago

Every part of this has been ridiculously high risk, but not treated as such by the people in charge.

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8 hours ago

Those are ground troops. About 2,500 of them.

Most likely told to take over islands in the Gulf and/or Iran's coastline near the Strait of Hormuz.

If so, then:

1) It'll take time to get there and have any impact, even in the best case scenario

2) 2,500 probably isn't enough to control the Strait

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10 hours ago

Right. This is what it looks like when he is trying to do a good job. He probably doesn't define "good job" the same way you or I would, but it's safe to say he's not screwing up on purpose.

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10 hours ago

And when it doesn't work, he throws a fit, claiming to be a victim, insisting the other person cheated, anything other than acknowledging that it's dumb to expect one move to work in all situations.

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13 hours ago

About a week ago
"If they rise, they rise"

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11 hours ago

Not the same hiding/underground as in the era of long-distance aerial bombardment, but a similar strategy of survive, draw out the war, make it difficult, keep imposing costs, and eventually the bigger foreign power will lose their will.

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11 hours ago

Dear America,

We won’t hook up your buddy Vlad and undermine our own security just because you had the very stupid idea to launch an open-ended, ill-defined, poorly planned war on Iran.

Allies are assets, aren’t they? Maintaining mutually beneficial partnerships has value, no?

Sincerely,
Europe

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11 hours ago

Thanks!

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11 hours ago

Only president ever to get a pass on a quarter of their time in office.

As long as the economy was decent, give him credit (even though it was just on trend and he still did a big debt-financed stimulus). When the economy fell apart, zero blame goes his way (even though he mismanaged the crisis).

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12 hours ago

Every Trump administration statement on the Iran war is either “pay no attention to reality, up is down, this is going great, it’s practically ended in victory already” or “they’re fighting back? and being strategic? using the moves available to them? no fair!”

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12 hours ago

Hiding, going underground, is what smart humans do when out-gunned in war.

When facing a stronger aggressor, the move is survive, draw out the war, and as the costs pile up, the foreign invader loses their will.

We’ve known this for decades. Vietnam. Afghanistan. Basically Ukraine’s strategy too.

317 54 20 3
12 hours ago

The Iran war and global energy markets are beyond Trump’s control. Like COVID in term 1, except this crisis is entirely of his own making.

In Minnesota too, bullying and a show of force didn’t work like he wanted, and he couldn’t BS it away.

Great to talk about this with @gregsargent.bsky.social.

294 73 11 1
12 hours ago

Iran did show restraint and avoided big moves that would hurt itself too, namely closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Limited retaliation in 2025’s 12 Day War, or the missile exchanges with Israel in 2024. Or when Trump had Soleimani killed in 2020.

But then the US and Israel made the threat existential.

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1 day ago
Preview
Right-Wing Attacks on James Talarico Are a Reminder That Christian Extremism Is Official Republican Policy The reaction to Talarico's Christian rhetoric demonstrates the ways in which far-right theology is about underwriting misogyny and racism.

Right-wing Christians and even the NRSC have lined up to mock James Talarico’s inclusive, open-hearted Christianity.

Some have even called it blasphemy.

But the Christ of the outsider and the poor is a threat to their political power.

My latest:

www.liberalcurrents.com/right-wing-a...

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1 day ago

Amazing how most human beings can do youthful transgression/stupidity/experimentation while still grasping that the reason people say Nazism is bad is because the Nazis did many terrible things, not because the Nazis discovered some valuable forbidden truths.

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1 day ago

Iran war Pollster: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump's—

Millions of Americans: Approve!

Pollster: handling of—hey, I didn't finish the question.

Millions of Americans: I heard all I needed to.

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1 day ago

That’s the plan!

Actually, it’s worse. Not only let, but tell him that they’re good decisions and have produced great results.

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1 day ago

Yes, this is on civilian leadership.

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1 day ago

I think the main factor is the first one. They have no plan beyond “I get what I want or else,” and no idea what to do when “or else” doesn’t work.

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1 day ago

The US military is great at lethality. Truly world-class. Point to something and the US military can kill everyone there.

But lethality is a means, not an end. Ends are inherently political.

Said millions of times but bears repeating, since the people who don’t get it are in charge of the country.

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