Charlotte Swasey

Is it worth a whole blog post to explain why "a blue state" is a term with meaning and is not the same thing as "a state Democrats might win" or should I just save my breath and non crockettpost

Voters Want to Put an End To Corruption in Government Voters believe most politicians are corrupt, have a broad definition of the term, and widely support pro-trust and pro-transparency reforms.

Full results, as always, available on the Searchlight site:
www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/vot...

What even *is* corruption? According to our respondents, basically everything we tested. I wouldn't lean on the point estimates here (since people love to be like yeah sure I'll say yes to that), but I found this comparison interesting

Independents are MORE likely to say Trump is corrupt (vs Biden) but a majority still sees Biden as corrupt

Also surprising to me- Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to think their recent President is/was corrupt. There's partisan cheerleading happening here, but 39% is substantial.

However! Our likely voter sample (yes, I understand the irony here) still firmly believes in voting. Voters believing in voting might be a tautology, but I found it kinda surprising. I was expecting other forms of activism to be higher up.

There seems to be a strong belief that being in government long-term makes you more corrupt, and a corresponding support for term limits and removal of older officials- but also support for ~all the things. Tracking of work hours is imo most notable, and easy to implement

New from me at Searchlight- Voters have a pretty dour view of the state of government and corruption

I'm going to walk into the sea ☺️

Happy Thanksgiving! If you're making cocktails, consider this one (but don't make my mistakes)
open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

I need Democrats to try getting weird We should be running creative, chaotic, and experimental state legislative campaigns

Today on the blog: Democrats should run weirder campaigns, and people with clever ideas should go run a long shot state legislative campaign

open.substack.com/pub/cauldron...

Seems like someone could do a better more deeply reported story on this!

Jared Golden: I won’t seek reelection. Here’s why. "What I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son."

It is positively insane to primary challenge Golden from his left!

www.bangordailynews.com/2025/11/05/o...

virgin bsky poster: all that really matters is vibes and fighting for something, poll-testing is the death of campaigns

chad zohran mamdani: let's spend lots of money fine-tuning the exact language we use to talk about affordability and bring up affordability in response to every question

Quick, someone do a sentiment analysis on Matt Stoller's tweets about Mamdani before and after this announcement

"oh my gosh, what explains this shift" probably that it was an off year and also that the "shift" is at least half an exit poll mirage

Have we not learned that day after the election posts like this are usually wrong. Exit polls are bad, rapidly calculating vote by demographic is hard to impossible, please chill out

Zohran Mamdani’s Muted Climate Politics The self-described “ecosocialist” ran an ultra-disciplined campaign for New York City mayor. Once he’s in office, the climate issue could become unavoidable.

“Given all the notes he struck during the campaign, it is revealing to consider those Mamdani left unplayed. One in particular stands out: Throughout the mayoral run, Mamdani rarely spoke about climate change — often doing so only when directly asked.” heatmap.news/politics/zoh...

Super interesting thread! This accounting of what's likely to happen doesn't quiiiite match up with voter perceptions of what's likely to happen. Which shouldn't be a surprise to anyone.

"don't post about voter registration trends" is the new "don't post about early vote"

‘I have papers’: Child care worker detained by ICE officers inside a Chicago day care Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection.

Raids inside day cares had been off limits until this year, when, on his first day in office, President Donald Trump removed that protection.

The arrest reportedly took place in front of children.
19thnews.org/2025/11/chil...

also shoutout to our partner on this media analysis, Nontoxic Media, for many things but especially teaching me the many many ways transcribing can misspell "Mamdani"

How Zohran Mamdani Won By avoiding ‘crowding out,’ Mamdani drove a focus on the cost of living.

I'm really pleased with this poll and media analysis, full results on our website. (there's a lot more in the toplines that I just didn't get to- maybe more on this soon?)

www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...

Now he's got to get things done. Voters support some of his policies, like free childcare and a rent freeze, but they're not entirely convinced they'll actually happen.

And it worked! Voters understood that he was focused on their wallets, and saw him as more in line with their top priorities than national democrats. He dodged the "crowding out" problem that dilutes Democratic focus on pocketbook issues.

In his content, Mamdani stayed very on message- focusing on his core issues of affordability, housing, and transit. He barely mentioned issues like climate change and avoided getting dragged into topics he wasn't running on.

NEW from @searchlightinst.bsky.social What did Zohran Mamdani *say* and what did voters *hear*? We analyzed hundreds of videos from all the NYC mayoral candidates, and then we asked voters what *they* thought the election was about. 🧵

The most powerful tool a campaign has is the candidate. And despite academics charts showing low ticket-splitting, a focused candidate *can* differentiate them from the party. Mamdani focused on costs and voters listened.

www.searchlightinstitute.org/research/how...

Democrats Retain Control of Pennsylvania's Supreme Court with Three-Seat Sweep - Bolts Three Democratic justices on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court have defeated an unusually high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They secured large statewide victories on Tuesday, following an histo...

Democrats sweep three supreme court elections in Pennsylvania, defeating high-profile Republican bid to unseat them. They won large statewide victories, centered largely on the court’s role in defending voting and abortion rights. boltsmag.org/pennsylvania...

See our AAPOR report on 2024 poll accuracy that was released last week!