Stefan Gerlach

When Politicians Become Central Bankers The backgrounds of the ECB’s Governing Council members may shape monetary policy

In today’s post, I ask whether the number of former government ministers on ECB's Governing Council has risen and note that it increased from 0 in 2001 to 7 in 2021. Why has this shift occurred, and what might it mean for monetary policy?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/when-polit...

An interesting presentation by SNB President Martin Schlegel at the 2025 SNB Watchers conference this afternoon.

www.snb.ch/en/publicati...

Geneva

Blowing Up the Second-Largest Swiss Bank The 1933 rescue of the Schweizerische Volksbank

I began looking into how Swiss banks fared in the Great Depression and found a paper on the near failure of the Schweizerische Volksbank in 1933. It deserves wider attention, so I decided to write a post based on it.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/blowing-up...

Quick comment: Will the ECB stay at 2%? Markets appear not fully convinced

Markets still see 2% as the most likely ECB policy rate in 2026, but the ECB Watch Tool suggests it would not take much for a cut to 1.75% to become the central scenario.
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/quick-comm...

Back to global monetary policy Further easing looks likely to be slow and modest

Today I return to global monetary policy. Looking at 10 central banks, I show how the mean versus the median of interest rates helps predict future interest rate changes. The data suggest that further interest rate moves are now likely to be modest.

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/back-to-gl...

Recruitment of new Executive Board member initiated The General Council of the Riksbank has decided to begin a recruitment process for a new member of the Executive Board of the Riksbank. The General Council also

The Riksbank is looking for a new Deputy Governor. Central banks should advertise all senior positions — if the pool is restricted to insiders there can be no presumption that the best possible candidate is appointed.

www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...

Switzerland Shows No Signs of Changing the SNB After Jordan’s Long Reign Switzerland could have the best chance in years to revamp its central bank right now, if the country actually wanted it.

That didn’t age well: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The SNB releases a meeting summary A welcome step toward greater transparency in Swiss monetary policy

Yesterday the SNB released its first Summary of the discussion at its last monetary policy meeting. I was positively surprised and found it well done. Here is a post I wrote:

open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

Zürich

Governor Miran’s first speech Has the neutral rate fallen sharply?

Stephen Miran, the Fed’s newest governor, used his first speech to argue that the neutral rate has plunged after this year’s sharp shift in US economic policy. It is a striking claim — and it raises the obvious question: is he right?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/governor-m...

Pre-dinner walk

YouTube video by franceinfo Exclusif : les premiers mots de Philippe Aghion, prix Nobel d’économie

Great -- what enthusiasm! youtu.be/AHio_rKk5tE?...

Bloomberg on Upcoming Changes at the ECB A major reshuffle ahead

Some comments on a very interesting recent Bloomberg article on the upcoming ECB appointments:
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/bloomberg-...

YouTube video by BBVA Foundation Interview with Philippe Aghion, winner of the Frontiers of Knowledge Award winner in Economics

An interesting interview with Philippe Aghion.

youtu.be/PCJn36esiyw?...

The MAS at the Crossroads Decision finely balanced, but patience likely to prevail for now

In today’s post, I look at the upcoming decision of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, MAS: swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/the-mas-at...

Martin Schlegel’s First Year as SNB President A promising start with hopes of more to come

In today’s post, I look at Martin Schlegel’s excellent first year as SNB president.

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/martin-sch...

Tracking Global Inflation A cross-country approach to identifying turning points in inflation

In today’s post, I look at annual inflation (the average monthly inflation rate over the past year) which is not very informative about current price pressures. By averaging across countries instead of over time we can get a better sense of current inflation.
open.substack.com/pub/swissmac...

Paris

Now at the SNB’s annual Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture at the ETH Zurich. This year’s speaker is John Cochrane.

Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’ as markets doubt further cuts Central bank’s president stresses policymakers ready to act if ‘risks to inflation shift’

A very interesting speech, given at @suomenpankki.fi yesterday. The highlight was President Lagarde’s discussion of why the impact of the US tariffs on the euro area has been less than expected.

on.ft.com/4gTJCNE Lagarde says ECB’s interest rates stance not ‘fixed’

This is a good read by @tuomasvalimaki.suomenpankki.fi on the ECB’s operational framework.

www.suomenpankki.fi/en/news-and-...

Today I attended a timely and thought-provoking conference hosted by @suomenpankki.fi on monetary policy, geopolitics and trade. Highlights included speeches by Governor @ollirehn.suomenpankki.fi, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and ECB President Lagarde.

Helsinki

Tariffs and Monetary Policy Why central banks should not simply “look through” tariff-driven inflation

In today’s post I review an article on tariffs and monetary policy. Central banks should not look through tariff shocks but rather manage to decline in economic activity to the new equilibrium level.

swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/tariffs-an...

Pre-dinner walk

www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/202...

Anna Breman is leaving the Riksbank Read more on the Riksbank’s website.

A huge loss for the Riksbank — Anna Breman is leaving to be governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

www.riksbank.se/en-gb/press-...

Sandymount (Dublin)

Riksbank Preview: Weak Growth Tilts Decision Toward a Cut September decision hinges on how the Bank weighs recent data

The upcoming Riksbank decision is finely balanced, with a tilt towards no change. It will hinge on two factors. First, how confident the Riksbank is that inflation will decline? Second, how worried it is about the outlook for economic activity?
swissmacroandhistory.substack.com/p/riksbank-p...