@arebucci.bsky.social
Professor of Economics and Finance at Johns Hopkins Carey Business School. International finance and macroeconomics. Former IMF and IDB. https://carey.jhu.edu/faculty/faculty-directory/alessandro-rebucci-phd
Glad to see this in press . One under appreciated way China is increasingly affecting the rest of the world.
Mkay
Another link if you're hitting 'dead link'. It's not free I'm afraid, pls pay my wages.
Summary gif below
www.ft.com/content/3647...
It has been fun and exciting experimenting with LLM technology in canvassing expert opinions about an important new topic on which is had to find traditional forms of data evidence. As the paper shows. there is a huge research potential in these tools.
A survey of expert opinions canvassed through Large Language Model analysis and case studies indicate that stablecoins are a significant payment technology innovation with financial stability risk, from Ahmed, Clouse, Natalucci, @arebucci.bsky.social, and Sun www.nber.org/papers/w34475
Keynote Speakers:
Helen Milner, Princeton University
Jesse Schreger, Columbia University
Panel Moderator: Soumaya Keynes, Financial Times (tentatively confirmed)
#EconConf
JHU Geoeconomics Conference strikes back after successful 2025 edition www.ft.com/content/daf5...
This year we teamed up with N. Limao and GTU
Deadline Jan 5th 2026. See here for details: drive.google.com/file/d/1v1tg...
A long time in the making, we finally cracked this nut: very excited about this new and hopefully impactful paper. We show that optimal management of crises entails joint optimization of prudential and bailout polices. There is also a new multiplicity result under asset price borrowing constraints
#GenAI is indeed supervised to ensure it does not harm the public. Here is a query and response from an unnamed LLM portal: Query "Can u give me the main milestones of China's policy on #rareearth export restrictions?"
Answer: "Sorry, that's beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else."
The #BBB will add $3-4 trillion to the US debt supply. #TheGeniusAct and #SLR reform have their merits, but will boost demand for government debt, while investors are retrenching and dealer inventories are at all-time highs. This smacks of #financialrepression
anderseninstitute.org/regulation-b...
I am thrilled to have joined the substack.com/profile/31…as an Andersen Institute Scholar! 🚀
I am grateful to Fabio Natalucci for the opportunity to collaborate with his outstanding team, and I am excited to contribute to this critical dialogue.
#Technology #AI #Fragmentation #Deglobalization
A nice discussion of the current and capital account channels of transmission on the exchange rate of tariffs
Mar-a-Lago Accord does not seem to be going according to plan: www.reuters.com/markets/asia...
Financial repression is coming: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
Miran had suggested foreign official holders should be forced to demand more USTs ... Bessent is settling for forcing US banks and stablecoin holders to help lower borrowing costs.
Way too many people still think this is an exciting time:
Martin Wolf is good on Odd Lots in part because this is exactly how he chats to you in the office kitchen if you ask him a tricky question like "hello Martin, how are you?"
open.spotify.com/episode/6dUH...
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
Will feature also at our conference in a few days. Terrific paper!
mediahost.sais-jhu.edu/saismedia/me...
China pulls back from US private equity investments
https://www.ft.com/content/478c1c64-8923-4ec2-858d-670b30ae44f9
If tariffs are going to improve US debt sustainability then why is US default risk going up?
#Finsky #Econsky
The ETFs that are not struggling are those emphasizing companies with operations in Mexico, Chile, and Germany: well.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-17/once-hot-wall-street-funds-unravel-fast-with-no-savior-in-sight?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=copy
7/7 The #USdollar response to the Liberation Day tariff announcement was surprising and appears also driven by a portfolio reallocation away from US equity markets. This suggests that tariff negotiation plans will not only need to consider possible impacts on #safeassets but also risky assets.
6/7 This is especially the case when these inputs are specific and cannot be substituted away. For example, the share of industrial supplies, capital goods, and transport equipment in US imports from China is more than 70% (cepr.org/voxeu/column...)
5/7 Why did US equities fall more than foreign equities?
If a tariff is imposed across the board without distinguishing between final and intermediate products, tariffs can become a cost push or supply chain shock, and stock prices react to supply chain risks: academic.oup.com/qje/article-...
4/7 The VIX index spiked on the announcement, WTI oil fell, driven by global demand concerns, gold rose, BUT the US Treasury 10-year yield fell on 4/3. Although US Treasury yields rose considerably during the following week, flight-to-safety did not drive the initial impact on the dollar.
3/7 Why did this happen? Foreign investors rebalanced their portfolios away from US equities after the tariff announcement: US stock indices fell more than others, and Global benchmark funds ex-US saw much smaller outflows.
2/7 We find that tariffs weakened the US dollar and hurt US equities, driven by the appreciation of G10 currencies.
This is unusual: theory and prior evidence suggest that tariffs weaken the currency of the countries being targeted. Indeed, floating EM currencies depreciated.
New column on cepr.org/voxeu with Jon Hartley on the #USDollar depreciation on the Liberation Day tariff announcement. We use high-frequency data to track the response of the dollar, treasuries, and global equities.
1/7 🧵
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky #News
Reposting to
#EconSky #EconConf #AcademicSky