@adamjschwarz.bsky.social
Writer & Political Commentator | Tracking how far-right authoritarianism and tech oligarchy are eroding democracy. Featured on BBC, Sky News, LBC, EuroNews & more. Appearances: https://www.youtube.com/@AdamJSchwarz https://linktr.ee/adamjschwarz
Iran's leadership, including its nuclear chief, foreign minister, Supreme National Security Council secretary, police commander and Armed Forces Judicial head, literally all out on the streets of Tehran and other cities today.
The Strait of Hormuz being closed for a prolonged period could send the global economy hurtling into recession. It will also determine whether the Iran War ends in a humiliating defeat for Trump.
Economically and politically, the Trump administration should be very, very worried about it.
My reply to him.
My friend in the Czech Republic has messaged me to give his opinion on whether British bank notes should feature a badger or Churchill.
Nice that our island continues to lead the global agenda.
The paradox of a war against Iran is that it would take an unhinged US president to start one, but a deeply prudent one to prevent it from becoming a catastrophe.
Trump doesn't realise that Iran has gamed this scenario for literally decades. The regime knows it can't win a conventional military fight. So its aiming for a tactical victory by shutting the Strait of Hormuz via asymmetric warfare.
No quick and easy way out for Trump without a humiliating defeat.
Trump has threatened to escalate the conflict if Iran continues to wreak havoc on the Strait of Hormuz. It won't work. Iran's regime is not willing to be coerced by US military force.
Trump will go after softer targets e.g. energy infrastructure. But it won't succeed in stopping attacks on Hormuz.
The US could annihilate Iran's inland military but still emerge as a victor in their minds (aka regime survival and US humiliation) if they retain the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
If the US can't secure it, Trump has two choices 1. Escalate the conflict or 2. A humiliating climb down.
The fate of the Iran War now rests on whether the US can secure the Strait of Hormuz.
If the US can't secure it, Iran will have massive leverage over the global economy & therefore over Trump.
The only other way to overcome this is regime change, but Trump can't do that without huge ground forces.
In most circumstances, I would completely agree with you. Govt can't contest every, or even most, employment battles on principle. But stopping a man sacked for misleading officials about his links to a pedophile sex trafficker from receiving taxpayer cash should have been an exception, in my view.
This happens a lot in the public sector. And it can be a legit reason for a payout.
But in this circumstance, govt should have been willing to risk paying more to challenge it.
Govt would have had a solid legal case as Mandelson failed to disclose the full extent of Epinstein links during vetting.
No, I'm saying the govt should have been willing to risk paying more in legal fees or a higher amount to Mandelson to fight for the principle that he should not receive a payout.
Govt would've had a solid legal case as Mandelson failed to disclose the full extent of Epinstein links during vetting.
PM's Chief Secretary Darren Jones says the govt paid £75k to Mandelson because it would have cost the taxpayer more to contest the payment.
Really poor reasoning. The govt should have contested payment to avoid giving cash to a man sacked for lying about the extent of his relationship with Epstein.
It's also totally insane that Trump was either unaware until today's media reports that Iran could mine the Straight of Hormuz or discounted the threat.
And what's his grand plan to stop them from playing this card that could ruin his quick and easy exit? Threaten Iran with... more military action.
This could be the moment that Trump loses control.
He could end military action tonight, but if Iran mines the Strait of Hormuz, there's nothing he can do to rapidly mitigate the economic damage as demining could take months.
Trump can't overcome this with a TruthSocial post. No quick & easy exit.
If Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz, it would be a catastrophe for the global economy.
It would take weeks or months of specialised work to demine the route.
Trump is utterly out of his depth. All of this was long predicted by open source analysis of how a war with Iran could unfold.
Netanyahu got what he needed. He can now claim to his electorate that he defeated all of Israel's enemies - Sinwar, Haniyeh, Nazrallah & Khamenei.
But full regime collapse would be ideal for him. So he'll hit more targets that will cause longer-term damage, in the hope of post-war destabilisation.
I expect Israel will massively escalate strikes after Trump signals he'll end the war soon.
Netanyahu is determined to topple Iran's regime. Trump is not.
The Israeli govt was already disappointed after Trump abruptly ended June's war. Netanyahu won't want to miss another opportunity to do this.
Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent had insisted just a few days ago that oil sanctions relief on Russia was a “deliberately short-term measure".
I guess now we know what Trump's call with Putin this afternoon was about.
Trump suggests he my not reimpose oil sanctions on Russia after the Iran war:
"We're going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out. Who knows - maybe we won't have to put them [back] on, they'll be so much peace."
Trump on 28 Feb: Regime change in Iran!
Trump on 5 March: I have to choose the next Supreme Leader!
Trump on 6 March: Unconditional surrender!
8 March: Iran appoints Khamenei's hardline son as Supreme Leader.
Trump on 9 March: The war is very complete.
Islamist jihadists will using this clip of Trump for propaganda recruitment for the next half a century.
This is the most blasé admission of a war crime by a US president in history.
Trump has just disclosed, without prompting, that the US Military committed a war crime - literally just to brag & make his Republican audience laugh about unnecessarily killing 100+ Iranians instead of capturing them.
Trump says US Navy sank Iran's warship off the coast of Sri Lanka because "it's more fun" to sink ships than capture them.
Trump:
"We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion... short-term. short-term."
Trump never climbs down on foreign policy without insider trading opps for his pals. But he usually goes back and fourth to make markets zigzag to maximize profiteering e.g. when he's backed down on tariffs.
So this could be it. As I posted last week - he likes a quick and 'easy' win. Or just $$$.
Either Trump is about to end the Iran War or he's manipulating the market to enrich his cronies.
All I can think about on International Women's Day is how those 150+ young girls killed in the Iran school airstrike might have benefited from a future without the Iranian regime had they not been victims of Trump's war.
An unconscionable atrocity.
We must demand transparency and accountability.
Man who dragged Britain into an illegal war in the Middle East scolds other man for not dragging Britain into an illegal war in the Middle East.
Pleased to be quoted in this piece on Hegseth’s rhetoric.
www.rawstory.com/hegseth-iran...