Jonathan Powell

Guinea-Bissau’s presidential poll has already failed the credibility test What’s at stake in Guinea-Bissau’s election is a wider regional crisis in which incumbents erode legitimacy.

A military coup appears to have happened in Guinea-Bissau. The warning signs were there, leading up to Sunday's elections. @drpowell.bsky.social & I wrote about these warning signs last week over at @africa.theconversation.com.

theconversation.com/guinea-bissa...

EP 108: The Recent Coup in Madagascar with Dr Salah Ben Hammou

Had the pleasure to join the good folks over at the Centre for African Conflict & Development to offer my perspective on the Madagascar coup and other related developments in their latest podcast episode.

open.spotify.com/episode/18ea...

Madagascar’s ‘Coupvolution’ Is Following a Familiar Pattern Gen Z protesters now have buyer's remorse.

Happy to share my latest piece at Foreign Policy w/ @drpowell.bsky.social. Madagascar’s recent coup reflects a wider “coupvolution” trend - civilians help topple leaders, only to be sidelined once the military takes over. Here's what they can do.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/06/m...

As we see a rise in coups across Africa, Salah Ben Hammou (@salahbhpolisci.bsky.social) and Jonathan Powell (@drpowell.bsky.social) have been making significant contributions to conversations about coups around the world, including in AF&S! Find their articles here: journals.sagepub.com/home/afs

Perhaps, but until we actually see a powerless court maybe the system shouldn't be coded worse than Mao or Fujimori on executive constraints.

For some perspective, a +4 overall is on par with Apartheid South Africa, Mugabe's Zimbabwe, and Putin's Russia.

The explanation for the downgrade not aligning with stated criteria was also an issue for post-2020. If the explanations reflect actual criteria used for the US, those criteria for unknown reasons appear to be wholly ignored in many other cases in their dataset.

I'll be more blunt. It's a joke. Trump will be challenged in court, as the legal process would demand. They did this before with Trump and quickly reversed their coding. The US also seems to be the only country that gets this sort of treatment with their autocoup measure.

Sudan’s New Model for Aid Distribution Rather than rely on other countries or international organizations, local communities have banded together.

Sharing my latest with Kelsey Norman over at Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com. Here, we discuss how mutual aid networks in Sudan offer an alternative model of aid distribution in armed conflict.

foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/07/s...

All the Die Hard talk distracts us from recognizing a truly great Christmas movie: Lethal Weapon

Gabon’s coup leaders have changed the constitution to entrench their power – it’s a growing trend in west Africa Coup leaders in Gabon are using democratic tools to extend their stay in power.

New commentary with @salahbhpolisci.bsky.social on post-coup politics. This will be the first of a number on the return of military rule and its relationship to broader shifts in global politics.

theconversation.com/gabons-coup-...

A lot of trouble to go through for a captain… amp.theguardian.com/world/2023/n...

I got that from a guy at my first ever conference presentation. Dude had just presented on great power warfare…