Gabriel Ulyssea

Link to the paper:
econometricsociety.org/publications...

We develop a model of firm dynamics and informality to explore mechanisms. Counterfactuals show that informality initially acts as a stepping stone to formality, but in the long run reduces the aggregate gains from migration by allowing the least productive firms to survive.

Downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) in the formal sector. In municipalities w/high DNWR, formalization effects are smaller or muted, and non-employment ⬆️. DNWR matters more in the SR than in the LR, as inflation and worker turnover allow real wages to adjust down.

Why do our findings differ so sharply from previous research? Time horizon and wage rigidity. When we adopt the yr-on-yr specification typically used we replicate earlier findings. Formalization effects emerge only over longer time horizons. But why would the time horizon matter?

We challenge this pessimistic consensus by examining the decade-long effects of drought-induced migration on 🇧🇷 cities in 2000-2010. Results are striking: migration reduces informality, has no effect on unemployment, and creates thousands of new formal firms and jobs.

Climate change is expected to accelerate rural-urban migration in developing countries. Conventional wisdom, rooted in the "Harris-Todaro-Fields view", predicts that migrants end up in informality or unemployment. Empirical evidence on short-run effects confirms this view.

Thrilled to see this at @ecmaeditors.bsky.social w/ @clementimbert.bsky.social!

Can developing cities create enough good jobs to accommodate climate migrants?
Spoiler: Yes!

Over a decade, drought-induced immigration ⬇️ informality and ⬆️ the of formal firms and jobs in Brazil.🧵👇

Thanks, Filipe!!

Thrilled to see this forthcoming in @ecmaeditors.bsky.social! With the greats Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Penny Goldberg, and Costas Meghir!

@gulyssea.bsky.social @imanelici.bsky.social @alempeter.bsky.social @cynthiakinnan.bsky.social @johnvanreenen.bsky.social @virginiaminni.bsky.social @tommasoporzio.bsky.social

Thrilled to see this paper now forthcoming! Great summary below:

We at @ucleconomics.bsky.social have extended the application deadline to our MA degrees by a week (until May 8th)--all nationalities warmly welcome!

Very happy to see this out! This is a major revision relative to the previous issue. We have included important topics such as minimum wages, migration, and market power. Plus, it now also covers housing informality! Check it out!