Amy J. Nelson

Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.

What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.

I agree that it's part of a greater strategic shift--that the NPR alone won't resolve ambiguity.

NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.

Trump and the New Era of U.S. Nuclear Ambiguity Trump’s decision to skip a Nuclear Posture Review risks dangerous ambiguity—leaving allies and adversaries guessing on U.S. doctrine.

The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque.

As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point?

New piece for @newamerica.org:
🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Website news article titled "To Restore America, Start with Honor" by Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America, dated July 3, 2025. The background features the American flag.

Website news article titled "Think Tanks in an Authoritarian Moment" by Mark Schmitt, Senior Director of New America's Political Reform Program, dated July 16, 2025. The background features people gathered in protest.

Website news article titled "The Kids Are Not Alright. But Don’t Blame Social Media." by Sydney Saubestre, Senior Policy Analyst of New America's Open Technology Institute, dated July 17, 2025. The background features social media icons on a phone.

Website news article titled "The False Debate That Could Ignite the Next Nuclear Crisis" by Amy J. Nelson, Director of New America's Future Security Scenarios Lab, dated July 23, 2025. The background features a nuclear power plant.

New America experts around the web:

1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr

2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4

3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd

4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu

Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion Vipin and I welcome Mallory Stewart and Mike Albertson to discuss impediments to negotiating a New START follow-on agreement, how China factors in, and what a future agreement may look like.

This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts?

Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson!

Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next?

My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements.

www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

My new piece for @newamerica.org examines the strategic consequences of exiting the #JCPOA w/out a plan, the erosion of risk management tools, and diplomacy in a post-agreement era as treaty-making gives way to improvisation.

What the Iran Crisis Reveals about Arms Control

The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next.

🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...
#NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear

5/
Force without diplomacy isn’t strategy—it’s drift.

#Iran #Israel #Nuclear #ForeignPolicy #JCPOA #SecurityStudies #Nonproliferation #Deterrence #FuturesThinking

4/
What futures does this signal?
– What happens when coercion becomes default?
– How do adversaries adapt when talks fail?
– What new architectures could rebuild credibility?

3/
Military signals—like Israeli strikes—may not be reinforcing diplomacy anymore, but replacing it. And that risks accelerating the very threats they aim to deter.

2/
The JCPOA collapsed. U.S. policy whiplash, maximalist demands, and reversals have left adversaries doubting whether any concessions will yield lasting outcomes.

1/
For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether?

🧵

2/
🔧 Reverse Engineering
Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel in 2011. From it—and other downed drones—it built the Shahed-171 & Saegheh. Copy first, innovate later.

7/
Adaptation beats invention. Constraints don’t always slow proliferation—they sometimes accelerate it.

#Iran #UAV #Drones #MilitaryTech #TechDiffusion #Security

6/
Bottom line: Iran’s drone evolution challenges the idea that only big powers can field or export this kind of capability.

5/
And they learned by using them. Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon—conflicts that doubled as live-fire R&D labs. The feedback loop mattered.

4/
Then came the domestic ramp-up. Despite sanctions, Iran scaled production of ISR drones, loitering munitions, and the Shahed-136—now seen in Ukraine.

3/
Foreign help played a role early on—tech and designs from China, Russia, maybe even North Korea. Nothing cutting-edge, but enough to build on.

2/
It started with reverse engineering. Iran captured a U.S. RQ-170 in 2011, studied other downed UAVs, and built its own: Shahed-171, Saegheh, and more.

1/
Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵

When RAND was founded in 1948, it was because the old ways of thinking couldn’t meet new atomic-age threats. The Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org picks up that mantle—designing futures thinking for today’s interdependent risks. Read more here:
www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Launching the Future Security Scenarios Lab: Meeting Today’s RAND Moment The Future Security Scenarios Lab advances a multidisciplinary approach to tackle complex security challenges through advanced technologies

🚨 New blog post!
We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world.

Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.”
📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

#StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity

U.S. Proposes Interim Step in Iran Nuclear Talks Allowing Some Enrichment

Worth noting: The new US proposal to Iran underscores a broader truth: #ArmsControl often advances not through grand bargains, but through incremental steps. As my work highlights, this kind of progress can reduce risk and build stability even amid deep #uncertainty.

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...

I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org!

If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk.

#Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL

Iran accuses U.S. of 'provocative statements' ahead of nuclear talks The Foreign Ministry spokesperson criticized “the contradictory approach of American decision-makers," state media reported.

Arms control negotiations don't collapse over weapons—they collapse over mistrust.

When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time.

#armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy

via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...

In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.

To prevent Iran's nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy To curb Iran's nuclear ambitions before it is too late, the Trump administration has no choice but to learn the art of strategic compromise.

Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy

@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org

thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p...

#Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky