A huge thank you to my brilliant collaborators
@nvidia -Miika Aittala, @karstenkreis.bsky.social, Noah Brenowitz, Arash Vahdat & Morteza Mardani-and
@yuqirose.bsky.social @ucsandiego.bsky.social
👇 See you next week in San Diego! Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2506.20024
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀: 3) 𝗣𝗵𝘆𝘀𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗺: ERDM matches the power spectra of operational physics-based models (IFS ENS), solving the "blurriness" problem common in AI weather models.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀: 1) Up to 🚀 𝟱𝟬% 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 in probabilistic CRPS skill on Navier-Stokes dynamics, with strong calibratio; 2) Up to 🌍 10% improvement on ERA5 global weather forecasting (1.5° resolution) over autoregressive EDM baselines;
𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: We unify rolling diffusion with the high-fidelity design of EDM by adapting EDMs core components—noise schedule, loss weighting, sampler—and supplementing it with a hybrid 3D backbone and a simple but effective initialization strategy.
The Gap: Existing methods struggle to balance fidelity and efficiency.
❌ Autoregressive models ignore temporal dependencies & may accumulate error
❌ Full "video" diffusion is computational- and data-inefficient
We chose a third path: Rolling Diffusion—but gave it an upgrade..
🌍 Modeling chaos isn't just about predicting the next step—it's about modeling how uncertainty grows over time.🌪️
I’m thrilled to share Elucidated Rolling Diffusion Models (ERDM), accepted to #NeurIPS2025!
We unify rolling diffusion with EDM for forecasting complex systems🧵👇
Internship in our group at Mila in reinforcement learning + graphs for reducing energy use in buildings.
More info and submit an application by Jan 13 here:
forms.gle/TCChXnvSAHqz...
Questions? Email donna.vakalis@mila.quebec with [intern!] in the subject line.
Come talk to us tomorrow at Poster session 3: Thursday 11am-2pm at East Hall A-C #3905!
(Or ping me if you'd like to chat outside of the poster session!)
The new ACE2 climate emulator from Oliver Watt-Meyer et al has very compelling results, with results that look comparable to NeuralGCM. Congrats to the AI2 team!
arxiv.org/abs/2411.112...
Thanks!
🙌🏽🙋🏽♂️
I made a starter pack for those working in or adjacent to Machine Learning for Earth System Modeling! Apologies if I forgot anyone, and feel free to suggest people to add :)
go.bsky.app/C5DQNCe
