Kevin Erdmann

The state of housing economics.

Another cool paper and more notes on a bad paper on housing supply Evan Soltas and Jonathan Gruber have published a paper titled, “How Costly Is Permitting in Housing Development?”.

Some notes on the new Soltas-Gruber paper on the costs of permitting. And some final thoughts on the supply-skeptical San Francisco Fed paper.

kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/another-co...

“Trump is unqualified to be president on every dimension. For now, policy differences have to be set aside until we get some adults back in charge.”

Bernie Sanders: “Hold my beer.”

WOW. 19 people, all who were imprisoned and mistreated in a foreign prison at the direct command of the United States, are brave enough to say “We are innocent, and we will endure more time imprisoned to prove that.”

I can only admire the enormous courage such a move takes.

New Houses for Sale by Stage of Construction, Completed New Houses for Sale by Stage of Construction, Completed

Should have used this measure, which has a longer history.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1SQiP

New Houses for Sale by Stage of Construction, Completed New Houses for Sale by Stage of Construction, Completed

It’s hilarious how scary the completed new home inventory must look to those who don’t understand the scale of the housing shortage.

Anyway, take note because it’s about to decline pretty sharply. It will be quite a bit below the current level by year’s end.
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1SQbB

I don't know if they are all based on the same category of fallacious reasoning, but I think they must be sort of related.

I feel like the Venn Diagram of people who say
"Production moves where wages are lower because they are a competitive advantage."

"It is wrong to let foreign workers come in to the country to pick produce just because Americans insist on being paid more."
&
"AI will take all the jobs."
is a circle.

Surveys | Quantifying home price expectations Pulsenomics monitors attitudes and expectations concerning the U.S. Housing economy. Learn more.

Home price expectations seem to have moderated.

pulsenomics.com/surveys/#hom...

Under current conditions, there will inevitably be a building boom, and it will be associated with moderating home prices and declining homeownership rates, and I’m afraid those trends will break enough brains to lead to policy choices that kill it.

I wouldn’t be surprised if effective ADHD medications are a significant reason for declining crime rates over the past couple of decades.
Those medicines change lives, deeply.

New Privately-Owned Housing Units Completed: Units in Buildings with 5 Units or More/Population*1000 New Privately-Owned Housing Units Completed: Units in Buildings with 5 Units or More/Population*1000

Our little apartment boomlet wasn’t nothing. But it’s kind of pitiful. And if it was enabled by Covid distancing rules that made local feces throwing sessions less effective, it is a sign of how massive a post-zoning building boom would be.

fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1SEtn

As the guy who wrote the book on zoning abolition, I'd like to go on record as saying: if you can use zoning to stop the concentration camps, fucking go for it.

Just think what a badass country you would be if a country next door was 10 times your size and one of their most celebrated unifying national stories is that every 40 years or so they manage to win a sporting match against you.

US price/rent ratios will very likely end up back below 17 again. The question is will it be the 1950-1970 path (a building boom) or the 2007-2012 path (demand shock)?

btw, the 2008 demand shock never ended so it can’t be repeated.

The response to Trump’s escalation of illegal tariffs in defiance of the US Constitution and SCOTUS, in addition to a global boycott of US products, services and tourism, should be the expelling of US diplomats from all attacked nations, and the initiation of global sanctions, until he is removed.

Locations of new homes built in Switzerland in 2018

Country-wide effects of new housing supply: Evidence from moving chains, by Lukas Hauck and Frederic Kluser

Another new paper on housebuilding and vacancy chains, this time with data on every Swiss resident & housing unit! An interesting context given Switzerland's high immigration, very large rented sector and strong tenancy rent controls... frederickluser.github.io/files/Moving...

it would make way more sense to have road portion of development cost charges levied on the purchase of cars than it does to have it on the purchase of houses.

Why the "Lesser Included Action" Argument for IEEPA Tariffs Fails - Marginal REVOLUTION The Supreme Court yesterday struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs, holding that the statute’s authorization to “regulate… importation” doesn’t include the power to impose tariffs. The majority’s strongest...

Great firefighter analogy.

marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevo...

You know, Republicans are allowed to just say "that's enough of this" and act accordingly. I won't cast any shade or wag fingers as long as we get back to democracy.

In case the labelling isn't clear, it is quarterly mortgage origination volume for each range of credit scores, compared to origination volume for scores above 759.

Today's post is for subscribers only, but I thought some of you might be interested in this chart, which I think shows the ridiculous scale of the mortgage crackdown in 2008 very well.

Absolutely bonkers.

December 2025 Residential Construction
open.substack.com/pub/kevinerd...

So many thoughtful and happy athletes on this year’s team.

marketurbanism.com/2026/02/16/s...

Oops. He blocked me for being, admittedly, a bit rude. I suppose that'll learn ya about tagging me.😅 Sorry.

I’m not interested because you’re being sincere.

Ah. Makes sense. I stand corrected. And, of course monopoly profits are famously unrelated to the enforcement of barriers to competition. It’s the standard Ricardian result. I hadn‘t considered that.