Kevin Erdmann

Right now the current streak is 55 months ...

Goldman: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish a preliminary estimate of the benchmark revision to March 2025 nonfarm payrolls on September 9th. We estimate a downward revision on the order of 550-950k”

This list is long! Why didn’t we have this list before?!

It’s going to be hilarious when the July employee numbers need to be revised down in a month or two.

Do I need to write the post about the technical corrections I would make to the positions of today’s bls defenders and how this isn’t technically authoritarianism? Or are a couple of you already working on that one?

/s

By all means, let the guy who told the secretary of state of Georgia "I just want to find 11,780 votes" make decisions about whose numbers are wrong.

Hear me out…

What if we managed to get Trump a candy bar that, inside the wrapper, had a golden ticket which invited him and a plus 1 to a rare tour of a certain chocolate factory, and, you know, just see how it goes?

Yeah. A key part of the evangelical self-id is that they are specially equipped to see false prophets that are too tricky for the rest of us to catch.
Then a guy comes practically with horns and cloven hooves and they’re like “this guys got something special. This is the hill we’re dying on.”

No? In the before Trump times I didn’t even vote for a lot of monogamous democrats.

I’m starting to think that when we find out that a married presidential candidate paid silence money to a porn star after he arranged to have “relations” with her, in the future that might be a halfway decent signal of fitness for office.

Day in Trump's economy: > Wake up, check the news > BLS: "10 billion new jobs created" > Check my phone to see what today's tariff rates are. > Norway up 20%, Cambodia down 5% > Go to my iphone assembly line job where I make $7.25/hour > Spend next 4 hours putting chips inside phones > Take 15 minute break > Check my shitfartpisscoin holdings > Rugged > Watch the FOMC meeting > FOMC is just Trump > Trump goes on stage and announces he's raising rates from -10% to -5% > Also announces date of Jay Powell's public execution > AI manager scolds me for taking 16 minutes on my 15 minute break > It's only been 12 minutes > Call employee help line to complain > It's also AI > Go home frustrated > Complain to my girlfriend about my job > She's also AI

Imagine thinking everyone else in the world, including decades-long number-crunchers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, lives their lives focused on making you look good or bad. Anything that happens is things other people do to you on purpose.

Then imagine thinking someone like that is admirable.

More housing supply shouldn't bring prices down. Lately, this sort of chart has been a popular citation for housing supply advocates.

kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/more-housi...

JUST IN: A federal judge has blocked Secrretary Noem's move to terminate temporary status for Nicaragua, Honduran and Nepaii immigrants, finding the cancelation was likely rooted in "racial animus." storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...

I suspect a lot of the scoffers here never use gas cans and aren’t even aware of how they were changed.

Yes.

Actually, right now I think a lot of it is that seasonality has changed a lot in the last 3 years, and builders and analysts haven't had quite 100% faith that contracts which used to be signed in spring for fall deliveries will now be signed and delivered in fall.

YouTube video by TenGolf Orangutan Driving Golf Cart

Not AI.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ_0...

We're back into a phase where every builder beats earnings.

Since we KNOW how important mortgage rates are to homebuilder sales, somebody should study the weird phenomenon among homebuilders where the operations teams all execute better when rates are high and worse when they are low.

New Housing Slows Rent Growth Most for Older, More Affordable Units The nationwide housing shortage has driven rents up more in low-income neighborhoods than in the U.S. overall, but in areas that have recently added large amounts of housing, rents have fallen the mos...

Pew spitting out truth bombs.
www.pew.org/en/research-...

Framing Futures: Pro-Housing Legislation Goes Vertical in 2025 With no relief from high home prices and rents, more and more state legislators are interested in pursuing housing reform. As a result, state legislatures set new records for the number and strength o...

USA! USA!
www.mercatus.org/research/pol...

After outcry, L.A. restricts duplexes in Pacific Palisades Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass is restricting duplex construction in Pacific Palisades after an executive order from Gov. Gavin Newsom to weaken a state housing law. But despite fears of greater density...

Fascinated by the reaction in Pacific Palisades to duplexes vs. casitas.

Roughly 15% of permit applications include an ADU and the process is streamlined. A handful of duplex projects proposed and the outcry pushed the governor to exempt the Palisades from state law. www.latimes.com/homeless-hou...

As someone who tracked the Russia probe closely and then tracked the effort to discredit the Russia probe closely, its brain-breaking (though not surprising) to see the administration trot out the same old debunked, cherry-picked shit in an effort to retcon Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Occasional reminder: People will voluntarily identify their prejudices. Just say “There’s a housing shortage.” And they’ll say “No there isn’t.” Then they will list every group they have irrational prejudice against and say we’d have plenty of homes if we made them sell theirs.

We're in the middle of a multi-decade process of moving everyone out of our stagnant old cities.
How hot the economy is everywhere else is a function of the speed of that.
New Fed mandate: Target a stable migration rate out of the old cities to keep inflation & employment stable.

YouTube video by Sandi Bachom NYC Immigration Court Violent ICE Arrest of Man Granted Continuance By Judge WATCH TILL END! 7/29/25

Today at immigration court, this young man was arrested after the federal judge granted a continuance until 2027! ICE agents violently dragged him out of court. They are defying federal judges. NOBODY can help. Listen till the end. Horrifying. It's torture

Where you started with this thread and where you have ended up is *chefs kiss*.

No notes.

10/10

Revisiting One Last Funny Chart Sorry.

Did the Fed cause the housing bubble by RAISING rates?
kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/revisiting...

Sorry. I left out the legend. This is changes in wage growth by wage level. 1st & 4th quartile.

www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-gr...

Every single city meeting about housing - literally every single one - consists of investors trying to get approval for new homes and local residents angrily throwing out shit-head reasons why they shouldn't. Get a clue.