Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

Old jobs, new jobs: How the labor landscape has changed two decades after trade with China opened | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Employment levels recovered in the most affected U.S. labor markets, but the composition of the labor force has changed

Decades after US-China trade increased, how have local economies and the workers they support fared? Manufacturing continued its decline, but employment growth in non-manufacturing was stronger. It's a story with many sides, as our article explains: https://bit.ly/4muNB5N

A bar chart illustrating the share of earners vs the share of earnings

One way to think about income inequality is to compare a group’s share of earners to its share of earnings. For ex, men are 51% of earners in IDDA but receive 61% of income (gap of+10 ppts). Hispanic earners are 15.4% but earn 11.5% (gap of -3.9 ppts). https://bit.ly/46XR1Fu

2025 Institute Research Conference, November 13, 2025, Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

Mark your calendars for the 2025 Institute Research Conference, a showcase of frontier-style research that the Institute engages with and supports.

Register now and we'll send you a calendar invite with the livestream link 👇

https://bit.ly/4gSFopm #EconSky

How women’s labor has shaped the U.S. economy | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis When women’s labor force participation was growing, recessions were milder

Our new article looks at an interesting economic relationship: when women’s labor force participation was growing, recessions were milder. To better understand the U.S. economy's business cycles, then, we should look at men's and women's labor separately https://bit.ly/44VtB5r

Inquiring minds: Q&A with Lukas Freund | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

In the newest installment of Inquiring Minds, @lukasfreund.bsky.social talks about incremental vs radical innovation and why the scale of technological change over last 200 years matters. Read it here: https://bit.ly/3I6HHIN

New moms “opt down” to lower-paying firms | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Diverging paths for new mothers and fathers widen the gender earnings gap

New research: First-time moms not only cut back on hours--they move to progressively lower-paying firms during the decade after birth. Meanwhile, new dads keep climbing the ladder. More findings from visiting scholar @btimpe.bsky.social & co-authors. https://bit.ly/4mONNvK

Graph illustrating the average annual income growth for second quartile, 2014-2019

What does income growth look like for earners of different racial and ethnic groups? For earners with income in the second quartile of the distribution in 2014, average annual income growth was $3,892 a year for Asian earners and $1,843 for AIAN earners. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/idda

A graph illustrating women's earnings relative to men's 2019

In 2019, women's earnings at the median were 74% of men’s. This ratio was driven largely by White earners, who have the lowest W-to-M ratio of the racial and ethnic groups in IDDA. The earnings of Black women were closet to parity. For more, visit: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/idda  

Inquiring minds: Q&A with Lukas Freund | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

For this installment of Inquiring Minds, Institute intern Sydney Dettman sat down with visiting scholar @lukasfreund.bsky.social to discuss opportunity costs, technological change, and the incredible life of Albert Hirschman. Read more bit.ly/3I6HHIN

What happened to the college wage premium? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis For decades, the wages of college-educated workers rose more than wages of workers with fewer years of formal education. That gap has stopped growing.

Earning a college degree has been a path to higher wages for a very long time. But for last 20 years, the gap in wages of college-educated and HS–educated workers has plateaued. Read our new article about research from Bengali, Valletta, & Zhao at the San Francisco Fed. bit.ly/4mUUNaZ

Job transformation, specialization, and the labor market effects of AI, Lukas B. Freund and Lukas F. Mann Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute working paper

Rapid advances in #AI means machines may take over an expanding set of tasks. Who will gain and who will lose from this wave of automation? Visiting scholars @lukasfreund.bsky.social @bostoncollege.bsky.social & Lukas F. Mann answer this question in their new paper. bit.ly/46xUzAI

Graph illustrating the change in men's and women's earnings over time IDDA INSIGHT

For men and women, earnings growth was lowest at 50th percentile between 2005 and 2019. Women saw stronger earnings growth than men, but they continue to earn considerably less across the distribution. Discover more with IDDA: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/idda  

Inquiring minds: Q&A with Lukas Freund | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

While some worry about the negative impacts AI may have on our future, @lukasfreund.bsky.social is researching who and how they may benefit. Read about his current and future research in the newest installment of Inquiring Minds. bit.ly/3I6HHIN

What happened to the college wage premium? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis For decades, the wages of college-educated workers rose more than wages of workers with fewer years of formal education. That gap has stopped growing.

The college wage premium doubled from 1980 to 2000 but has plateaued since. What does this mean for future graduates? Our new article from Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social explores new research from the San Francisco Fed on the trajectory of the college wage premium: bit.ly/4mUUNaZ

graph illustrating the share of top earners by age and sex IDDA Insight

Who are the top 10 percent? It's no surprise older workers make up a bigger share of top earners than younger workers. But there are significant disparities between men and women in each age bucket: Men aged 45-54 are 32% while women that age are 14%. https://bit.ly/46XR1Fu

Job transformation, specialization, and the labor market effects of AI, Lukas B. Freund and Lukas F. Mann Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute working paper

As AI automates information-processing tasks, customer-facing and coordination tasks rise in significance. The latest Institute working paper shows this prompts some workers to move to lower-paying jobs, while other workers see their wages rise. https://bit.ly/46xUzAI

New moms “opt down” to lower-paying firms | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Diverging paths for new mothers and fathers widen the gender earnings gap

In the decade after a birth, on average new moms move to progressively lower-paying companies--with implications for the gender wage gap. Read our article on new findings by Institute visiting scholar @btimpe.bsky.social w/ @rebecca-jack.bsky.social & Danny Tannenbaum bit.ly/4mONNvK

Job Transformation, Specialization, and the Labor Market Effects of AI | Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

Rapid advances in AI means machines may take over an expanding set of tasks. Who will gain and who will lose from this wave of automation? Visiting scholars @lukasfreund.bsky.social & Lukas F. Mann answer this question in their new paper. bit.ly/46xUzAI

What happened to the college wage premium? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis For decades, the wages of college-educated workers rose more than wages of workers with fewer years of formal education. That gap has stopped growing.

While the costs of a college degree continue to rise, the financial return has plateaued. Research from Leila Bengali, Robert Valletta, and Cindy Zhao shows that demand, rather than supply, is the main factor behind this stagnation. Read our new article: https://bit.ly/4mUUNaZ

Image of a cup of coffee next to a note card and a pen. The notecard reads "Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute" and "Dear friend, Let's keep in touch, Love, the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute

📬 Want research that goes beyond the headlines?

The Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute explores how people, families, and communities experience the U.S. economy.

Sign up for our newsletter for Institute news, insights, and events:
https://bit.ly/34cbIyV

New moms “opt down” to lower-paying firms | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Diverging paths for new mothers and fathers widen the gender earnings gap

In the decade after a birth, on average new moms move to progressively lower-paying companies--with implications for the gender wage gap. Read our article on new findings by Institute visiting scholar Brenden Timpe w/ Rebecca Jack & Danny Tannenbaum https://bit.ly/4mONNvK

Job transformation, specialization, and the labor market effects of AI, Lukas B. Freund and Lukas F. Mann Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute working paper

Rapid advances in AI means machines may take over an expanding set of tasks. Who will gain and who will lose from this wave of automation? Visiting scholars Lukas Freund & Lukas F. Mann answer this question in their new paper. https://bit.ly/46xUzAI

What does research tell us about the complex landscape of incentives, penalties, and nudges that shape how Americans save? @oiginstitute.bsky.social Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social picks up the magic 8 ball and digs into the economics: bit.ly/3Ep09u5

What happened to the college wage premium? | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis For decades, the wages of college-educated workers rose more than wages of workers with fewer years of formal education. That gap has stopped growing.

In 2010, there were 1.2 job postings requiring a college degree for every 1 posting that did not. By 2020, the ratio was 0.6. Our new article from Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social looks at how the labor market for college grads has changed: bit.ly/4mUUNaZ

New moms “opt down” to lower-paying firms | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Diverging paths for new mothers and fathers widen the gender earnings gap

Firms differ in their tradeoffs among wages, commute, flexibility, amenities. Our new article looks at research on where new mothers vs new fathers end up and how it matters for workers and employers. https://bit.ly/4mONNvK

Decades after US-China trade increased, how have local economies and the workers they support fared? Manufacturing continued its decline, but employment growth in non-manufacturing was stronger. It's a story with many sides, as our article explains: bit.ly/4muNB5N

On left, image of 4 past covers of For All magazine. On right, text that says: A magazine from the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute, Subscribe for free today

For All explores the ideas and people shaping our understanding of opportunity and inclusion in today’s economy. Sign up for your free subscription today and have twice-yearly issues delivered to your door: https://bit.ly/3fbazhS

Year in review: Summary of 2024 Institute Working Papers | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Recent working papers study how labor demand and supply respond to economic and technological changes, determinants of housing prices, and more

Do workers change their occupation, industry, or location when there is a change to labor demand? Yes. But the extent of those changes depends on whether demand goes up or down, and how economically diverse their city is. https://bit.ly/4jEuCEb

How women’s labor has shaped the U.S. economy | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis When women’s labor force participation was growing, recessions were milder

From 1983 to 2007, the economy’s fluctuations became milder. From 1991 to 2018, employment didn’t recover as quickly as other economic indicators after a recession. Our new article explores Stefania Albanesi's research on these phenomena: https://bit.ly/44VtB5r

New moms “opt down” to lower-paying firms | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Diverging paths for new mothers and fathers widen the gender earnings gap

Most first-time moms & dads face new challenges balancing work & career. Research shows they take different paths, on average, w/ moms moving to lower-paying firms over time. @jeffhorwich.bsky.social‬ sums up findings by @btimpe.bsky.social Rebecca Jack and Daniel Tannenbaum https://bit.ly/4mONNvK