Jeff Horwich

As we edge closer to A Month-Without-a-CPI (or PCE, potentially) these data could play an important role in helping policymakers understand the lay of the land.

I live in St. Paul. I know where the barges hang out.

A stressed-out cat. AI via Adobe Stock

It's glum out there, per new @philadelphiafed.bsky.social survey: "Respondents’ net sentiment continued to decrease and is at its lowest point since the beginning of the LIFE Survey. For the first time, sentiment is negative across all demographic groups." www.philadelphiafed.org/consumer-fin...

Table of numbers showing inflation changes in multiple categories

Emoji-filled look under the hood at today's #PCE #inflation at tariff-sensitive lines: Mild goods inflation continues, though appliances & computer prices retreat. Furniture 🪑& bikes 🚴 are popping, garments 👗now rising too. Coffee surge ☕️no surprise, but look at produce.🥑🍅

With granular country-of-origin, this private data speaks to critical current questions in a way CPI/PCE cannot. Talked to Alberto for @minneapolisfed.bsky.social after he stopped here for a seminar! bsky.app/profile/minn...

On the hot topic of whether there is *any* evidence of tariffs in inflation data, enter unique data from @harvard.edu @harvardhbs.bsky.social Pricing Lab. It leaves little question on that basic matter and sketches path of prices ahead for retail goods. (Spoiler: We are likely just getting started.)

The Fed's tools to conduct monetary policy were changed dramatically by the Great Recession--a shift described as moving from a "corridor" to a "floor" system. Walk the halls for two minutes with @jeffhorwich.bsky.social to get a little more #FedFluent about the Fed's operating framework. #EconSky

How much are tariffs passing through to consumers?

In a new "Basket" Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School Pricing Lab tells @jeffhorwich.bsky.social the #tariff effect is now apparent in import and domestic goods--although U.S. retailers appear to be eating much of the tariffs for the moment.

Many Americans worry about saving enough for retirement. Could simple changes to #retirement savings infrastructure affect the number of Americans who are prepared to live well in retirement? Read more in For All magazine from @oiginstitute.bsky.social: bit.ly/3Ep09u5

What does research tell us about the complex landscape of incentives, penalties, and nudges that shape how Americans save? @oiginstitute.bsky.social Senior Writer @lisacamnermckay.bsky.social picks up the magic 8 ball and digs into the economics: bit.ly/3Ep09u5

The Billionaires Fueling the Quest for Longer Life A network of ultrawealthy investors including Peter Thiel and Sam Altman are infusing the longevity industry with cash and making big bets on where the science is headed.

Sobering piece on staggering societal resources devoted to helping the 1% live to 150. Wouldn't be it something to see these billions instead directed toward, say, fatal childhood diseases or childhood malnutrition? www.wsj.com/health/welln...

Curious now to what extent this trend might offset drop in labor force from changes in immigration. Time to play with some data...

It's my particular pleasure to write and produce these video wrap-ups of our "Beige Book" reports in collaboration with our skilled team of regional economists. Another way @minneapolisfed.bsky.social is setting the standard for public engagement on social media. Have a look/listen!

The spindly "spider" from @atlantafed.org is a terrific visualization. Updated today with new JOLTS: On every measure except for initial jobless claims and job-finding (where we are close), we are now in a less healthy posture than one year ago. Hiring rate is approaching a long-term low.

Hello, Bluesky.