Nick Bassill

I love these timelines that the @nyswrcc.bsky.social team puts out in scenarios like this. If you're traveling for Thanksgiving next week in/near NY, keep an eye on the weather.

Meanwhile, in NY:

Storms like this highlight the influence terrain has on (winter) weather in NY. With low pressure across the Southern Tier, the ADK acts to channel flow down the Mohawk and induce cold air damning in northern NY. Meanwhile, higher elevations stay warmer. Classic icing set-up for northern NY. #nywx

I love following election results in Maine, because you get hilarious precincts like this. My favorite part is the ">95% of the vote in" estimate in a 3 vote district.

Seems like the second according to this?
bsky.app/profile/thea...

I'm going to assume the "Tom Brady" rule will be in effect, and so Ohtani will win. But I agree.

I've never seen a World Series where both teams were so allergic to scoring runners from 3rd with fewer than 2 outs.

If only there were extra long breaks, where there was no action because they gave one team's pitcher extra time to warm up. That would have been a great time. Too bad no scenario like that has happened repeatedly tonight.

I want to acknowledge that the hurricane hunters have been working relentlessly and in dangerous conditions - *without pay* - to do their best to help other countries (in this case).

I wish some in our federal government had half the dedication to public good and fellow humans.

That's so cool!

Hardly the most important aspect of #Melissa, but the overshooting top about halfway through this loop on the south-central part of Jamaica is interesting (visible as a white speck that grows to a tiny circle). Likely caused by a topographical boost to already intense convection.

Yeah, those estimates are used a bunch, especially in the Western Pacific, where actual reconnaissance flights are very rare (or the eastern Atlantic). Definitely better than nothing, but the in situ observations are treated as the ground truth. Still, that *estimate* is the highest ever estimate!

As impressive as both are, you can't compare satellite estimates to in situ observations. It's apples and oranges.

Still, Melissa's observed minimum sea level pressure seems to be about 900 mb so far.

I know rainbow color schemes have gotten a bad rap lately for accessibility reasons, but ... they're really perfect for hurricanes like #Melissa.

One of the things that got me hooked on weather was watching these animations at a young age.

I hope it's as good as the plan Trump rolled out after all those times he totally promised he would.

Jordan Love is such an underrated great QB this year. Little run game, banged up o-line and WR group, and is 29-35 for 360 yards against a nice Pittsburgh pass rush with arguably 3 drops.

I'm glad a big market baseball team, who also has the highest payroll, is going to the World Series yet again. Yay. Whoo. Much interest.

Yeah, and he probably should have left in Snell yesterday (certainly in hindsight). Could have had 2 straight complete games if Yamamoto goes the distance.

Pretty good for a scrappy team whose luxury tax alone is only a few 10s of millions more than their opponents' payroll. 😂

As a Brewers' fan, this is already a nauseating viewing experience. Unabashed gushing over anything Dodgers, all borderline pitches getting called in whatever way benefits LA, etc. Gross.

Here's the likely final map of "how many days since" the @nysmesonet.org stations here observed a given gust/direction combo.

As suggested below, several stations had combos that haven't been seen in many years. Despite "only" ~45 mph gusts, there have been 100s of downed trees & thousands outages.

Now that we're within range of the HRRR for this storm, here's a statewide map of "how many days since" a given gust/direction combo was forecast by the HRRR.

Lots of big numbers in SE NY. Peak gusts may not be noteworthy (value-wise) in most places, but the unusual NE direction may produce damage.

She's been unironically "good" on many topics lately? Bizarro world.

One important part of the possible coastal storm is that winds will be roughly from the NE. This is already a rare direction, and last winter featured basically zero nor'easters.

*If* ~45 mph NE gusts occur in Long Island, it could be 1000+ days since the last occurrence. Rare wind = more damage.

If you want evidence of bigfoot, you have to go about one hundred miles northeast, to the Redfield site. 😀

YouTube video by flashbacktoon bart licks subway pole

Maybe your child is just a fan of classic Simpsons? youtu.be/xUFKOzbprD0?...

Sadly, nothing on the camera. Though if you want to over-analyze, it does look like some of the corn stalks/leaves in front of the site were jostled more than usual from frame to frame in the 5 minute period between images.

Thanks for sharing! In our case, there are two different anemometers working in tandem: sonic + prop, which had similar readings. Since there was a clear change in both pressure and irradiance, we think it's real.

FWIW, here's a plot of raw 12 second pressure data (red) and the gust time (blue).

Minor mystery: the @nysmesonet.org's York site gusted to 45.4 mph today, when no other stations were even half that. There is no rain, or even many clouds in NY today.

The meteogram shows a tiny pressure blip, and a dip in irradiance. Differential heating-driven pressure wave? Dust devil?

A former governor losing his own party's primary counts as "resurgent"???

I recognize that significant impacts from #Imelda are still possible without a direct landfall, but it's curious that the @accuweather.com track makes landfall while the NHC forecast keeps the storm offshore.

Your annual reminder to trust the experts at NHC & NWS.