@chrisjparker.bsky.social
Senior Analyst, climate science and data lead @thecccuk.bsky.social - UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. "that uk hydrologist guy who knows about extremes" Hydrologist and climate scientist. Opinions are my own.
Join us at the #EMS26, the European Meteorological Society meeting this September in Utrecht for our session on high-impact extremes!
📍 UP3.7. High-impact climate extremes: physical understanding, storylines, impacts and projections
lnkd.in/efWVVCYX
Abstract submission deadline is 27th of March.
Some dates for your diary - our next statutory publications 📅
A huge amount of analysis has gone into these and we look forward to sharing them with you soon.
Most 2025 global temperatures are now out (degrees C above 1850-1900 baseline)
1.41 HadCRUT5
1.44 Berkeley
1.46 JRA-3Q
1.47 Copernicus
1.53 DCENT-I
NOAA and NASA GISS values will be public at 2pm UK time and but based on already public Jan-Nov data they will likely be between 1.3 and 1.4 degC.
While the world sometimes seems metaphorically on fire right now, global warming is still progressing as well.
In 2025, global warming delivered the 3rd warmest year since measurements began. A modest step down from 2024's records, but still well above 20th century norms.
🧪🧵
*reasonably
Do you have a chart of the GHG emissions profile out to 2100? I am guessing this is unreasonable consistent with the latest UN gap report conditional NDCs +all net zero pledges. The amount of removals needed makes me sceptical regarding the actual feasibility.
Just clicked the link - the answer is yes!
To clarify, are you referring to 1.5°C by 2100 and therefore an overshoot scenario?
@ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org and @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org do you have any plans to update the supporting datases for 2025 from this excellent analysis?
interactive.carbonbrief.org/attribution-...
Incredible opportunity to undertake vital research on UK drought projections with an amazing supervisory team!
It's good news that the Government are taking the impacts of climate change seriously and have sought our advice to strengthen adaptation objectives.
Read the letter published today from Baroness Brown, Chair of the Adaptation Committee, to Emma Hardy MP 👇
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/...
The people I work with are not stupid people and our climate predictions of 30 years ago of global warming have proved to be accurate. Just saying. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...
Thanks Zeke! This is very helpful.
Amazing! I have sent you an email.
@climateflavors.bsky.social @climateofgavin.bsky.social @hausfath.bsky.social
@drlaurasuarez.bsky.social
Hey Bluesky hivemind, climate modelling data question. Does anyone know where I could find CESM2 and MPI large ensemble annual global mean surface temperature timeseries?
Third heatwave of the summer and it is only the start of July!
🌡️ Heat is building across the UK this week, temperatures could reach 32-33°C during the weekend 👇
The UK hasn't experienced a severe drought since the '90s or an extreme one since the '70s. This has led to complacency in drought preparedness. With climate change, future droughts could be worse than anything previously experienced.
High warming rate fuels record-breaking weather
The longer our measurements, the fewer record-breaking events we should observe.
The opposite is the case - many more records and higher record margins
I summarise the key takeaways of our @natrevearthenviron.nature.com article in a guest post.
New paper in ERL! We study the importance of resolution for the representation of climate extremes.
We use a new generation of km-scale models to show that many important details about temperature and precipitation extremes are hidden at CMIP6-like resolutions.
doi.org/10.1088/1748...
Found the quote, thanks. It references this paper using the median of the UN gap report scenario set to define future rates if warning. Having looked at that dataset the median won't include uncertainties in aerosol forcing or ECS.
iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Did you share the wrong paper? I couldn't find the quote and the paper doesn't look at global climate models.
I agree the place to look is a comparison between observed and modelled ocean heat content. Struggled to find recent work on this but I assume it exists.
If the recent surface temperature warming is broadly inline with model projections but the models don't project the large change in energy imbalance does that not suggest the climate model sensitivity is too high? Or that sensitivity estimates based on surface temperatures is the wrong metric?
Updated updated notes on the recent acceleration in the argument about the recent acceleration in warming which may or may not be happening or may only appear to be happening (or not, you idiot). Either way it appeared in the New York Times.
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/02/16/a...
Thanks, John! I really appreciate these summaries. I expect moderate acceleration from increasing forcing, but also a wider range of internal variability as the climate warms - making 23/24 tricky to unpack.
⚠️Global warming caused by humans is advancing at 0.27°C per decade – the highest rate since records began.
This is one of the indicators updated every year by over 60 international scientists in the annual Indicators of Global Climate Change report – published today. doi.org/10.5194/essd... /1
New infrastructure should be climate resilient from the Inception. HS2 and Sizewell are reasonable examples for flood risk. There are embedded processes that are starting to address this but they are often superficial and don't go far enough. Certainly more needs to be done.
evidence suggests it does little to manage large floods in big catchments. We need a combination of engineered and natural solutions thinking holistically at catchment scales. Unfortunately flooding is extremely complex - every catchment and every flood event is different with no simple solutions.
There is a strict requirement that government funded flood schemes must not increase risks elsewhere. This is generally done by making space for water and providing large storage areas. Yes, natural flood management and upland reforestation is important to provide resilience but