Mike Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA

🚨LCDefense III
4:35pm Delphine Crespo @longcovidaragon.bsky.social
5:10pm Dr. Ciara Steele @cleanairie.bsky.social
5:45pm Elisa Perego PhD @elisaperego78.bsky.social
6:20pm Pamela Morrison @lcaireland.bsky.social
6:55pm Angela L. @lcawarenessint.bsky.social
7:35pm Devin Russell Long COVID Foundation

Instagram Create an account or log in to Instagram - Share what you're into with the people who get you.

To enjoy this post with the musical work of Dr. Sean Mullen (@drseanmullen.bsky.social), you will have to head to Instagram.

www.instagram.com/p/DVaa3ZaDthH/

Illinois COVID levels have been "High" or "Very High" every week since Dec 20, 2025, per the CDC.

The PMC prevalence estimate is that 1 in 28 residents are actively infectious statewide, meaning a 59% chance of an exposure in a room of 25 people who aren't testing/isolating.

The CDC wastewater sites are monitoring <5% of the population in those states. It's not the exact system I would use, but it's "fine." I consider WV low quality too because they only have one site. The data here in Louisiana (2 sites) tend to also be volatile.

Mike's latest COVID-19 Heat Map is up. To fellow New Yorkers: 1 in 39 people are estimated to be actively infectious. Mask up, and increase ventilation to the extent feasible when indoors.

#medsky

You very obviously did not read my book!!!! lol. Regardless, the moral panic about kids & internet access is baseless and every single top academic who studies this topic has said so. The campaign u support is led by Heritage Foundation & Morality in Media, their goal is censorship and surveillance

PMC

Announcement #5:

SAVE THE DATE (Wed, Mar 11, 3PM ET)
We plan to host a town hall style meeting to discuss findings from the 2026 PMC Dashboard Survey.

We are waiting on confirmation from IT. Details forthcoming.
pmc19.com/data
8/8 🧵

Michael Hoerger, PhD, MSCR, MBA on Instagram: "March 2, 2026 - PMC COVlD Update (U.S.) We estimate ≈650,000 new daily infections nationwide. This week marks the 3rd consecutive month of this 12th wav... 24 likes, 0 comments - michael_hoerger on March 1, 2026: "March 2, 2026 - PMC COVlD Update (U.S.) We estimate ≈650,000 new daily infections nationwide. This week marks the 3rd consecutive month of th...

Announcement #4:

Phytocene, a musician who performs masked, released a single that is the backdrop of our PMC Instagram post this week.
😷🎶🎶🎶
www.instagram.com/p/DVX0Ojkjv1R/

7/8 🧵

Vote for Bailey to be featured on the cover of Muscle & Fitness HERS! True fitness is inclusive. By training in a respirator mask, I hope to demonstrate that access, health & dignity belong to everyone.

Announcement #3:

Dr. Bailey (@drbaileydevine-phd.bsky.social) is approaching the end of a multi-stage battle to pose masked on the cover of a fitness magazine.

Vote daily.
mshealthandfit.com/2026/bailey
6/8 🧵

Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: Long COVID Defense Series III. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting. Welcome! You are invited to join a meeting: Long COVID Defense Series III. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the meeting.

Announcement #2:

MaskTogetherAmerica (@togetherwemask.bsky.social) is hosting a talk on Long COVID on Wednesday, March 4, from 4:30-9:30 PM Eastern.

Register in advance. I will give the opening remarks.
us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
5/8 🧵

Announcement #1:

We recently published an article in JAMA-NO on the importance of multilayered COVlD mitigation in cancer.
4/8 🧵
bsky.app/profile/mich...

12 waves

Barometer, described in post

Year over year graph, described in post

Forecast, described in post

In the year-over-year graph, notice that transmission has subsided from mid-Feb to early Mar each of the past 5 years. This tracks with our forecast.

Levels are getting lower relative to recent months but "average" relative to the past year & pandemic.
3/8 🧵

Alabama High 1 in 37 (2.7%) Alaska Low 1 in 67 (1.5%) Arizona Very Low* 1 in 163 (0.6%) Arkansas Very Low* 1 in 118 (0.8%) California Very Low 1 in 208 (0.5%) Colorado Very Low 1 in 197 (0.5%) Connecticut High 1 in 38 (2.6%) Delaware High 1 in 36 (2.8%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 303 (0.3%) Florida Very Low 1 in 119 (0.8%) Georgia Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) Guam Very Low 1 in 213 (0.5%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 148 (0.7%) Idaho Low 1 in 81 (1.2%) Illinois Very High 1 in 28 (3.5%) Indiana High* 1 in 35 (2.9%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Kansas Low 1 in 66 (1.5%) Kentucky Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Louisiana Low 1 in 95 (1.0%) Maine High 1 in 32 (3.2%) Maryland High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Massachusetts Moderate 1 in 57 (1.8%) Michigan Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Minnesota High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Mississippi Very High* 1 in 26 (3.8%)

Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 76 (1.3%) New Daily Infections 645,000 Infections the Past Week 4,720,000 Infections in 2026 51,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 5.09 Long COVlD Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Daily Infections 32,000 to 129,000 Long COVlD Cases Resulting from New Weekly Infections 236,000 to 940,000 Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting from New Daily Infections 180 to 310 Excess Deaths Resulting from New Weekly Infections 1,300 to 2,200

Missouri Low* 1 in 104 (1.0%) Montana Very Low 1 in 133 (0.8%) Nebraska High 1 in 34 (3.0%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 143 (0.7%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 81 (1.2%) New Jersey Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 179 (0.6%) New York High* 1 in 29 (3.4%) North Carolina Low 1 in 92 (1.1%) North Dakota High* 1 in 39 (2.6%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 51 (1.9%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 176 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Low* 1 in 72 (1.4%) Rhode Island High 1 in 41 (2.5%) South Carolina Low 1 in 93 (1.1%) South Dakota Very High 1 in 23 (4.4%) Tennessee Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Texas Low 1 in 95 (1.1%) Utah Low 1 in 69 (1.4%) Vermont Moderate 1 in 53 (1.9%) Virginia Low 1 in 98 (1.0%) Washington Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) West Virginia Very High 1 in 15 (6.5%) Wisconsin High 1 in 40 (2.5%) Wyoming Very Low 1 in 150 (0.7%)

National risk table: Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.3% 2 2.6% 3 3.9% 4 5.2% 5 6.4% 10 12.4% 15 18.0% 20 23.3% 25 28.2% 30 32.8% 50 48.5% 75 63.0% 100 73.5% 200 93.0% 300 98.1%

🔥COVlD Hot Spots:
🔹MD: 1 in 39 actively infectious
🔹MN: 1 in 39
🔹NY: 1 in 39*
🔹ND: 1 in 39*
🔹CT: 1 in 38
🔹AL: 1 in 37
🔹DE: 1 in 36
🔹IN: 1 in 35*
🔹NE: 1 in 34
🔹ME: 1 in 32
🔹IL: 1 in 28
🔹MS: 1 in 26*
🔹SD: 1 in 23
🔹WV: 1 in 15*
*low data quality

2/8 🧵

Heat map using CDC data, showing 16 states in High (ND, NE, MN, WI, IN, AL, NY, MD, DE, CT, RI, ME) or Very High (SD, IL, MS, WV) transmission. PMC estimates 1 in 76 people (1.3%) actively infectious nationwide, and approximately 650,000 new daily infections. March 4 will mark 3 months in wave territory of >500,000 estimated new daily infections.

March 2, 2026 - PMC COVlD Update (U.S.)

We estimate ≈650,000 new daily infections nationwide. This week marks the 3rd consecutive month of this 12th wave.

Transmission is falling nationally but remains High/Very High in 16 states.

1/8 🧵

In the 2026 PMC Dashboard survey (n>1,000), the *MAJORITY* of respondents indicated both masking indoors in public unless medically necessary to remove it and using in-home air purifiers daily.

You may feel lonely from the ostracism, but you are not alone. #IYKYK

Fingers crossed Chicago will be in a much better place in two weeks. We shall see.

😂 That got a belly laugh out of me. Thanks for the humor

California had a gigantic summer wave. There is nothing special about a particular state when there is very little variation in universal precautions, unfortunately.

Indiana has had a pretty brutal past 6 months on the COVlD front. Presently or soon, you may notice an uptick in Long COVID issues among students or more students out for family bereavement.

I posted this video a few months on other platforms. There are some shutdown gaps, but overall very bad.

Indiana peeps: there’s something really bad going around. I’ve had conscientious students miss three classes from high fever and bad cough. One fainted while standing (not in class!). At least two students have tested positive for flu and another for COVID. Take care!

Indiana has had a pretty brutal past 6 months on the COVlD front. Presently or soon, you may notice an uptick in Long COVID issues among students or more students out for family bereavement.

I posted this video a few months on other platforms. There are some shutdown gaps, but overall very bad.

If that was true, I'm pretty sure I wouldn't be hearing about it from some random mustachioed man on the internet..

It's just the new daily infections x 7. The average infection duration is approximately 7 days.

Sorry, misread your question. It's about 6.1 million.

Very few people are willing to have a real conversation about why everything feels off.

The first post in the thread is not visible to me, deleted, blocked, or someone I have blocked. Early estimates of transmission are based on Biobot (CDC contractor) and IHME true case estimates. It is a time period of more uncertainty, but there is still good agreement between the sources.

Your rhetoric is actually anti-vaxx. One of the reasons many people no longer get vaccinated against COVID is because too many people have overstated vaccine efficacy (to deride masking). A lot of people get the vax, think they are fully protected, develop LC, blame it on the vax, & stop boosting.

People who mask consistently have among the highest vaccination rates. At the population level, utilization is low, and they wane in protecting against infection considerably by 3-6 months. Multi-layered mitigation reduces risk.

Two screenshots against a background of a blue sky with thin, scattered clouds. The first is a map of the US showing COVID transmission, with states colored pale yellow to maroon depending on severity. Oregon is pale yellow, which means “Very Low”. Text warns that this data is based off February 14th. The second screenshot is text that reads, “77% of Oregon community wastewater treatment centers were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on the most recent sample.”

It’s Wastewater Wednesday! How are COVID levels? We’re using two sources to help us keep track of the country and our state of Oregon.

Thank you to @michael-hoerger.bsky.social for the map and graph, and OHA for continuing to track data coming from our wastewater treatment centers!