War has changed. Don't underestimate what a couple of FPVs assembled locally and launched from a truck can do.
europeans when asked to help unblock the strait of hormuz
This should go on a board in the Rose Garden! Enjoy Liberation Day 😂
What are we even discussing? I think we both are on the same page and in agreement here, I am just nerding out on the "long term view" side of things.
Until people as high up as Nebenzya publicly state that they are "earnest Ukrainians" - you won't have to wait long for my call 🙃 Alexeyev is a strong example, but a quick search gives you dozens of names who are senior and loyal enough now to get such a position relatively soon.
Again: it's "unity" in a sense that if you conform - you get part of the loot (like Ukrainian Hetmans who got Slobozhanshyna from Kyrym Tatars, for their alliance with moskau + successful war effort) and if you don't - your family gets death and torture. We should not mix up ethnicity with identity.
Since Pereyaslav it has been an imperial tradition, that Ukrainians occupy mid-officer roles. I tell the story of my relative who had a very Central Europe kind of biography, to point: he got a royal status for his war heroics. It was a valid route for UA families to get from serfdom to "elite".
It was hilarious when we shot down the Beriev A-50 above Kuban, one of the main OSINT videos showing whats up on the ground was filmed on the phone by a local who is shouting "dyvyy dyvyy hlopci" yeaaa, dyvy hlopchara.. you're "rushan" - sure dude 😂🤣
If you look at the census: In the 19th century there were more % Ukrainians living in many towns that are now in rusia, than in Kyiv or Odessa. Now? All those Kovals and Sviridenkos are "ruskies" and get offended when you say that their "local rushan dialect" is actually Pidgin Ukrainian.
Trust never played a role. If they win, 90% of Ukrainians that survive the purges will have kids that will identify as "russian". Like the people of today's Bilgorod and Kurs'k, who according to official census data magically went from 80% Ukrainian ("maloros") to 95% rusky from 1860 to 1960.
There has never been a soviet or rusky-empire unity. It is enforced through carrots and sticks, brutal punishment or access to loot + divide and conquer tactics. People now under investigation for corruption charges as part of Myndich Gate have real estate in the classics: Dubai, Zürich.. moskau!
..it is lost on the West, because there is no context when you study the works of these fucker slavers at Harvard. But context is key to understand what it's actually about.
When these tensions go away - and people get a chance to concentrate on what actually is going on you get 1918 or 1991. All ruski media that is being pumped via TickTock even into the phones of people on the front is geared to reinforce these mechanisms. Even the works of all the Tolsoevsky do this.
It has always been like this: the Ukrainian Sargent keeping the Tatars and ruskies from regions straight, loathing each other, but being only allowed their individual, approved and inferior version of racism.
Sadly: this is a sign of "healthy" functioning of the system, and not of tensions. The groups are all loyal to the "real white man" living next to Sadovoje Kolco and to the "third Rome" in general, while keeping each other at bay. When the "tensions" stop - moskau is fucked.
For them to pay reparations and do re-education, someone will need to occupy moskau like Berlin in 1945. Currently it looks more like the world is more interested in allowing their war criminals to participate in the Paralympics.
Not only: hands-on tactical experience in modern warfare is unique to them and us. And they know how to scale, if you give them resources. So yes: balkanization OR a second even bloodier war, after this one is paused because of exhaustion.
Yeltzin said in ~1990: with Ukraine, I am the president of a European country, without - the president of an Asian country. Why do you think, they've recognized Baltic independence 2 days after the UA declaration? Priorities and geopolitical mechanisms are very clear.
There have been countless examples since 2023. No one cares about poor hujlo in Asia, it is unheard of. moskau doesn't "worry", they go all-in here, because if we fall, they get everything back. Trump breaking the isolation helped to some extent, but not much. People are waiting for outcome of war.
If you observe closely: moskau immediately lost influence over this sphere of influence, once it became clear, that the blitzkrieg failed. And to a baffling extent, demonstrating that this is not just theoretical. Armenia and Azerbaijan travel to Washington; Kazakhstan blatantly pivoting to China..
Historically, this is not how it works for the region. An emperor must demonstrate to Central Asia: his dominance over Europe, control over trade routes, troops at the door and european ambassadors kissing his ass. Otherwise - he's just one of many, why him and not Turkey or Beijing?
The Russian capital have reportedly been targeted by Ukrainian UAVs for the last 24h, forcing Russian authorities to turn off the mobile internet. Technicals have once again been positioned around the government quarter of Moscow.
He is truly a master strategist
"Yea you won't, but if you get your way - you're get to be a moskau colony again"
"On behalf of my firm I promise not to use labor from concentration camps nor to cooperate with any firm that does." - this would be the end of outsourcing to China.
Imagine, if only the USA had, you know - other countries, that they could do stuff together. Trade and security stuff. Wow. We could call them "allies". Aw, shucks!
In all seriousness - a strike against an EU county might be possible, would be in their collective interest and might change a lot.
Oh and "China" - a separate lol 😂, their ships are allowed to pass, aren't they? I mean it's one thing to pretend that you don't see a China-rusky-Iran alliance. Many do. Another, to be stupid enough to actually believe your own BS.
A metaphor to expand on my "potential" point: think Germany+Austria at the end of WWI. Hungry, broken and beaten down society and army.. with tremendous experience and resentment. Give them a relatively short time to breathe and you'll get a real problem.
