MyRadar

An approaching elongated surface low pressure system will drag a cold front east as a warm front tries to lift north. To the south, an expansive "warm sector" of warm, humid air will build. An approaching jet stream dip will help introduce wind shear, or changing winds with height.

Likewise, in West Texas, we could see a couple hailers beneath the core of our approaching upper-level low. It will be plenty cold aloft!

Some hail is possible in southern Wisconsin as storms ride atop a shallow lip of cool surface iar north of the warm front. Hail up to ping pong or golf ball size can't be ruled out.

To the south in the yellow, much of Missouri, southeast Kansas, Oklahoma and central Texas could see scattered storms, including a few isolated initial supercells with tornado/hail risk. Storms may quickly transition into one or more windy lines/clusters.

Near the "triple point" of low pressure, we're expecting a few rotating supercells in southeast Iowa, extreme northeast Missouri or northern Illinois. Hail up to tennis ball size and a couple tornadoes are expected.

TUESDAY, March 10 has the potential to feature scattered to widespread severe weather across much of the Midwest, Corn Belt, Plains and even Texas. Some tornado activity is likely.

BREAKING: The Union City, Michigan tornado has officially been rated AT LEAST a 150 mph EF3 with winds of 150+ mph. Path length, width, start/end time etc. have not yet been ascertained, and it's possible the damage path may have been the result of multiple touchdowns.

Severe Storms Saturday A storm system rolling east is continuing to bring the risk of severe weather. In western New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia, there’s a tornado risk. In Texas, a couple of supercells with hail up to egg size. Matthew Cappucci has a severe weather briefing.

A storm system rolling east is continuing to bring the risk of severe weather. In western NY, PA, OH, & WV, there’s a tornado risk. In Texas, a couple of supercells with hail up to egg size.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather briefing.

myradar.com/videos/6385

Widespread Storms Friday Evening A developing QLCS, or squall line with embedded kinks of spin, will crash through the Mississippi Valley tonight with wind/a few tornadoes. Ahead of it, a few supercells with significant tornadoes are possible. Matthew Cappucci has a severe weather briefing.

A developing QLCS, or squall line with embedded kinks of spin, will crash through the Mississippi Valley tonight with wind/a few tornadoes.

Ahead of it, a few supercells with significant tornadoes are possible.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather briefing.

myradar.com/videos/6384

Today for International Women’s Day, we’re celebrating MyRadar COO Chandler Heitmann.

Her leadership and organizational skills help keep MyRadar running smoothly while pushing the company forward.

We’re lucky to have her leading the charge!

This product, called "significant tornado parameter," gives us a good idea of how strong a tornado could be IF a supercell becomes established.

Better chance of EF2+ in eastern OK/southeast KS.

Farther north in northern MO/IA, quicker, briefer spinups within squall line.

Parts of Iowa, Kansas, western Illinois and Missouri will likely see a "QLCS," or quasi-linear convective system – a feisty squall line with embedded kinks of spin.

Damaging gusts of 60-70 mph are possible in pockets, along with a few isolated quick-hitting spinup tornadoes.

The greatest risk of rotating supercells, and perhaps an isolated significant tornado, will be in northeast Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas, eastern Kansas or western Missouri.

Shear (changing winds with height) ramps up in tandem with the low-level jet stream around sunset.

The greatest PROBABILITY of tornadoes is in eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas if a band of supercells forms, but any tornadoes that occur across the Mississippi Valley and Midwest could be significant (EF2+).

Severe weather is expected today across parts of the Plains & Midwest.

The Weather Outlooks layer shows the SPC Day 1 severe weather outlook directly on the map.

To enable it:
• Open the Layers menu (stack of cards on the toolbar)
• Toggle Weather Outlooks

Available on iOS, Android, and desktop.

LARGE TORNADO just passed west of Fairview, Oklahoma and narrowly missed Cleo Springs. It was illuminated by lightning flashes and captured by Fairview Emergency Management.

This likely contained EF3+ winds at times!

Subsequently, we're comfortable calling this an intense tornado... ultimately its rating will be decided based on what it is found to have hit, since the Enhanced Fujita Scale only rates damage. Still, a POWERFUL tornado that narrowly missed Nash, Oklahoma to the north.

Since the tornado was close to the radar, we could sample the low-level winds very well. "Inbound" winds of 111.9 mph were found heading toward the radar, and wind of 98.4 mph away from the radar. That's about 200 mph of "gate to gate" shear.

Then the circulation took a swift left and passed only 2.5 miles EAST of the field!

WOW! On Thursday night, a strong tornado narrowly missed hitting the KVNX radar at Kegelman Air Force Auxiliary Field in in Alfalfa County, Oklahoma!

The tornado, likely of ~EF3 strength, passed 4.4 miles south of the radar, and 3.1 miles south of the southern end of the runway.

The supercell maturing north of Turkey, Texas appears to be beginning to split.

In this sort of environment, the left split may eventually chug toward I-40 or even WNW Oklahoma and produce large hail

Right split, if it survives, could pose a greater tornado risk as the low level jet ramps up.

Quarter-sized hail would be possible. It's a similar story along I-20 in Texas between Midland-Odessa and Abilene.

We'll have a special update Friday morning. IF you have plans Friday night, please stay weather-aware and have ways to be notified if warnings are issued.

Then we also have two zones of possible hailers. One is in Wisconsin north of the warm front, where one or two "elevated" storms could exist, riding atop a shallow lip of cool air near the surface.

If a supercell can form and not be interfered with by neighbors, it could produce an isolated significant (EF2+) tornado. Any supercells could also produce hen egg-sized hail. This is a source of uncertainty.

Then SUPERCELLS are possible in the red area, but that's a bigger wildcard. Will it be warm enough to sprout those more discrete, isolated thunderstorms?

Any embedded mesocyclones (areas of rotation) could produce a few quick-hitting tornadoes within the overall line.

That squall line will likely help mix damaging straight-line gusts to the surface. Scattered 60-70 mph wind gusts are likely in eastern/southeast Iowa, much of central/western Illinois, Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Perhaps central/eastern Oklahoma too.

BUSY day Friday, March 6 with the chance of a few significant tornadoes! We have three zones of storm potential.

A squall line with embedded areas of spin will likely form along a crashing cold front pushing southeast.

Sunset Supercells Thursday A few rotating supercells are possible along Highway 287 this evening with hail and tornado potential. Farther north, nighttime hailstorms are possible as far north as Wichita and Salina. Matthew Cappucci has a severe weather briefing.

A few rotating supercells are possible along Highway 287 this evening with hail and tornado potential. Farther north, nighttime hailstorms are possible as far north as Wichita and Salina.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather briefing.

myradar.com/videos/6382

Otherwise, storms lifting northeast will ride atop cooler surface air. That means northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas could see "elevated" hailers – storms that sit over a shallow cool layer and feed off warmth/moisture. Hail up to hen egg size is possible.