MyRadar

Resultantly, we expect cells to merge and become messy after 2-3 hours, reducing the tornado threat and increasing the chance of 60+ mph straight-line gusts. By 9 p.m., we'll be mostly dealing with squall lines or clusters.

However, that threat will be limited by southerly winds a mile up.

Those southerly winds will push storms along the dryline like train cars on a train track... rather than pushing them OFF the dryline to the east to remain as self-sustaining isolated supercells.

A few thunderstorms will sprout along a dryline, or the leading edge of desert air impinging on Gulf moisture. Initial storms may exhibit supercell characteristics, rotating enough to produce hail up to hen egg size and damaging straight-line wind gusts. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

THURSDAY, March 5 will feature the chance of a couple supercells with a low-end tornado risk in West Texas, western Oklahoma and SW Kansas.

The Level 2/5 Slight risk includes Elk City and Lawton, Ok., Pampa, Amarillo, Shamrock, Childress, Canadian, Lubbock and Guthrie, Tex. and Liberal, Kansas.

There are a few limiting factors, however, including the potential for storms to merge/become messy after a couple hours. We'll refine this forecast in the days ahead.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will likely carry into the night thanks to a strengthening low-level jet stream, or a conveyor belt of winds a mile above the ground that pumps in additional warm, humid air.

Changing winds with height will help a few to become rotating supercells, with an attendant tornado, wind and hail risk.

We'll have the jet stream sweeping over an expansive "warm sector" dragged north by low pressure near Sioux Falls. Thunderstorms will blossom as a cold front impinges on that warm, humid air mass.

A broader slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk spans from Chicago and La Crosse, Wisconsin, all the way to Dallas, Waco and Abilene in Texas; and also includes Springfield, Missouri; Wichita, Kansas;, Omaha and Lincoln, Nebraska; and Springfield, Illinois.

An enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risk has been drawn by the Storm Prediction Center; it stretches from Kansas City and St. Joseph to Tulsa, Oklahoma City and Ardmore.

FRIDAY, March 6 has an increasing chance of severe weather, and a few tornadoes, for parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

A few supercells with all hazards are possible, with a greater chance of lines/clusters that produce damaging straight-line gusts and hail, perhaps up to golf ball size.

DMV gang – we're growing quite concerned about the potential for FREEZING DRIZZLE on Tuesday morning.

It will look like ordinary rain, but could freeze on contact with the surface. And smaller droplets will freeze faster.

Please plan to drive extra-slowly. Lots of slick roads!

It may enhance low-level easterly flow at the surface, which would bolster near-surface spin, increasing the chance of a couple tornadoes. We'll have to iron out those details in the days ahead.

The main hazards will be damaging gusts and large hail, although a weak surface low that may develop west of Dallas makes us a bit concerned about a sneaky tornado risk. Why?

SATURDAY, March 7 could feature some severe thunderstorms from DFW up I-30 into the Arklatex and in southeast Oklahoma.

A slow-moving frontal boundary will be sagging southeast into a warm, humid airmass, kicking up scattered storms. A couple supercells may evolve.

If you have Friday evening/night plans, have a way to stay abreast of changing weather conditions. With the low-level jet stream ramping up around dark, we believe any severe weather potential could continue into the night.

With frigid air aloft spilling south in a jet stream dip, large hail will be probable with the strongest storms. Changing winds with height could also help a few storms to produce tornadoes.

Low pressure near Sioux Falls, S.D. will tug warm, humid air northwards, setting the stage for storms as a cold front approaches from the west. The clash between dry and humid air masses will cause scattered thunderstorms, including a few supercells, to crop up by 3 or 4 p.m.

The main hazards are large hail up to hen egg size and damaging winds, but there's a decent chance of some tornadoes too. We'll be working to learn more in the days ahead.

FRIDAY, March 6, 2026 could feature the season's first widespread severe weather threat along I-35 in classic "Tornado Alley."

This includes Dallas-Ft. Worth, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, Waco, Wichita, Tulsa, St. Joseph, Mo. and all the way north into southern Iowa.

Storms won't be pushed off the dryline and maintained as supercells; instead, they'll ride along the dryline and potentially merge with other cells, blobifying and become messier clusters/lines. That's why the risk of hail or wind gusts is greater.

However, that threat will be tempered (limited) by winds a mile up. They'll be out of the due south, parallel to the boundary. The result?

Low pressure strengthening in southeast Colorado will help sharpen a dryline, or the clash between dry desert air west and moisture-rich Gulf air to the east. That clash will brew storms. Thunderstorms will feel changing winds with height, so could rotate enough to produce a low-end tornado threat.

The main hazards are golf ball- to hen egg-sized hail and 60+ mph gusts. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

THURSDAY, March 5 could feature the season's first batch of widely-scattered supercells in western Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle and parts of the Plains and Caprock.

This includes San Angelo, Abilene, Snyder, Big Spring, Guthrie, Childress, Memphis, Pampa, Elk City, Lawton-Ft. Sill and Clinton.

⛈️Meteorological spring has arrived, and severe storms are in the offing. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted Wed, Thurs, Fri, & Saturday as featuring a risk of severe thunderstorms.

🌊Heavy rain/flooding is possible too.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has an update.

myradar.com/videos/6377

While an isolated tornado can't be ruled out, we're expecting mainly clusters and lines rather than supercells. That's why winds and some hail are the primary concerns.

There is some approaching jet stream energy aloft to help storms mix locally damaging gust to the surface. However, the tornado threat is rather low. Why? There's not a ton of changing wind with height.

The main hazards are damaging gusts to 60 mph and half dollar-sized hail with the strongest storms.

Low pressure in Missouri will pull a cold front east. Ahead of it, warm, humid Gulf air will translate to instability, or thunderstorm fuel. Thunderstorms will sprout along the front.

WEDNESDAY, March 4, 2026 will feature some severe weather potential in western Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma and northern Texas.

This includes Dallas-Ft. Worth, the Interstate 30 corridor, Texarkana, Paris, Idabel, Ft. Smith, Russelville, and Hugo.

SPC has drawn a Level 2 out of 5 Slight risk.