MyRadar

LARGE TORNADO just passed west of Fairview, Oklahoma and narrowly missed Cleo Springs. It was illuminated by lightning flashes and captured by Fairview Emergency Management.

This likely contained EF3+ winds at times!

Subsequently, we're comfortable calling this an intense tornado... ultimately its rating will be decided based on what it is found to have hit, since the Enhanced Fujita Scale only rates damage. Still, a POWERFUL tornado that narrowly missed Nash, Oklahoma to the north.

Since the tornado was close to the radar, we could sample the low-level winds very well. "Inbound" winds of 111.9 mph were found heading toward the radar, and wind of 98.4 mph away from the radar. That's about 200 mph of "gate to gate" shear.

Then the circulation took a swift left and passed only 2.5 miles EAST of the field!

WOW! On Thursday night, a strong tornado narrowly missed hitting the KVNX radar at Kegelman Air Force Auxiliary Field in in Alfalfa County, Oklahoma!

The tornado, likely of ~EF3 strength, passed 4.4 miles south of the radar, and 3.1 miles south of the southern end of the runway.

The supercell maturing north of Turkey, Texas appears to be beginning to split.

In this sort of environment, the left split may eventually chug toward I-40 or even WNW Oklahoma and produce large hail

Right split, if it survives, could pose a greater tornado risk as the low level jet ramps up.

Quarter-sized hail would be possible. It's a similar story along I-20 in Texas between Midland-Odessa and Abilene.

We'll have a special update Friday morning. IF you have plans Friday night, please stay weather-aware and have ways to be notified if warnings are issued.

Then we also have two zones of possible hailers. One is in Wisconsin north of the warm front, where one or two "elevated" storms could exist, riding atop a shallow lip of cool air near the surface.

If a supercell can form and not be interfered with by neighbors, it could produce an isolated significant (EF2+) tornado. Any supercells could also produce hen egg-sized hail. This is a source of uncertainty.

Then SUPERCELLS are possible in the red area, but that's a bigger wildcard. Will it be warm enough to sprout those more discrete, isolated thunderstorms?

Any embedded mesocyclones (areas of rotation) could produce a few quick-hitting tornadoes within the overall line.

That squall line will likely help mix damaging straight-line gusts to the surface. Scattered 60-70 mph wind gusts are likely in eastern/southeast Iowa, much of central/western Illinois, Missouri and northwest Arkansas. Perhaps central/eastern Oklahoma too.

BUSY day Friday, March 6 with the chance of a few significant tornadoes! We have three zones of storm potential.

A squall line with embedded areas of spin will likely form along a crashing cold front pushing southeast.

Sunset Supercells Thursday A few rotating supercells are possible along Highway 287 this evening with hail and tornado potential. Farther north, nighttime hailstorms are possible as far north as Wichita and Salina. Matthew Cappucci has a severe weather briefing.

A few rotating supercells are possible along Highway 287 this evening with hail and tornado potential. Farther north, nighttime hailstorms are possible as far north as Wichita and Salina.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather briefing.

myradar.com/videos/6382

Otherwise, storms lifting northeast will ride atop cooler surface air. That means northwest Oklahoma and south central Kansas could see "elevated" hailers – storms that sit over a shallow cool layer and feed off warmth/moisture. Hail up to hen egg size is possible.

A subtle wind shift along that boundary will provide extra low-level helicity, or twist. If a storm can anchor to that boundary, it will gobble up that twist and potentially stretch it vertically, leading to increase rotation and tornado potential.

Overnight thunderstorms over Oklahoma helped mix cool air to the surface, the leading edge of which is an "outflow boundary" (the edge of storm exhaust). That outflow boundary has sagged southwestward.

We continue to monitor an increasing risk of a couple tornadoes from Amarillo to Altus tonight (Thursday evening), particularly along the Highway 287 corridor in the Red River Valley.

This is the second-largest quake on record in the state, coming behind the 5.3 magnitude earthquake that occurred in Grand Isle on February 9, 2006.

We're working to learn more about what faulting occurred to trigger this quake.

There is a 41% chance of additional aftershocks of magnitude 3.0 or greater, and an 11 percent chance of a magnitude 4.0 aftershock(s).

WOW! Louisiana got a magnitude 4.9 earthquake this morning! That's very substantial for the region. Aftershocks possible.

Magnitude 4.5 is the point at which you get to fragile items breaking, things on shelves toppling, and wanting to duck below a table or step into a doorway.

As of late morning, this is where overnight downpours had left cool air across Oklahoma and Northwest Texas.

The southern lip of this cool air, the "outflow boundary," will be a source of low-level twist to increase tornado potential later today.

It may become established near Highway 287.

We can't rule out an isolated significant tornado in North Texas, the Red River Valley or Western Oklahoma, or along the Highway 287 corridor.

The newest MyRadar update adds advanced radar mosaics built from multiple radar stations.

New mosaics include precipitation rate, storm total rainfall, hydrometeor classification, echo tops, and more.

Update the app and try them out. Let us know what you think!

Active Severe Weather Pattern Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley. Damaging gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. Heavy rain to...

⛈️Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Friday across parts of the Plains, Midwest, and Mississippi Valley.

💨Damaging gusts, 🧊large hail, and a few 🌪️tornadoes are expected. ⛈️Heavy rain too.

@matthewcappucci.bsky.social has a severe weather preview.

myradar.com/videos/6381

Machine learning models are also beginning to highlight the chance of an isolated significant tornado in the Amarillo to Altus corridor Thursday evening, particularly along and south of Highway 287:

However, if we can squeak out a couple discrete, isolated supercells ahead of the main line, we'd get some hail (up to golf ball size) and perhaps a more significant tornado or two.

We'll be refining this forecast in the days ahead.

That would pose the risk of primarily damaging straight-line gusts of 60+ mph, and perhaps a couple embedded spin-up tornadoes (EF0, EF1).

Some models suggest the cold front will crash southeast more quickly than anticipated. If this is the case, we'll have cells merge more quickly into a squall line.

We'll have the jet stream swinging overhead, adding wind energy to the equation. The biggest wildcard is "storm mode" – do we get rotating supercells or just windy lines?