Felix Montag

Industrial Organization, NBER Summer Institute YouTube video by NBER

Next was a great talk by @fmontag.bsky.social on the effects of M&A and foreign competition on jobs in the US appliance industry at @nber.org www.youtube.com/live/fg08B7_... (5/7)

Home appliances swept up in expansion of Trump steel tariffs A range of imported household appliances including dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators and more will be subject to President Donald Trump's expanded steel tariffs starting later this month, according to a notice posted on Thursday.

Trump just announced new 50% tariffs on household appliances like dishwashers, washing machines, refrigerators.
Hope no one out there was in the middle of a remodel, or had a stove recently conk out
www.reuters.com/world/us/hom...

"Besides the Census itself, the @USCensusBureau performs 102 additional surveys costing $2.2 billion, many of them obsolete with the results not being used to drive any action nor even looked at. The Census Bureau and DOGE are reviewing them one-by-one. So far, 5 wasteful surveys, totaling 493 pages of questions and $16.5M in costs, have been terminated, with questions like: - “In your entire life, have you had at least 12 drinks of any kind of alcohol, not counting small tastes or sips?” - “Was this MOSTLY regular wine, wine coolers, or fortified wine?” - “How frequently do you use the internet in your home?”

Oh Jesus, they're looking to kill a bunch of census data collection. Talk about penny-wise pound-foolish behavior that's going to make it harder to actually understand America and do basic policymaking/ research work. They're setting the seed corn on fire for fun.

Why the social care visa had to go. TLDR; in long-run it’s an expensive and ineffective way to hire care workers.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

"We ask that we not be considered, explicitely or by implication, as members of the 'Chicago School' of economics. Indeed, economics at Chicago has included many things quite different from the particular views now associated with the 'Chicago School'"

Arrow, Klein, Koopmans and Simon to NYT, 1982

Recently accepted to #REStud, ``Colluding against Environmental Regulation," from Alé-Chilet, Chen, @jingli-econ.bsky.social and Reynaert:

www.restud.com/colluding-ag...

#EconSky #REStud
#pollution #regulation #collusion

Giulia Brancaccio and I just started looking for a pre-doc starting ideally in September and helping us on projects related to IO and trade: apply.interfolio.com/165860

We plan to review the first set of applications by then end of the month.

We‘d love to get their application!

Congratulations to Stefanie Stantcheva (@s-stantcheva.bsky.social) of @harvard.edu, winner of the 2025 John Bates Clark Medal! #econsky www.aeaweb.org/about-aea/ho...

Congratulations to Frank Verboven (@frankverboven.bsky.social) for being appointed as AER coeditor, handling papers in empirical IO and related fields. His term starts on July 1. I’m delighted to have him on our team. @aeajournals.bsky.social #EconSky

Giulia Brancaccio and I are looking for a pre-doc to work with us on topics related to Industrial Organization and Trade
@nyu.edu

Ideally for two years starting in September

apply.interfolio.com/165860

#EconSky #EconRA

A fun thing is that labor productivity is higher in 6 digit NAICS industries where you find "bullshit jobs" (e.g. in Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services) than in manufacturing

I was thinking about this Joe and Tracy anecdote from the supply chain crisis on gummy bears. Things are probably going to get really weird in a few weeks in unexpected ways:

This is driving me crazy too. Not long ago 10% universal tariffs were considered the worst-case scenario, something even Trump wasn’t crazy enough to impose. Now have those PLUS 125% tariffs on China. Together, these raise raise inflation by about as much as original “Liberation Day” tariffs did!

Stocks open lower as tariffs reality sets in Even with Trump's 90-day pause on country-by-country duties, the effective average import tax is rising to 24%.

Trump hasn't "paused tariffs": in addition to the insane rate on Chinese imports, we have a 10% tariff on everything.

www.nbcnews.com/business/mar...

The University in Exile I feel like we are witnessing a charade.

New post on the (possible) future of American higher education open.substack.com/pub/rajivset...

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.

Why China has escalation dominance in this trade war.

US gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced anytime soon. Reducing such dependence may be reason for action, but fighting the current trade war before doing so is a recipe for disaster.

by @adamposen.bsky.social

Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of U.S. Political Differences - Social Economics Lab We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking -- the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of a representative sample ...

Regarding trade -- our research shows that only 25% of Americans *disagree with the idea that international trade is zero-sum* — that if one country gains, another must lose. Most people either believe it is zero-sum or aren’t sure. socialeconomicslab.org/research/wor...

Awkward. www.economist.com/europe/2025/...

A 1960s photo of a woman's wardrobe. A handful of dresses hang on a rail.

A stylized graphic showing a pile of clothes. There are words like "massive haul," "haul," and "$1k later," referencing TikTok haul videos, where people show off their shopping sprees.

It's easy to say "well then just stop cheap imports." But I don't think Americans are returning back to those prices. In early 1960s, US households spent 12% of their income on apparel (or $4,157 in today's dollars). In 2016, it was 4% (or $1,803). And that's with larger wardrobes!

“5/10: The EU's Deforestation-free Supply Chain Regulation (EUDR) aims to prohibit imports of seven products—including cattle, cocoa, rubber, and wood—unless exporters meet various burdensome compliance requirements, including due diligence and geolocation data. It is estimated the EUDR will potentially impact $8.6 billion worth of annual U.S. agricultural and industrial exports.” 7/10: Illegal logging and illegal mining in South America, particularly in Brazil, Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador, fuel environmental degradation and create unfair competition that harms U.S. businesses committed to responsible sourcing and compliance with environmental laws. These illicit activities, which usually involve transnational criminal organizations, distort global commodity markets by driving down prices and allowing bad actors to undercut legitimate American exporters.

I’m losing my mind here. USTR made a list of “Unfair trade practices” they’re retaliating against, complaint number 5 is that the EU cares too much about stopping illegal deforestation, complaint number 7 is that the South Americans are doing too much illegal deforestation

Professor of Health Economics

Come join me in Zurich! We’re hiring a Professor of Health Economics (deadline April 30).

DM me if you have any questions about our department, ETH 🏫, or Switzerland🇨🇭

ethz.ch/en/the-eth-z...

Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1930 @qjeharvard.bsky.social
www.jstor.org/stable/1882526

Meanwhile, back in Metropolis...

Trump administration invokes Rapid Response Mechanism (RRM) of USMCA for first time.

US is worried about denial of worker rights - freedom of association / collective bargaining - in a Mexican auto parts plant.

Source: ustr.gov/about/policy...

BREAKING: Senators Chuck Grassley (R) and Maria Cantwell (D) introduce legislation to require all new tariffs to receive Congressional approval.

Stellantis says it will temporarily lay off 900 US workers following tariff announcement Stellantis NV, maker of Ram trucks and Jeeps, said on Thursday it was temporarily laying off 900 workers at five U.S. facilities after President Donald Trump's tariffs were announced, and temporarily pausing production at an assembly plant in Mexico and in Canada.

Stellantis laying off 900 US workers at its US auto plants, thanks to tariffs www.reuters.com/business/aut...

USTR: "The elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs, φ, is 0.25. The recent experience with U.S. tariffs on China has demonstrated that tariff passthrough to retail prices was low (Cavallo et al, 2021)."

Cavallo et al: φ is 0.945.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

So are we gonna get import subsidies for services?

That’s always been my opinion on the tariffs, and why I didn’t necessarily think they would tank the economy as some predicted. That said, the scale and monumental idiocy of what was announced yesterday was on a different level...

Analyzing theoretical formula used to determine tariffs…

What’s wrong with it?

Used in isolation on a single small trading partner the formula makes some sense. But if applied widely to many non trivial ones it does not.

ustr.gov/issue-areas/...