@eejbro.bsky.social
German Diplomat (1984-2024); Moscow, Washington, NATO. Former German Ambassador to Iraq and President of Federal Academy for Security Policy in Berlin. My new book: https://buchshop.bod.de/szenenwechsel-ekkehard-brose-9783819231506
“When a great power justifies entry into a conflict as unavoidable because an ally is acting, control over escalation and, indeed, foreign policy writ large has shifted.”
Just a little primer to prepare for the likely Iran contingency that Trump chose to ignore
Let's be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.
Perhaps a good example of the astute political advice that Trump is privileged to receive.
Merz’ reaction to Trumps latest move on Russia is unequivocal:
„Jetzt Sanktionen zu lockern, aus welchen Gründen auch immer, das halten wir für falsch“
(Whatever the reasons, relaxing sanctions now we consider a mistake.)
This is a deeply depressing read but I fear correct.
Thread from @proftalmadge.bsky.social who published THE analysis of this contingency in *2008* titled "Closing Time: Assessing the Iranian Threat to the Strait of Hormuz," in @intsecurity.bsky.social. But this admin doesn't read, so they had no idea.
www.caitlintalmadge.com/uploads/8/5/...
Another thought on this foreseeable disaster...deterrence is notoriously hard to measure because the entire point is that when states are deterred, nothing happens. When you observe stuff like this in the real world, it's very very not good.
In @nytopinion.nytimes.com
“The showdown between the Pentagon and Anthropic is a window into how unprepared we are for the questions we are already facing,” our columnist Ezra Klein writes.
Trump's decision to bomb Iran is now the greatest windfall to the Russian war effort on record. If it continues, it might save the Russian war economy.
You know who does believe in Rules of Engagement? Ukraine Does.
You know who does not? Putin's Russia.
Guess who the USA is now modelling itself on?
Irgendwie social media aus dem letzten Jahrhundert. Können wir das nicht besser?
The similarities are striking and quite frankly worrying: Special operations going on in Ukraine and Iran. Armed force is being used like a private instrument at the disposal of an autocratic leader.
Nail on head!
NEW: The US-Israeli combined force appears to be increasingly targeting the Iranian internal security apparatus, which is consistent with the US-Israeli stated objective of toppling the Iranian regime.
Read the full report: isw.pub/IranUpdate03...
Other Key Takeaways:
All those of you wondering what President Macron's nuclear speech today is about - here's an excellent primer on the French deterrence system and doctrine.
Let's raise the nuclear IQ (especially in Germany)!
Source: www.defense.gouv.fr/sites/defaul...
Es fährt praktisch kein Tanker mehr durch die Straße von Hormuz. Wegen der Risiken und Sicherheitswarnungen und weil Lloyds die Versicherungsprämien drastisch erhöht hat.
NEW: "It is true that air campaigns can destroy things. What they cannot do, by themselves, is build political outcomes."
Really superb piece from our @markhertling.bsky.social.
www.thebulwark.com/p/bombing-ir...
bei aller kritik an trump, können wir eben auch nicht übersehen, dass er russlands bewegungsfreiheit durchaus eingeschränkt hat.. und die chinas ebenfalls.
das ist für russland viel mehr ein problem als für china. und es wirft russland in eine stärkere chinesische abhängigkeiten.
Putin has failed in Ukraine, thanks to the incredible bravery and resilience of Ukrainians. He is currently winning in the US. Whether he succeeds in the rest of Europe is up to us.
A typical Russian ruse. We should not give them the satisfaction to fall for it
Es war erwartbar, dass Putin—wenn es an der Front immer schlechter läuft—seine Laufburschen mobilisiert, um Europa lahm zu legen. Warum überrascht dies ganz offenbar europäische Politiker; und warum gibt es keinen Plan B, um Ungarns verräterische Regierung die Daumenschrauben anzulegen—peinlich.
Germany & EU have every reason to stand by Japan against Chinese coercion.
They also have every incentive to work together with Japan to urgently reduce supply chain dependencies on China -- for Beijing has already made it clear it seeks to cut off European military end users.
Deutschland auf dem fünften Platz im Medaillenspiegel der diesjährigen Winterolympiade. Freute mich darüber, vor allem auch für die erfolgreichen Sportlerinnen und Sportler. Bis ich in die Nachrichten schaute. Enttäuschung…; Desaster für….; Erwartungen enttäuscht…
Ich vergaß: 🇩🇪
From my European perspective the all important role played by financial resources in the US presidential election precludes calling it “a model of democracy”.
Von wegen Sanktionen? "Die Drohne, die Russland im vergangenen Jahr am häufigsten im Krieg gegen die Ukraine eingesetzt hat, enthält mehr als 100 kürzlich hergestellte europäische Bauteile."
russland wird langsam nervös ob des höheren drucks auf die schattenflotte. gcaptain.com/kremlin-aide...
NATO SecGen Rutte should prepare a roadmap for the Europeanization of NATO. It would probably be less controversial if he does it than waiting for an initiative by the Europeans. Close coordination with the EU would be essential. If US are supportive - good. If not - Europe should raise the pressure
