Bill Adams

Look at the distribution of z-values from medical research!

Yes, and core goods were the slice of prices where consumers used to benefit most directly from competition and innovation--the category was flat from 2000 to 2019. So any increase is higher than normal.

Shock in Au

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"... to another. I thought I had a handle on the future. But the future, it turns out, is not a tote bag."

Lots of Candles, Plenty of Cake

Reading Anna Quindlen and man, she is so good. I wish I could write like this:

"Life is haphazard. We plan, and then we deal when the plans go awry. Control is an illusion; best intentions are the best we can do. I remember imagining that I could chart a course that would take me from one place...

A screen capture of the Zillow Home Value Index for August showing average prices up 0.2% Y/Y

Zillow estimates rents are flat month over month and up 2.4% year over year, per their US rental market trends August release

Zillow has released their August house value index which shows prices flat on the month, and nearly unchanged Y/Y. Most house price indices (FHFA, Cotality etc) show m/m declines from early 2025 through July. Nice to see wage growth outpaced HPIs in August.

@conorsen.bsky.social pointing out why employment fell in Sept in yesterday's ADP report--weak seasonal hiring as retailers ramp up for the holidays. This is shaping up to be a headwind to payrolls through year-end.

This piece was so good

In a scene repeated across all of America this fall, my 7.5 yr old’s AYSO soccer team, the Demon Hunters, played another team named the Demon Hunters

Hasn't fiscal tightening already happened? The deficit is down 17% Y/Y Feb-Aug. The OBBBA is set up to offset that in 2026 and put the deficit back at its 2024 level as % of GDP, timed with the midterms. Unsure about lags between fiscal policy & hiring/layoffs, but that looks like their plan to me.

A chart of the unemployment rate of Black or African American workers from the 1970s to the present. It rises sharply at the start of recessions. There's a big blip higher at the very end of the chart. Data source is the u.s. bureau of labor statistics via Fred (R)

Detail of the unemployment rate for Black or African American workers over the last five years. It's jumped one and a half percentage points from May to August.

I don't think we're in a recession. I don't think we're headed into one with the Fed cutting and fiscal policy loosening. But--

America's 'haves' are doing much better than previously thought

wapo.st/46YgMrS

The good news: Household balance sheets in aggregate are in better shape than thought, which will help the consumer weather tariffs.

The bad news: The revision is concentrated among the haves. Low & moderate income & middle class Americans will struggle with inflation & benefit cuts from the OBBBA.

Really notable upward revisions to capital income today, raising personal income from businesses, rentals, interest and dividends. With these revisions, the saving rate has trended in stronger territory in the last few years than previously understood. 1/2

Bill Nelson ups the level of how nerdy and niche Fed analysis can be, and I love it

Fomc guess: 25bps cut, two dissents for a 50bps cut, one dissent for a 100bps cut.

Huge range of forecasts for the preliminary benchmark revision from private forecasters ahead of its release this morning, from -250k and -900k. Median is -682k, I'm forecasting -775k. BLS will publish the revision at 9am Dallas time.

Ahh the kids sports schedules coming in again, which typically leave about 13 minutes every week for me to pursue my dreams.

I too want to attack Fed independence (to get rid of these cursed dots on FRED charts):

Matthews?

Two things can be true at once. First, the Fed's independence is under attack. Second, the next rate decision will be a tough call.

Inflation will exceed the Fed's target for a fifth straight year this year-- not great! -- but Black workers' jobs data are sounding klaxons that shouldn't be ignored

My partner is attending a preschool field trip today and the updates I've received so far are

this field trip is a lot!!! man

<our child> is the problem child and <her favorite friend> a little bit co-conspirator

...I didn't *know* that my child was the troublemaker, but nor am I surprised

Cut my brain into pieces
Make me a crab for sport

Weekly Economic Index The WEI is currently 2.56 percent, scaled to four-quarter GDP growth, for the week ended July 26 and 2.23 percent for July 19.

China's Premier once said he didn't trust his own government's GDP stats, and instead watched rail freight, bank loans, and electricity output to measure the economy. The US equivalent is the Dallas Fed's weekly economic index. Time to start following it closer!

www.dallasfed.org/research/wei

IMO most unemployment rate forecasts look too high since immigrants accounted for 4/5 of labor force growth in the five years pre-Trump II; the labor market could tighten even with just like 50k payrolls added per month and so I think unemployment is unlikely to justify a fed cut. But housing might.

To my mind the strongest justification for a fed cut in 2025 comes from housing inflation. The Redfin and Zillow HPIs for June are both out, Redfin shows three consecutive MoM declines and Zillow 4. Rents have been about flat nationally since mid-2023 according to Redfin, ApartmentList, and RealPage

quick reminder: tomorrow is the factory reset and we start back in 2009. don't mess it up this time, folks

My contribution to the jobs report poastfest: Labor supply growth is weaking because of immigration restrictions and the US is probably entering a period when the unemployment rate will hold steady or fall despite anemic job creation, like in the UK after Brexit.