On France24 Wednesday 11/3: An American war in desperate search of a strategy". On why the war is not going Trump's way and just how little we know about the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
www.france24.com/en/us-war-on...
‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...
And so we are back to Tom Toro’s cartoon. Those of us who know this history are doomed to watch the nincompoops who either don't know it or simply don't care - repeat it. With great gusto and no regard for human life.
End.
And it will set Iran’s development, by any metric you choose, back decades. And none of this exonerates Tehran’s own responsibility for the situation it’s in.
But anyone with an inkling of knowledge about this dynamic warned that such a war would spell disaster. 14/n
And no matter how far this goes before even the D.C. blob realises what it has gotten itself into and the MAGA movement see their demi-God does exactly what he wasn’t supposed to do - it’s the people of Iran that will pay the heaviest price. 13/n
For Israel this is good enough. Problem is that this lawn is 1.6 MILLION square kilometres big and has a population of over 90 MILLION. So the only country rich and dumb enough to buy this approach is the United States.
12/n
They know such a war cannot be won on a strategic level so destroying Irans industrial foundation and being prepared to do so again in a couple of years, and then again and so on, is the “strategy”. It’s a periodic forever war in the hope the Iranian state collapses. 11/n
There this tactic has become a strategy ie rather than acknowledge unsustainability of continued occupation you kill Palestinians esp. the leaders who refuse to accept subjugation.
This is the fall back tactic for those who want a war against Iran.
10/n
Under those conditions (critical mass no appetite for massive ground war) the Israeli preferred tactic for avoiding difficult political questions is a repetitive killing of enemy leadership. In the Occupied Palestinian Territories this is called “mowing the lawn”. 9/n
What about nuclear program and missiles?
The main problem is that a nuclear program can always be rebuilt if the industrial basis of it exists and if the technical know how has reached critical mass ie enough engineers and scientist that you can’t kill them all. 8/n
So regime change is complicated and may of the required conditions are missing. Also: Israel doesn’t care. It wants the Iranian state to implode not to replace one political elite with another that might become a strategic rival down the line.
7/n
But the US doesn’t have that. Its diplomacy is literally down by amateurs and Trump’s trustworthiness is non existent. So who is going to take that leap of faith?
And IRI is a highly repressive system so it imprisons dissidents and opposition at any cost (like in Jan 2026). 6/n
Regime change: requires boots on the ground or at minimum an indigenous entity that can take control and resume state functions. Air war can destroy but not replace. If you have intel and diplomacy you can potentially find someone from inside the existing power structure. 5/n
But that doesn’t solve the problem of what the actual goal of such war is. And whether any of those goals are attainable.
Regime change / nuclear program / missile capacity
4/n
The US has that capacity, but has generally been reluctant because the conflict can easily escalate beyond any semblance of control.
So capacity - but no real will.
The combo of Bibi & Trump “solved” this mismatch. 3/n
The logic of a US-Israeli war on Iran has been known for 20 years.
Israel wants to bomb it but doesn’t have the capacity to vanquish a country the size (in all senses) of Iran on its own.
Will - but no independent capacity.
2/n
I’m constantly reminded of Tom Toro's wonderful depiction of what it means to know your history when I try to make sense of how surprised and naive people are as the US-Israeli war on Iran unfolds.
1/n
fineartamerica.com/featured/tho...
En timme prat om kriget och om Irans moderna historia, nu också med video. youtu.be/tCLvtcMoe6k?...
Med @rparsi.bsky.social och mig i studion, och programledaren Nike Nylander. Innan dess talade Katia Elliot med energimarknadsexperten Samuel Ciszuk om hur oljepriserna, och därmed världsmarknaden, påverkas. Länk till hela Aktuellt den 9 mars här.
www.svtplay.se/video/KxggQw...
I Aktuellt ikväll 9/3 om Irans nye Högste ledare och krigets utveckling. Vad vill Trump egentligen - och hur mycket skiljer det sig från vad Netanyahu vill med det här kriget? Med @bitteham.bsky.social
www.svtplay.se/video/KxggQw...
Medverkar i Konflikt idag om kriget mot Iran. Kan det här systemet överleva och vad kommer finnas kvar av det iranska samhället om det här blir ett utdraget krig?
sverigesradio.se/play/avsnitt...
Intervjuad i Klassekampen idag. Läs gärna: klassekampen.no/artikkel/202...
Exakt så. Det är ren lögn. Det går givetvis ha synpunkter på antalet vi tog emot i förhållande till vår storlek osv.
Men att det var ”kaos” är givetvis bara ministerns våta fantasier.
Sverigedemokraternas kompetensdränering av Sverige fortsätter, med vad som framstår som orimliga konsekvenser för enskilda.
FIFA har utsett Trump till den tolfte imamen
Marco Rubio kastar sten i glashus…
Jag skriver i DN om Iran, om kriget som tystar folkliga röster för förändring, och om vad vi ska acceptera för värld om detta är normen. Läs gärna! www.dn.se/kultur/ali-e...
I det töntigaste tal som någonsin hållits av en levande människa bekräftade USA:s krigsminister det som hela världen redan anat – han har ingen aning om vad han håller på med i Iran.
Bra allians vi gått med i.
Mark Rutte:
Brittiska sossarna går med i nytt folkrättsvidrigt krig giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Keir Starmer will let US use UK bases for attacks on Iranian missile sites
