FPL Diplomat

BB30
Haaland to JP
Minteh to Salah
Kluivert to Eze
Salah C
OR 168k
Good luck all!!!

I've been avoiding this long enough, WC29 went horrendously, but we keep going... spoiler alert, I'm gonna do BB30.

Activated my WC, going all in.
Haaland C.
OR around 108k.
Good luck all!!!

So this is what negative variance looks like... Considering what happened it could have been a lot worse.

I guess I haven't learned my lesson yet.
Rolling to 3fts.
Palmer Cap.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!

Another meh GW, I hesitate to rant too much, because I did get a green arrow, but I'm not happy. The plan is to roll into 29 and then acquire the services of the big blonde robot and atleast one of his teammates.

Lucky enough to roll to 2 FTs.
Palmer C
OR around 86k
Analytics managers assemble!!!
Good luck all!!!

Not the GW I wanted, but that's life... Hopefully I'm rolling for the next 2 GWs.

Let's keep the good time rolling... Brought in Dango for Eze.
Salah C
Around 43k OR
Good luck all!!!

These are the gains we want, 81k to 42k. Now I have to decide what's the plan for GW 26, AM switch, or Eze to Dango, I have till friday to decide.

I decided to attack the DGW, used all 3 of my FTs, did Moyes to Emery, Bruno to Nwaneri and Ndiaye to Watkins.
Salah C.
OR around 80k.
Good luck all!!!

Considering everything I'm happy with this GWs result. One ft is certain, Moyes to Emery, I still need to work out if it's worth it to use the other 2 fts.

Graham Potter And the Magical Whimsy of Pragmatism

Can Graham Potter succeed as West Ham’s manager?

— Statistical analysis of his progress at Brighton
— Media work and managing players
— Overly pragmatic: a concern?
— A suboptimal environment for goalscoring

Free to read at: instinctive.substack.com/p/graham-pot... 👈

💹 So far this season, PL home advantage is at a 20-year low (excl. 20/21)

Goals (xG) per game:
🔹Home – 1.54 (1.50)
🔹Away – 1.49 (1.40)

Markets still pricing home teams +0.30 goals per game, in line with historical trends - suggests they're sceptical this dip will continue! 👇

Do Tired Players Shoot Worse? Or are elite athletes too good to care?

I wrote a little bit about quantifying the impact of fatigue on ball-striking/finishing for players. Do players get tired in-game? Or between games without rest?

talatabont.substack.com/p/do-tired-p...

YouTube video by Brian Lagerstrom The Easiest Actually Good Sourdough Bread (No Mixer)

Yeah, it's a bit overproved, but it's great for a first try. Here is a good beginner sourdough recipe that I use, it produces good results every time.
youtu.be/dtWFkODWxBg?...

Box plot showing GW25 point projections for all Premier League Assistant Managers. Liverpool and Villa lead (17.4, 15.8 mean). Other teams cluster 2-13 points. Displays mean (black line), interquartile range (solid pink), and 5-95th percentiles (hatched areas)

GW25 Assistant Manager Points Potential 📊

No surprises that Liverpool lead in expected value.
However, an interesting choice is presented to managers yet again: safer floor or higher ceiling?

Based on 250k sims from @elevenify.com data

Injuries in Football: A Case Study The Anatomy of a Defensive Line

Injuries in Football: A Case Study

— Muscular vs. Contact Injuries
— Over/Undertraining
— Preventing Injuries
— Adapting to Injuries

Free to read: instinctive.substack.com/p/injuries-i... 👈

A full probability matrix for every outcome for Slot and Moyes' points after the Merseyside Derby 🔵🔴

Table showing how different Everton vs Liverpool match outcomes affect the points difference between Moyes and Slot in DGW24. Ranges from Liverpool wins (-13 to -5 points difference, probabilities 0.004 to 0.158), through a draw (7 points, 0.160), to Everton wins (19 to 26 points difference, probabilities 0.075 to 0.000). Each scenario includes specific score possibilities and their associated probabilities.

⚔️ Merseyside Derby Impact on the AM24 Points Gap

A Liverpool win (~68%) puts Slot owners at least 5 points clear, however there's also plenty of points available for an Everton upset.

Data: @elevenify.com

solioanalytics.com

Welcome to Solio Analytics.

#FPL Some updates for AM integration to FPLOptimized tools:
- Started with minor fixes; and Live GW and Highlights pages are working.
- Projected points for GW24 will be manually updated soon to include AM. Right now all AMs have 0 prP, but will be fixed.
- AM projections are automated for future.

Update after each team's first game:

Slot: 10 points, expectation: 17.90
Moyes: 12 points, expectation: 17.24

📈 Gap narrows but Slot maintains the edge heading into EVE vs LIV.

Team ratings: @elevenify.com

3/5 FTs used (Burgess to VVD, Isak to Ndiaye and Flekken to Pickford).
Ass man activated on Moyes.
Salah C.
OR 84k.
Moral of the story is dont do early transfers.
Good luck all!!!

💹 PL DGW24 matchups

First look at projected goals, clean sheet % and WDL odds for the weekend's round of Premier League games, via betting markets - and some projected #FPL assistant manager points

Another slight red arrow, I have 5 FTs, this is where the fun begins!

💹 PL GW23 - final market updates

Final pre-deadline match and player projections (including #FPL goal points), via spread betting markets 👇

Rolling to 5 FTs, I cant wait to see who I bring in next week.
OR 77K
Salah C
Good luck all!!!

Lewis Dunk appears to have taken part in training.

Table showing PL fixtures and potential rearrangements for gameweeks 23 to 38

Table showing probability of fixture rearrangements

Table showing probability of blank and double gameweeks

FPL Double and Blank Gameweeks

Viz dump + logic explained 🧵