Justin Sandefur

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...

Every time I talk with @mclem.org about the economics of immigration, I come away a whole lot smarter.

You can enjoy the same experience: He's written a fantastic primer on what the data reveals about the effect of slashing H-1B visas.

It's a banger. Read it.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

America's offer to Africa:

Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-.

Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID

The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Meanwhile, X is blocked but b-sky works. Make of that what you will.

Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason.

A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.

“For all intents and purposes, Nkrumah paralleled Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. in his reach and influence. That little is known about him outside of Africa and African diasporic communities is a reflection of the continued marginalization of the continent in the Western imagination.”

Today Is Our Dependence Day There's not going to be an independent Fed you stupid slut

Emergency 1:30 am blog post: Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor. It’s really bad, not just for the United States, but for everyone else. To start Tuesday off on a positive, cheerful note!

open.substack.com/pub/someunpl...

Fed’s Cook Says She Won’t Be Bullied Into Stepping Down Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank in defiance of calls for her resignation by President Donald Trump over allegations of mortgage fraud.

“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said. www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Amen.

My experience is if you send Mauricio a half-baked idea, he might just code it up for you and send back a TeX file. Dunno if it’ll work with him as an editor, but worth trying at least…

School Feeding and Cognitive Performance in Rwanda Abstract. Using unique administrative data on test scores from a high stake national exam for primary school students in Rwanda, we evaluate the impact of

School feeding program in Rwanda yields 11x return on investment academic.oup.com/jae/article-...

Thank you. (This is the kind of buttering up I was promised when moving to philanthropy. :)

Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard.

Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.

NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.

World map of the lives saved by US foreign aid per year.

@charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social ‬focus on the impact that US foreign aid budget cuts & freezes will have on the field of public #health and find that approx 1/2 million lives will be lost each year mainly from a lack of HIV drugs & vaccinations.
cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky

Blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me: A Million Lives at Risk?

White House proposing a two-thirds cut to global health and humanitarian funding. Using estimates of costs per life saved for US global health and humanitarian assistance suggests the cuts could lead to one million deaths.

Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with le...

They're terminating OPT.

Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US.

6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Thanks, Michael — far too kind

Thank you, in particular, to my brilliant CGD colleagues, who created such a supportive and intellectually vibrant place to work. CGD's mission of influencing rich-world policy to the benefit of the global poor remains unqiue and vital.

Proud to have been a small part of it.

Some personal/professional news...

After 14 (!) years, this was my last week at @cgdev.org

Posted a longer thread on the other site, and will share more later on what's next. For now, just want to say thank you.

Redefining America’s Interests? Trump’s FY2026 Budget Proposes Sweeping Cuts to US Foreign Aid The Trump administration unveiled an overview of its FY2026 budget request on Friday. While short on details, the document offers a grim forecast for US development and humanitarian spending. In seeki...

The Trump admin’s FY2026 budget proposes deep cuts to US dev. & humanitarian aid, reflecting a shift in global engagement.

@ecollinson.bsky.social & @justinrhurley.bsky.social highlight a key choice for Congress: endorse this retreat or pursue a more balanced approach ⬇️
bit.ly/3Z8LIRU

This is accurate. As @charlesjkenny.bsky.social of @cgdev.org has noted, the data we have support the conclusion that the reckless and illegal obliteration of USAID will cause deaths worldwide, particularly of children.

—> www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

I think a hugely effective form of altruism at the moment is ensuring all potential legal challenges to aid cuts are fully funded and staffed with great lawyers. www.afge.org/local/l1444/...

a very interesting write-up of the world's largest poverty alleviation programme, implemented in China starting 2014. Blog version: www.voxchina.org/show-3-391.h...

In contrast to other "multifaceted" anti-poverty interventions (i.e. voxdev.org/topic/social... ) it included industrial promotion

TIL Argentina gets **one-third** of all IMF loans

The illegal obliteration of USAID, an independent agency established and funded by Congress, will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths per year.

That is a conservative reading of expert analysis by @charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —> www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...

Was speaking with a USAID person yesterday explaining how at any other time countless phone lines wld be buzzing, working groups stood up, go-teams and aid being dispatched to after the Myanmar quake. Now ... nothing.

Make America Great Again by slashing basic health services in the Congo.

Hopefully Congress doesn't take these numbers as given.

The Economist joins the call here to accelerate malaria vaccine rollout — citing our work on prioritizing R21 for both speed and cost.

www.economist.com/middle-east-...

New estimates of the effects of the US Administration's obliteration of our Congressionally-mandated development assistance agency, from the brilliant @charlesjkenny.bsky.social and @justsand.bsky.social of @cgdev.org —>

New Estimates of the USAID Cuts with @justsand.bsky.social

~36% of contracts by value have been terminated, including potentially all awards in sectors including private sector competitiveness, higher education, and political competition & consensus building.

Don’t Give Up On Aid Just Yet Headlines on aid and global development are grim right now. The decimation of USAID has been swiftly followed by major cuts announced in the UK, and smaller cuts planned from a raft of European donors...

Don't give up on foreign aid just yet - despite huge cuts from many donors there's still a lot of money on the table and still broad public support. We just need to make a better case for aid effectiveness

www.cgdev.org/blog/dont-gi...