Justin Sandefur

"An approximate cost-benefit calculation suggests firm owners have earned a cumulative return of 900 percent or more on the cost of this
training over seven years... without the need for asset or cash transfers"
openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/...

It feels weird to me for the World Bank to focus on psychological training to make Togolese people better entrepreneurs but... it does seem to work.

New in the AER:

I'm constantly confused by people who see a higher poverty line as a progressive goal, as opposed to shifting focus away from the 40% of the world living on <1/10th of that amount.

$100k (PPP) for a family of 4
= 99.99th percentile in India
= 99th percentile in China
= 93rd percentile in the world

ouch, good catch

Ungated link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/w5sm...

Why aren't there more big, labor-intensive firms in poor countries?

Answer here: bigger firms use more white-color workers who are in shorter supply in poorer countries.

Some news: Open Philanthropy is now Coefficient Giving! Our mission is unchanged but the new name reflects our growing work with other donors to multiply the impact of their giving.

🧵 on our work to make philanthropy a more efficient "market" and plans going forward:

Accessible to all! ...my paper in Journal of Econ Perspectives on World Bank's 1993 East Asian "Miracle" report ("Too Much A Product of Its TIme?") (www.aeaweb.org/full_issue.p...). @cgdev.org @mclem.org @arvind2011.bsky.social @justsand.bsky.social

this is a whopper - 600+ pages - but the intro by Besley and Velasco is short easy reading. Is this really the mainstream consensus? A lot of big names are in here, and other big names give positive blubs. If so, it differs from the "mainstream" econ of the popular imagination.

Book launch day -- congrats to @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur!

The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory.

Must read.

New @devex.com article, ft. @justsand.bsky.social, on our our $40m fund to accelerate economic growth in low- and middle-income countries, including a great explanation of hits-based vs. GiveWell-style philanthropic giving

www.devex.com/news/as-aid...

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms President Donald Trump on Friday ordered an unprecedented new restriction on lawful immigration to the US by high-skill workers. Starting Sunday, new applications for H-1B visas required payment of an...

Every time I talk with @mclem.org about the economics of immigration, I come away a whole lot smarter.

You can enjoy the same experience: He's written a fantastic primer on what the data reveals about the effect of slashing H-1B visas.

It's a banger. Read it.
www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

America's offer to Africa:

Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.

Botswana credit rating downgraded from BBB+ to BBB, still one notch above the lowest investment grade rating of BBB-.

Botswana started with a A rating in 2001 from S&P, cut to A- after the global financial crisis and to BBB+ during COVID

The external shock hitting Botswana now is very specific

Meanwhile, X is blocked but b-sky works. Make of that what you will.

Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason.

A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.

“For all intents and purposes, Nkrumah paralleled Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King Jr. in his reach and influence. That little is known about him outside of Africa and African diasporic communities is a reflection of the continued marginalization of the continent in the Western imagination.”

Today Is Our Dependence Day There's not going to be an independent Fed you stupid slut

Emergency 1:30 am blog post: Trump tried to fire a Federal Reserve governor. It’s really bad, not just for the United States, but for everyone else. To start Tuesday off on a positive, cheerful note!

open.substack.com/pub/someunpl...

Fed’s Cook Says She Won’t Be Bullied Into Stepping Down Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank in defiance of calls for her resignation by President Donald Trump over allegations of mortgage fraud.

“I have no intention of being bullied to step down from my position because of some questions raised in a tweet,” Cook said. www.bloomberg.com/news/article... Amen.

My experience is if you send Mauricio a half-baked idea, he might just code it up for you and send back a TeX file. Dunno if it’ll work with him as an editor, but worth trying at least…

School Feeding and Cognitive Performance in Rwanda Abstract. Using unique administrative data on test scores from a high stake national exam for primary school students in Rwanda, we evaluate the impact of

School feeding program in Rwanda yields 11x return on investment academic.oup.com/jae/article-...

Thank you. (This is the kind of buttering up I was promised when moving to philanthropy. :)

Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard.

Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.

NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.

World map of the lives saved by US foreign aid per year.

@charlesjkenny.bsky.social & @justsand.bsky.social ‬focus on the impact that US foreign aid budget cuts & freezes will have on the field of public #health and find that approx 1/2 million lives will be lost each year mainly from a lack of HIV drugs & vaccinations.
cepr.org/publications...
#EconSky

Blog by @justsand.bsky.social and me: A Million Lives at Risk?

White House proposing a two-thirds cut to global health and humanitarian funding. Using estimates of costs per life saved for US global health and humanitarian assistance suggests the cuts could lead to one million deaths.

Skilled immigration on the chopping block? Effects of eliminating "Optional Practical Training" in the US The White House has taken numerous steps to sharply reduce the number of immigrant workers, with or without legal status, in the US economy. These policies, so far, typically target immigrants with le...

They're terminating OPT.

Today the nominee to head USCIS stated directly: he will end Optional Practical Training, the single largest channel for high-skill immigrants to work in the US.

6 weeks ago I warned about this & summarized the research on impacts of this drastic action—> @piie.com

Thanks, Michael — far too kind

Thank you, in particular, to my brilliant CGD colleagues, who created such a supportive and intellectually vibrant place to work. CGD's mission of influencing rich-world policy to the benefit of the global poor remains unqiue and vital.

Proud to have been a small part of it.

Some personal/professional news...

After 14 (!) years, this was my last week at @cgdev.org

Posted a longer thread on the other site, and will share more later on what's next. For now, just want to say thank you.

Redefining America’s Interests? Trump’s FY2026 Budget Proposes Sweeping Cuts to US Foreign Aid The Trump administration unveiled an overview of its FY2026 budget request on Friday. While short on details, the document offers a grim forecast for US development and humanitarian spending. In seeki...

The Trump admin’s FY2026 budget proposes deep cuts to US dev. & humanitarian aid, reflecting a shift in global engagement.

@ecollinson.bsky.social & @justinrhurley.bsky.social highlight a key choice for Congress: endorse this retreat or pursue a more balanced approach ⬇️
bit.ly/3Z8LIRU