Jakob Terp-Hansen

Why hasn't Trump received a "rally around the flag" bump in his approval rating?
I made every presidential approval chart you could ever want to explain www.gelliottmorris.com/p/i-graphed-...

Vance was ‘skeptical’ voice in White House on Iran strikes White House officials revealed that the vice president made his opposition known in the leadup.

”Vice President JD Vance was skeptical of the U.S. striking Iran in the leadup to President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the war, two senior Trump officials told POLITICO.”

Det er nemlig et andet, temmelig vigtigt spørgsmål!

Ja, jeg mener, et vigtigt spørgsmål for midtvejsvalget - lige nu - er, om det politiske klima er a la 2020 eller 2018. Hvis det er 2020, kan TX blive svært. Hvis det er 2018, kan det være væsentligt mere realistisk (eksemplificeret ved Beto)

Tog et kig på kampen om Senatet med afsæt i primærvalgene i Texas:

Demokraterne har et svært valgkort, men er hjulpet på vej af det politiske klima, som det ser ud nu.

U.S. Military Action Against Iran: Over Half Of Voters Oppose It, 74% Oppose Sending Ground Troops Into Iran, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Vast Majority Expects The Conflict To Last ... "Voters are unenthusiastic about the air attack on Iran and there is overwhelming opposition to putting American troops on Iranian soil to fight a ground war," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analy...

Ny Quinnipiac-måling:

“Fifty-three percent of voters oppose the U.S. military action against Iran, while 40 percent support it.”

Also seems to dovetail with Trump’s own positions? On the one hand, he criticized the Iraq War and “endless wars.” On the other hand, he also wants to project strength - a tension that has made his views on military action somewhat difficult to interpret at times.

Opinion of Trump’s military actions are malleable … but approval of Trump barely budges

Opinion of Trump’s military actions are malleable
… but approval of Trump barely budges.

open.substack.com/pub/charlesa...

“According to a simple average of new high-quality surveys, 38% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran.“

Helt klart spillet en rolle.

Heftigt.

Stor, men ikke overraskende nyhed: Trump annoncerer, at Kristi Noem ryger ud som minister for indenlandsk sikkerhed.

Exclusive | Trump Is Preparing to Fire Kristi Noem The president has already been asking aides and congressional Republicans for names of potential replacements for the DHS secretary.

Så er det vist et spørgsmål om tid.

Mere Noem: “White House officials have already discussed names of potential replacements for Noem, including Republican Sens. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma and Steve Daines of Montana, according to two of the people familiar with the discussions.”

NEW: Per statement, US House Republican leadership has asked Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) to withdraw from his race for re-election

How the Decision to Start a War Became the President’s Presidents have sidestepped Congress to launch limited military strikes for decades. Trump’s decision to attack Iran is an aggressive escalation.

News Analysis: U.S. presidents have sidestepped Congress to launch limited military strikes for decades. President Trump’s decision to attack Iran is an aggressive escalation.

“President Donald Trump has quietly asked Hill Republicans if he should fire Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, the latest sign of her tenuous standing inside the West Wing, according to multiple Republicans who have spoken with the president.”

Daines Drops Re-election Bid in Montana, Upending a Senate Race The surprise announcement by Senator Steve Daines could give Democrats a slim opening in the Republican-leaning state in their uphill fight to take the Senate majority.

Breaking News: In a surprise announcement, Senator Steve Daines, the Montana Republican, said he would not seek re-election.

By a vote of 47-53, the #Senate did not agree to the motion to discharge from Foreign Relations Committee, S.J. Res.104, Kaine Iran War Powers Resolution.

GOP Senator Paul voted in favor.

Democrat Senator Fetterman voted No.

Oversight Committee votes to subpoena AG Pam Bondi over Epstein files

Massivt for Cornyn i så fald.

The AP is projecting a runoff in the GOP primary for #TX23, where scandal-plagued Rep. Tony Gonzales and YouTube gun influencer Brandon Herrera each have 43%. (In fact, they're currently separated by just 4 votes, although it doesn't matter who finishes first.)

Blev eksempelvis overhalet højre om af Toth, der også fik støtte fra Cruz, hvilket næppe var uvæsentligt.

Siddende medlem af Repræsentanternes Hus Dan Crenshaw taber sit primærvalg!

James Talarico vinder Demokraternes primærvalg til Texas’ senatsvalg.

Ken Paxton og senator John Cornyn skal i runoff på den republikanske side.

Her opbakningen og modstanden mod Iran-angrebene i de syv målinger, jeg kunne finde. Kigger nærmere på resultaterne i nyhedsbrevet i dag og eksaminerer også kritikken fra Tucker Carlson, MTG med flere:
usapol.dk/tidlige-tal-...

Ny CNN-måling (28/2-1/3): “Overall, 59% of Americans disapprove of the initial decision to strike Iran, with 41% approving.”

“Tucker Carlson, a far-right podcaster who has long promoted conspiratorial views about Israel, met with Trump three times in the Oval Office over the past month, using the meetings—each lasting roughly 90 minutes—to urge the president against striking Iran.”

Ja, det er mudret lige nu. Måske billedet bliver klarere i den kommende uge, og der er kommet flere tal.