Billy Carpenter

I was feeling a *little* more sanguine before I saw that Sunderland were 16th in xG with the fewest shots on target in the league. They sure look better than that every time I tune in.

The only sub thing I'm really questioning is that the late-match felt prime for Hincapié: runny, energy-y, fighty, duelly, shithousey, secure.

Runny attackers = more outlets = more possession = fewer waves of opponent pressure late = a much easier job of defending. Obvious, but somebody like Martinelli or Madueke is a lovely defensive sub, in other words. We had none.

Adventures Breaking back-fives, what numbers have changed (and what haven't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more

Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.

Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.

I don't know the threshold, but it's the amount of power put behind the shot. "primary intention being power"

kicky hardy

Important shifts, as I went through @gradientsports.bsky.social data:

— Arsenal now lead the league in “open play power shots” (26)
— This is 12 more than the second-highest team
— Arsenal have the highest percentage of “power shots” in the league (19%)
— Eze leads this league (7).

Adventures Breaking back-fives, what numbers have changed (and what haven't), how Eze differs from Ødegaard, Saliba in midfield, scattered notes on Rice and Gyökeres, and more

Here's my Arsenal long-read, just for you.

Attacking back-fives, analytics, tactics, a deeper look at what has (and hasn't) changed, and a whole lot more.

Big newsletter coming after this one, by the way.

Hincapié o'clock.

Gabriel, Timber, Saka

Diabolical subs.

Real ones know.

Haha, one of my takeaways as well.

"Everybody is doing long throws."

No, everybody is *trying* to do long throws. Like three people actually are.

Yeah, I've been working on Post-Towel expected Threat (PTxT ±).

Basically, you take the expected threat of the throw-in after treatment (i.e, towel), and subtract the value of control (i.e, comparable, towelless throw-ins).

My wife hasn't seen me in three weeks. Will report back.

Responsibility The mental load of a modern player, and how Arsenal are changing in attack to swarm the box in numbers

There's a solid section in the last one about him (in the middle), and specifically, about how he's causing a lot of the collapses of opponent structure (as we saw yesterday). Some interesting numbers in there too if you missed it

billycarpenter.substack.com/p/responsibi...

I have approximately 64 bullets that I'm considering writing about for Arsenal. What micro-topic are you interested in me exploring right now?

Celebrate all you want, but all I see is a nil-nil draw on set pieces. ☹️

Arsenal needed a quicker trigger.

Same karate kick that created the first Gyökeres goal against Atleti.

Shooters shoot.

Here's the big one.

All-out, repeat intensity: Sustains high-intensity work through 90+ (recovery runs, counter-press jumps, potential for overlaps). Frame + movement: 6'0–6'1, plays “tall” vs wingers; long, dextrous legs; side-on, knees bent, short active steps. Leap lets him contest up a level; pre-aerial duel muscling improving. More feisty than domineering. Pace: Wide speed (CL top-end 34.8 km/h). Fastest when carrying up the left touchline; short recoveries solid, medium-or-longer excellent. Technique: Clean first touch, economical actions, but not a hips-loose winger-quality dribbler. Right foot functional but not overly interesting. Temperament: Formerly way over-amped (13Y/3R in 22/23); calibrating more: yellows/90 dropped (0.48→0.12), reds mostly gone last two seasons, still hints of over-aggression. Smart, tactically aware, adjusted to Alonso quickly. Ferocious in duels, composed in possession.

I've been experimenting with one-pagers to condense my longer scouting reports into key insights for coaches. Basically: how to set a player up for success.

Here’s a draft for Piero Hincapié, whose time is near.

Great call.

Still have some stubborn faith in Jesus (football player). If he loses a step, it'll impact his ability to win wide, but he has it in him to be a ghosting, combining, more typical box striker, as we saw before the injury. He is one smart motherfucker.

"The demands of the game stay the same. There's only three things that happen in a game. You've got it. They've got it. And no one's got it."
- Dyche 07/01/25

Man Tells Internet Arsenal Fans They Are Too Calm About Something

My mild take is that Arsenal's fans are a touch too calma about depth. Great players are great players and they're hard to replace for a reason. Being able to cover them 90% is excellent, but still not 100%.

Yep, your point holds weight for sure.

“Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.”

Upon deep personal reflection, I think I'd do Eze for his second-phase cleanup shots

Why that's so important:
soccerment.com/shot-quality...

Brentford reliably focus on marginal gains like this (shot quality) to outperform their transfer budget: they're 17th in net spend since they were promoted (21/22), and have finished top-half in the last four seasons