Billy Carpenter

I knew Man City had struggled in second halves, but was still surprised to see they have the fewest goals by subs in the whole league (1). And that was Cherki in the first week. None since.

Aggregating "duels won %" has its limits. If the mix of duels changes (more attacking 1v1, less low-blocking, etc), that number shifts. This is because duels aren't equally meaningful or difficult. Defensive duels are by nature higher percentage (62.5% win rate this year, per Wyscout).

😍

How to expect more from xG Getting from shot probabilities to team performance metrics

Expected goals are everywhere now, but there's so much more we can do with them. Here's how futi turns basic xG into team-level metrics including deserved results, projected points and projected finish.

Overlaps are tiring and can clog space. This shows a situation meeting the right conditions.

1. Saka has a clean 1v1 (no cover), so Timber can arrive at pace, forcing handoff.
2. Saka slows/jinks inside to pin the marker.
3. Flat-footed defender can’t match Timber’s inertia.

The quintessential Gyökeres goal does hit different. Very satisfying.

— Spurs: Cutback to Eze (deflected, no assist) — Wolves: Olimpico off post + Johnstone’s head (OG) — Wolves: GW assist to “Jesus” (OG, Mosquera) — Wigan: Cutback cross (OG) — Palace: Nasty corner into mixer (OG, Lacroix) — Inter: Corner to Trossard (who headed it back to Jesus) — Fulham: Corner, Gabriel grazes it, Trossard goal — Villa: Corner to Gabriel v Emi (no assist?)

Just listed off some of Saka's statistical misfortunes off the top of my head.

All goals, but the screenshot collectively includes 0 A for Saka.

He's also created 4-5 missed tap-ins.

Below (via Fotmob)

Movement of those four (Tross, Eze, Hincapié, Rice) was really good. Tross was just kinda off in final actions.

Arteta is gonna revert to his old ways (mostly playing opponents who aren't Spurs) and it's fucking disgusting

Eze usage vs Spurs

Eze usage 😍

"I've started to understand how we're going to get the best out of him now." — Arteta

With Hincapié playing, you can get 90%+ of this at LW from him, btw. And you get Ødegaard, too.

Most tackles vs Spurs
1. Piero Hincapié (7)
2. Cristhian Mosquera (5)

Neither player was dribbled past.

The first-half thing, especially away, is very very tactical

After 20 league starts, Gyökeres is yet to have a first-half goal in open play. 973 minutes.

Just call a spade a spade.

Other first halves, away:
— Brentford: 1 shot (0 on target)
— Leeds: 2 shots (2 on target)
— Forest: 7 shots (0 on target)
— Bournemouth: 5 shots (1 on target)
— Everton: 6 shots (1 on target)

I would argue Arsenal have a bigger first-half problem than a second-half problem.

Arsenal have scored:
— 19 goals in 27 first halves
— 33 goals in 27 second halves

9 points lower than City in 1H, top by far in 2H.

Shouldn't be satisfied with 1-0 with 7 shots at Wolves.

I've been told it's been sent to coaching staff 😂

Lots of tagging/forwarding to Arteta and others on [the bad place] as well

Below, "Wildcard" is the one where we could do same-footed wingers. Martinelli RW, Saka/Madueke LW, flooding the middle with Havertz, Eze, Ødegaard, Rice, Timber, MLS, etc.

Arsenal possible lineups

Horses for courses.

Sketching out ideas for how to improve Arsenal's selection issues by a) improving complementary relationships across the pitch and b) better matching player skillsets to different game-states.

All game state.

And would argue against the second point: can't be taking wingers further from goal just to pump crosses into somebody who is not good at aerials or finishing crosses.

That was the sixth game that Martinelli and Gyökeres have started together in the Premier League. In those games, they’ve combined for 0 goals and 0 assists. Martinelli is 4-for-15 on crosses, and Gyökeres is yet to have a shot on target.

-- midfield fatigue
-- lack of an aerial outlet in front means your choice is either to turn it over long, or try something individualish
-- i think raya (likely tactical) still makes decisions as if gyok/jesus can bring down high aerials regularly

It's all in here.

Above all, this is about how you widen your outcomes and loosen the evil grip of variance. When you stop living and dying on one route, one bounce, one finish, one set piece, shit will stop falling from the sky.

Yesterday, I published a 9,000-word critique of the Arsenal attack, with thoughts on how to improve the selections and the groupings. Here's how it ended:

Selection issues compound. You're unable to push the advantage in the first half, then you have the wrong profiles available in the second half. Players look "off" when they are not put in situations to succeed.

I love Arteta. But he is not seeing many of his players clearly.

For club and country in 25/26, when William Saliba plays 45+ minutes:

26 wins
6 draws
1 loss

Triangles With more options, selection gets harder. Who unlocks who?

With more options, selection gets harder. Here are 9,000 words on Arsenal’s attack: what Arteta has gotten right and wrong, why certain lineups have misfired, and which little groupings can take it up a level.

And I you.

Triangles With more options, selection gets harder. Who unlocks who?

With more options, selection gets harder. Here are 9,000 words on Arsenal’s attack: what Arteta has gotten right and wrong, why certain lineups have misfired, and which little groupings can take it up a level.

It's more than competition levels.

(Of course, that's a big factor).

It's players being used correctly.

Volume I 23,000 words on the future of football, yours to download and keep.

Here is the project I've poured my entire soul into for the last six weeks. If you like my football writing and find yourself thinking 'wow, I wish I could read 23,000 words of this,' you might enjoy Volume I.

I'm very, very proud of this: