But on the nature of support if this looks like an overly low cut off with a steep cliff edge like winter fuel round 1, it will inevitably fuel anger of the squeezed middle on the issue which has been their top frustration for the past 5 years. Narrative and design will really matter.
I think now *might* be different, similar to Sunak breaking the 2019 pledge on NI justified as NHS covid recovery, you *might* get away given public concern about energy bills as the primary driver of cost of living with something like the Labour Together temporary 2p income tax proposal
On the flipside, i was very sceptical that govt would have been able to land breaking pledge on tax in the Autumn, people just didn't believe circs had changed from when the promise was made and was meant to cover the parliament and would have been disaster for trust and fuelled flight from Lab. But
Also worth remembering even if targeting is right in policy terms it will largely be Labour's voters who lose out the most. Even though it goes against the party psyche the party performs best with those who feel most financially secure and least well with those who say they struggle
Which is why beware polling that shows people do support targeting those most in need as lots of people will self identify into that category! Better to look at what the response to specific thresholds is.
If there is a v. sharp low cut off this would be worse (as with winter fuel). If instead is about restricting payments to the v wealthy/well off that is likely to command support as long as it doesn't reinforce squeezed middles pains - concern about bills only drops off above £100,000 household inc
That sense that doing the right thing isn't rewarded and that people who aren't rich are left to struggle has been part of the thermostatic turn against welfare spending/public spending in general.
But the risk is this reinforces frustration of a group who feel they aren't well off but also miss out. A nurse in a focus group summed it up previously 'the rich get looked after, people on benefits get looked after, but people who work and do the right thing struggle' and we hear lots of this.
🧵 There are risks to Govt in a targeted bills subsidy, if they are going to win argument will have to learn from winter fuel and other welfare rows. First need to land argument that hasn't been ever won on UC - that it isn't just helping people out of work, but people on low pay (& pensioners)
I should probably post the tracker too
That’s what we try and explore in qual more and we’ve done some attribute questions too. Broadly Badenoch bounce is more people saying things like “she’s tough, gutsy, no nonsense” etc. she’s cut through more. But it’s not shifting Tory poll rating as many all say Tories wasted vote.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, conflict in Middle East has broken through into Britons’ top 5 big issues.
💷 Cost of Living 64%
🏥NHS 36%
🛃 Levels of immigration* 31%
🛥️ Channel crossings* 28%
🚁Conflict in the Middle East 25%
*48% pick at least one (excluding double counters) of immigration or crossings
In the leader approval ratings Badenoch hits her highest since becoming leader at -6. The first time she’s been ahead of all four other main party leaders. Starmer also up from his low though still far behind the pack at -41. Davey (-10) Polanski (-12), Farage (-13)
Reform lead by 8 in this week’s voting intention. Labour jump up 4 from their low last week, while the Greens drop back post Gorton
➡️ REF UK 30% (+1)
🌹 LAB 22% (+4)
🌳 CON 19% (nc)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (-1)
🌍 GREEN 11% (-3)
🟡 SNP 2% (-1)
N = 2,112 | 6-9/3| Change w 2/03
What’s even worse is when I bring up love actually with my team and they look at me blankly that’s societal decline in action
Whether international issues lead to a permanent bump in approval is another matter (evidence suggests not). But for now - people back Starmer's position on the strikes, think he's doing it for the right reasons and are happy for him to stand up for Trump.
But overall it's about as good as it gets for Keir Starmer at the moment on Iran, and the most cheery polling for the PM we've got back in some time (cost of living could of course change this).
The UK Govt will have to show that it is able to do all it can to protect the safety of its citizens abroad. A danger point for the Government could emerge if they are seen to be unable to do that and more events like Cyprus are seen to expose UK weakness
Most Brits do not believe that Britain is any longer a major power on the world stage, though Labour voters are more likely to than average to think we are. Most of the public now think that the UK is a middle power.
The median Brit also backs Starmer's position of allowing UK bases to be used for defensive strikes but not offensive operations. Just 9% of Brits would like to see the UK fully joining the conflict.
Most Brits think the US is bombing Iran out of self-interest not to help the Iranian people. But they tend to think that Keir Starmer's decision to oppose the strikes is borne out of principled opposition rather than seeing political benefit.
Despite that the majority of Brits continue to think that the UK and the US have many of the same interests on the world stage, the only voter group who don't are Green 2024 voters who are more likely to say we have few interests.
Only a third of Brits now believe that there is a special relationship between the UK and the US, down 4 points from summer last year. A majority believe there either is no longer one or never was one.
Brits also disapprove of Trump's comments about Starmer. Remembering that Starmer is not himself popular, it's striking 58% think Trump was wrong to make the Churchill attack on Trump, even Tory voters are more likely to say he was wrong than right, Reform voters the exception.
🆕 🇬🇧 vs🇺🇸 Most Brits now want a Love Actually moment from Keir Starmer.
In Jan 2025, Brits were more likely to say Starmer should prioritise working with Trump than standing up to him.
Today that has flipped 55% think priority is standing up to Trump, just 27% working with him
🏳️🌈At the very end of last year we looked again at voting intention by sexual orientation
➡️Reform led 🌹Labour by 11 with straight men
➡️Reform led 🌳Tories by 6 with straight women
➡️Reform led 💚Greens by 6 with gay & bisexual men
💚Greens led 🌹Labour by 16 (!) among gay & bisexual women
None of this means brand is definitely irrecoverable, if Reform stumble OR look like they'll always be blocked by tactical voting voters who want Lab out may return, debate moving onto economy may help, but if as seems likely May is a disaster, strong horse may make it even harder to get a hearing
And what i think the KB bounce but no VI bounce shows is they are not dealing with a leadership problem here, (arguably opposite the party is a drag on her) that means there's no quick fix replacement option - which is why it might be the case that trying to strengthen team around her may help a bit
Should it be unusual for a party that has just lost power after 14 years not to have recovered in voters eyes yet - absolutely not - Tories by 1999 hadn't shifted brand perception at all from 1997, but they didn't have a challenger party to their right, there was time (13 years in fact!)
Simply put their brand hasn't recovered at all since the election, and while they are (just) the party people are most likely to say they trust on the economy, on immigration an issue they used to reliably own Reform is ahead, meaning everytime it has salience Reform benefit.
