Luke Tryl

Leader approvals - it’s very close at the top with Davey on -12 and Badenoch and Farage on -14. Starmer is far behind on -41 though this is higher than he’s been since Autumn, which from qual seems to reflect a recurring international affairs bounce.

Little change to the broad pattern, Reform ahead, Labour and Tories fight for second; Lib Dems and Greens for fourth, though this is the highest Labour share since the Autumn.

Labour leapfrog into second in this week’s voting intention on 22%. Reform’s lead drops to 7 on 29%, with the Tories third on 20%.

➡️ REF UK 29% (-2)
🌹 LAB 22% (+2)
🌳 CON 20% (-1)
🔶 LIB DEM 13% (nc)
🌍 GREEN 10% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (+1)

N = 2,016 | 23 - 25/01| Change w 21/01

An NHS, but for pets. The National Pet Service.
Surely the most popular policy imaginable?

Might be that or possibly international focus? PM seems to do well when he;’s seen to be handling trump well?

More seriously is another good eg that while lots of cost of living is out of govt control there are a series of things govt can now show it’s trying to help particular groups - inc freezing train fares, prescriptions, lowering vet bills, energy subsidies removed, ground rents

Touches on one of the three British public opinion holy trinity (animals and pets), now if only you could ban them from certain prices and make more vets take apprentices you’d hit bingo.

Labour +52

Thrilled to discover Jo Malone actually does Rowan Atkinson’s Love Actually approach to gift wrapping in real life.

But Trump probably poses the biggest current risk to Reform, and from a point of pure electability it is surely going to drive more moments where Farage (as on ICE) has to part with the US President - to date that hasn't led to voters thinking they're not pals, but may in future

Flip side is geopolitical risk makes it harder for Starmer to achieve domestic priorities, if there isn't sufficient progress on domestic front people think it's worth taking the gamble anyway, it hasn't yet toppled Reform from poll position and even in Canada it also required a change of leader.

A reasonable challenge is Trump won't be in office then - but that assumes a 2029 election, that his successor isn't continuity MAGA or that it doesn't leave people worried about that style of politics - there's also the possibility of a national rally president in france.

But women are esp likely to say that Trump is a barrier to voting for Reform UK and it came out particularly strongly in our focus group of mothers in Stevanage who had voted Labour and were now considering Reform - you can read great @bethanymrd.bsky.social write up www.politico.eu/article/nige...

This seems to be particularly true of female voters. Making gains with women has been vital for Reform's rise in the polls, they actually have a more even gender balance among their voters than the Labour Party now whose support is now very male.

But only 17% think being Britain's Trump is a good thing. In groups and polling we have tended to find allegations of racism at school don't tend to move voters (progressives are an exception but unlikely to vote Reform anyway). Nor does the defections = recycled Tories, but the Trump link seems to.

On politics then - the immediate challenge it poses is to Nigel Farage and Reform - just over half of voters say calling Farage Britain's Trump describes him well. In groups (with Reform curious voters) we hear worries Farage would be too like Trump or controlled by him.

We also know Trump is unpopular in the UK -40 net approval rating and don't like his domestic or foreign policy, but more than that it's the sense he as countless people have said versions. of in groups "makes me worried for the world my kids will grow up in"

Firstly fair to say Trump has been close to the top of every focus group we've run in the New Year "“I feel he’s pushing us towards world war three" or [asked what the biggest threat to the UK was] "“I think Trump, full stop.”. People are genuinely worried/discombobulated/scared

🧵Combination of what's happened to polls in Denmark and Canada (again), along with our UK polling and focus groups over the past few weeks has made me revise upward what I think likelihood and impact of a Trump effect on UK electoral politics could be.

Honestly think making a Burnham/Starmer; Heated Rivalry link might be enough to justify the end of the free press.

This is why we can’t have nice things.

Mahmood increasingly seems like one of the governments best communicators, direct in a way that avoids perception of typical political evasiveness and with a nice way of bringing interviews back to the public’s concerns

Hands down one of the most deserved traitors wins. Loved it, love that show.

All the data above (and mayoral elections) suggests it’s harder to find a better candidate than Burnham for that. Add to that blocking him makes Labour look like infighting and PM weak and if they lose blame would then be easily laid on Starmer, hard to see a good outcome from blocking AB.

So this is going to be a tough race for any Lab candidate. But that definitely needs someone who can unite the left and peel off some of those who might otherwise vote Reform (partic the group who feel overlooked by Westminster).

The risk for Labour is a splintered left vote lets Reform in - OR arguably worse there’s a Caerphilly moment where progressives flock to the Greens and Labour end up squeezed out of contention entirely.

With bug caveat that MRPs aren’t designed to predict by-elections (swings are often outsized, or weird see Uxbridge). A starting point is this would be a tight Lab-Ref race, but with a big Green vote. The seat also has a big Muslim population among some of whom Labour are struggling to regain trust.

Looking at voter groups, Starmer as mentioned does better with current Labour voters, but Burnham does better with all other groups, including Lib Dem and Green voters, and significantly better with Reform voters too. Both those things matter in context of by-election.

If you look at two groups of Labour 2024 voter, those who’d stick with the party and those who now say they’d vote elsewhere, both Starmer and Burnham are popular with Labour loyalists (esp Starmer). But among switchers Burnham has +24 favourability, Starmer -51. Though Burnham less well known.

🧵Some thoughts on Burnham. His national favour ability is + 4, doesn’t sound huge, but compared to most politicians it’s pretty good and rises to +20 in the North West. Obviously part of this will be he’s not a govt minister, but focus groups in Greater Mancs he is often raised positively.

Both groups 18 months was mentioned!