Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦

Unlike a 'little black book,' the Fed's beige one spills the country's economic secrets The Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book several times a year to provide a summary of economic activity, labor markets, prices and other factors.

www.kare11.com/article/news... Prof. @tkehoe.bsky.social on @kare11.bsky.social analyzing the Fed's latest Beige Book: "Rough times are ahead." Kehoe warns about tariff uncertainty: "When we have no idea what tariffs will look like in six months, we can't make plans."

This is an excellent analysis of the business and leadership crisis in the WNBA right now. Stop reading the other stuff out there and spend 10 minutes or so reading this.

Openness and Growth: A Comparison of the Experiences of China and Mexico | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

In latest Quarterly Review @tkehoe.bsky.social and Xing Xu of @hellerhurwicz.bsky.social examine the diverging fortunes of Mexico and China. Both are world-leading exporters that have opened their economies dramatically -- but with very different paths of economic growth. https://bit.ly/3V2Ac8A

Openness and Growth: A Comparison of the Experiences of China and Mexico | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Mexico and China are the export leaders among middle-income countries. Both have opened their economies dramatically since the 1990s. In latest QR @tkehoe.bsky.social and Xing Xu of @hellerhurwicz.bsky.social diagnose why China has grown more than 10X while Mexico stagnated. bit.ly/3V2Ac8A #EconSky

More of this.

One detail an Epstein survivor noted in today's presser: DOJ did not inform Ghislaine Maxwell's victims she was being moved to cozier digs.

China and Mexico opened up around 1990. Examining why China grew faster than Mexico and continues to grow faster even though it depends less on trade and foreign investment, from @tkehoe.bsky.social and Xing Xu https://www.nber.org/papers/w34181

New study compares economic experiences of China and Mexico after they opened to international trade and foreign investment by Xing Xu, PhD student at UMN Econ ‪
@umn-econ.bsky.social‬ and research analyst at Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social and me:
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sta...

Much recent Chinese growth is due to government investment in infrastructure and in R&D. We conclude

"It is possible that China has overinvested in these areas. Such overinvestment could have resulted in a higher growth rate, but also in a lower level of private consumption and household welfare."

New study compares economic experiences of China and Mexico after they opened to international trade and foreign investment by Xing Xu, PhD student at UMN Econ ‪
@umn-econ.bsky.social‬ and research analyst at Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social and me:
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sta...

New study comparing economic experiences of China and Mexico after they opened to international trade and foreign investment by Xing Xu, PhD student at UMN Econ ‪@umn-econ.bsky.social‬ and research analyst at Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social and me:
www.minneapolisfed.org/research/sta...

Argentine inflation data questioned even after reforms By Hugh Bronstein

After President Fernandez told Argentina's statistical agency to make up inflation data in 2007, country had problems selling bonds for years. Trump's firing of BLS Commissioner yesterday will cause problems for U.S.

With Trump's deficits, we need to sell bonds!

www.reuters.com/article/mark...

Scotland responds to President Trump's complaints about windmills during his visit there

...by building more windmills!

www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Students in every university macroeconomics course in the world learn about falsification of Argentinean data by President Fernandez. President Trump has probably guaranteed himself long-term fame by his actions yesterday.

At least President Fernandez wanted false inflation data to save on government payments to holders of inflation indexed bonds. President Trump is only worried about looking bad.

5 questions Trump faces after dismal jobs report; BLS commissioner firing President Trump’s economic pitch took a serious hit Friday after the latest federal jobs report revealed stunning weakness in the labor market. He responded by firing the commissioner of the Bureau of...

President Trump fired BLS Commissioner because he thinks revisions to jobs reports for past three months make him look bad. President Cristina Fernandez fired officials at Argentina's National Statistics Institute (INDEC) in 2007 because she wanted lower inflation data.
www.yahoo.com/news/article...

Ariel Burstein presents the third and final plenary lecture, on Economic Efficiency with Heterogeneous Consumers, at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics at the beautiful Central Campus of the University of Copenhagen.

Two photos from Annual Meeting of Society for Economic Dynamics in Copenhagen: (L) me presenting my work with Aloisio Araujo and Juan Pablo Gama; (R) Ayşegül Şahin’s last slide of her plenary address.

Per Krusell introducing Ayşegül Şahin to present her research on Labor Market Dynamics in the second plenary session at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics at the beautiful Central Campus of the University of Copenhagen.

Paco Buera presenting his work on Macro-Development, the first plenary session at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Economic Dynamics on the beautiful campus of the University of Copenhagen.

“Artificial Intelligence and Learning the Macroeconomy: Workshop in Honor of Albert Marcet,” BSE Summer Forum, 19-20 June 2025.

S3E1: The Economics of Trump Tariffs and U.S. Trade Policy Heller-Hurwicz Office Hours · Episode

New Office Hours episode: The turn away from free trade has been a major shift. Tune in to hear economists Tim Kehoe (@tkehoe.bsky.social) and Chris Phelan share their perspectives on how the president's approach to trade policy is playing out for the United States. open.spotify.com/episode/6eBS...

Ph.D. Commencement at U of Minnesota: I am with Gabriel Devoto @gabriel-devoto.bsky.social and Mauricio Barbosa Alves @mbarbosaalves.bsky.social, thesis advisees and members of Manuel Amador’s and my research workshop in international economics. Gabriel goes to IMF and Mauricio to U of Kentucky.

Ph.D. Commencement at U of Minnesota: I am with Gabriel Devoto @gabriel-devoto.bsky.social and Mauricio Barbosa Alves @mbarbosaalves.bsky.social, thesis advisees and members of Manuel Amador’s and my research workshop in international economics. Gabriel goes to IMF and Mauricio to U of Kentucky.

...

'Shocking': Experts question Trump claiming 'I don't know' about upholding Constitution President Donald Trump, a little more than 100 days after taking the oath of office, questioned whether he had a duty to uphold the Constitution and the Fifth Amendment right to due process as he expr...

Critics are upset President Trump said, "I'm not a lawyer. I don't know" in response to whether migrants are entitled to due process when 5th Amendment says they are.

I think that we should give Trump a break. He is clearly in cognitive decline, maybe Alzheimer's.

www.yahoo.com/news/experts...

If you have a subscription to the Economist, you will notice that the article -- like the Ballmer Peak and my post -- has a humorous side to it.

Why economists should like booze A martini doesn’t just steady the nerves after a rollercoaster week

This week's Economist:

"Studies suggest that alcohol, deployed judiciously, can aid the creative process. [Researchers] have found that intoxicated people solved problems faster and 'were more likely to perceive their solutions as the result of a sudden insight.'"
www.economist.com/finance-and-...