@pward89.bsky.social and I were delighted to win the Best Article Award from APSA’s Democracy and Autocracy section for our @worldpolitics.bsky.social article “Elite Management Before Autocratic Leader Succession: Evidence from North Korea.” muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...
How do voters behave in democracies with unstable parties? In a newly published article in Party Politics, @pward89.bsky.social and I examine South Korea, a textbook case of an “ephemeral party system.” The article is Open Access.
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
Five days to go! Get my book written with @edwardgoldring.bsky.social for free while you can!
(Cross-post from X)
"Authoritarian Survival and Leadership Succession in North Korea and Beyond" by @pward89.bsky.social and me is now out with @cambridgeuppolisci.bsky.social
It's FREE to download until Feb. 18: doi.org/10.1017/9781...
So, what's in the Element...
New Cambridge Element 'Authoritarian Survival and Leadership Succession in North Korea and Beyond' by @edwardgoldring.bsky.social & @pward89.bsky.social is now free to read for 2 weeks.
cup.org/411VOW4
#cambridgeelements #politics
Is Man United an autocracy?
The plot twist is that, during a post-vote presser, Kim reveals that, and I am summarizing, "I am a conservative and will vote the party line", which is to oppose impeachment. He added that he doesn't support boycotting the vote.
I also was very skeptical too. But I think the DP had contingency plans. Their capacity to react so quickly and effectively points to them having thought seriously about how they would react if it happened.
Oh crap I shouldn’t have said he was a client, oh crap I shouldn’t have said it was a msecret. Oh crap, I should certainly not have said it was illegal.. Ah it’s too hot in here.
The second issue is a bit obscure, but the constitutional court needs to rule for the president ejected from office, and they need to appoint additional judge(s) for the trial to begin, and the president has to agree to the appointments of judges.
Pleasure!
An attack on naval assets or islands in the West Sea like we have seen before could still happen. But what would they gain right now, aside from creating serious discord in SK? And would such discord be worth the risk of a large scale response?
KJU and Kim Yo Jong made a bunch of bellicose statements earlier in the year, with KJU basically threatening war over the West Sea. Yet all they have done is escalate, in a highly limited fashion, in the gray zone with trash balloons.
But for me, the lack of serious attempts at actual military confrontation since 2010 (with the exception of that terrible but limited landmine incident that maimed two SK service people) makes me think they are rather risk averse when it comes to SK.
There was a view articulated by the current government that NK had sold all its excess munitions to Russia and was distracted by natural disasters at home. There is probably some truth to this.
There’s also the fact that it’s got forces in Russia right now as well.
Impeachment in 🇰🇷 requires:
- one-third of members to support proposal
- two-thirds to approve
- constitutional court ruling within 180 days
FWIW the opposition currently has 192/300 seats. DPP alone has 170.
President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law in South Korea, citing alleged anti-state activities by opposition forces. This extremely surprising move grants the military authority over civilian affairs. Why did this happen? Some context and thoughts are below.
apnews.com/article/sout...
It will be interesting to see how elite opinion shifts after Trump returns. The China hawk picks for State and NatSec Advisor may reassure a bit because they are likely to be pro-alliance. But who knows how much influence they will have over US-ROK alliance…
Well, here I am. Hopefully this will be less addictive but more productive than Twitter, but also more funny too. Seems like an impossible combination…
