Peter Thal Larsen

Retaining Elon Is More Important Than Ever Before Today, Tesla is at a critical inflection point that has the potential to create continued extraordinary value for you, the shareholders. Through Elon’s unique vision and leadership, Tesla is transitioning from its role as a leader in the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to grow towards becoming a leader in AI, robotics and related services. To succeed, it requires a leader who combines strategic foresight, adaptability, and relentless execution to outperform competition and inspire the team. Elon has demonstrated these unmatched leadership abilities time and time again with his unparalleled track record of delivering shareholder value since he joined as a founding figure and spearheaded the transformation of our extraordinary company

It's "becoming a leader in AI and robotics" apparently

Exclusive: Tesla's brand loyalty collapsed after Musk backed Trump, data shows Tesla for years had more repeat U.S. customers than any other major automotive brand but its loyalty has plunged since CEO Elon Musk endorsed President Donald Trump last summer, according to data from research firm S&P Global Mobility shared exclusively with Reuters.

Meanwhile: www.reuters.com/business/aut...

Tesla approves share award worth $29 billion to CEO Elon Musk Tesla has granted CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares worth about $29 billion, a move aimed at keeping the billionaire entrepreneur at the helm as he fights a court ruling that voided his original pay deal for being unfair to shareholders.

"we are confident that this award will incentivize Elon to remain at Tesla."
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

Luxury’s problem? The price isn’t right High-end brands have ignored the aspirational shopper. No wonder they’re in trouble

Sometimes the best explanations are the simplest ones.
on.ft.com/40LZniO

Five things I learned from Breakingviews this week: Over 2,500 objects were put into space last year, ten times more than a decade ago. The healthcare sector accounted for 44% of new US jobs in May. Online transactions in Hong Kong accounted for just 8% of retail sales last year, compared with 50% for most Chinese cities. Rates for backup power on the US electricity grid have increased 11-fold in two years. The CEOs of rail operators Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern started a presentation about their merger by invoking Abraham Lincoln.

NEW POST: Can investment banking takeovers ever succeed? Some thoughts on Evercore's $196 million acquisition of Robey Warshaw, plus other highlights from the @breakingviews.reuters.com team over the past week.
www.linkedin.com/pulse/week-b...

Time to start building a Li Keqiang Index for the U.S. economy

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves Said: "I welcome Brookfield's investment in Just Group. Brookfield are a major investor, and this commitment demonstrates strong faith in the UK economy as we deliver on the Plan for Change, reinforcing the fact that the UK remains one of the best places in the world for business which has attracted a record level of private sector investment since the election, worth £120bn."

This is very odd. The Chancellor of the Exchequer "welcomes" an offer for a public company, announced this morning.
What if Just Group shareholders say no? What if another buyer makes a higher bid? What if the UK's competition or financial regulators decide not to approve it?

Keen to know how many people who work at Meta had the opportunity to say "boss, I don't think publishing this is a good idea" and either chose not to, or were ignored.
www.meta.com/superintelli...

A blue and black logo AI-generated content may be incorrect. Evercore to Acquire Robey Warshaw, a Leading UK-Based Independent Advisory Firm LONDON and NEW YORK, July 30, 2025 – Evercore (NYSE: EVR) today announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Robey Warshaw, a highly successful independent advisory firm headquartered in the United Kingdom. Founded in 2013, Robey Warshaw has built a reputation as a trusted advisor to some of the most prominent multinational companies in Europe and has an impressive client franchise and track record. The consideration for the transaction is GBP 146 million, or USD 196 million, payable in two tranches, with the first payment in Evercore stock at closing, and the second payment at the one-year anniversary in stock or cash as agreed between Evercore and Robey Warshaw. There is also potential additional consideration which is based on defined performance criteria over a multi-year period. Evercore expects the acquisition to be accretive to its Adjusted and GAAP EPS in the first full year together and thereafter. The transaction is expected to close at the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2025.

Big price for a little M&A boutique: Evercore pays an initial £146 million for Robey Warshaw, the 14-person advisory shop that is the home of dealmaker Simon Robey and former chancellor George Osborne.

A review by UBS looking at contingency planning has concluded that London is one of the best options for an alternative location should the bank try and move, one of the sources said.

Union Bank of…Shoreditch?
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

🎙️ Trump’s tariff policy threatens to make Americans poorer while failing to bring back manufacturing jobs.

@philipcoggan.bsky.social joined @petertl.bsky.social on The Big View to explore the parallels with Britain’s foolish return to the gold standard a century ago.

Listen 👉 tinyurl.com/bdfrwf6j

Reuters headline: EU'S VON DER LEYEN, COMMENTING ON TRADE DEAL WITH TRUMP, 15% TARIFF RATE FOR VAST MAJORITY OF EU EXPORTS, INCLUDING CARS, SEMICONDUCTORS AND PHARMAS

Turns out the sectoral tariffs are also reciprocal (except steel). Back to the drawing board, everyone.

Musk ordered shutdown of Starlink satellite service as Ukraine retook territory from Russia A previously unreported order by Elon Musk to cut satellite communications over a portion of Ukraine disrupted a counteroffensive by Kyiv in the autumn of 2022. Reuters investigated the billionaire's order and its implications for countries increasingly reliant on his Starlink internet service.

Musk ordered shutdown of Starlink satellite service as Ukraine retook territory from Russia
www.reuters.com/investigatio...

Rachel Reeves considers overruling supreme court in £44bn car finance scandal Exclusive: Chancellor could step in if justices uphold entirety of ruling over commission paid to brokers

This debate just shows how confused the government is about growth and regulation. You cannot credibly talk about regulation being "a boot on the neck" of business one day, and then retrospectively rewrite the rules because you don't like a legal ruling.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...

Breakingviews - Netscape IPO casts a shadow from 1995 over AI boom Just as Marc Andreessen and Jim Clark ignited the internet frenzy with their market debut 30 years ago, $300 bln OpenAI lit the fuse on a new tech craze. The web browser's early lead quickly shrank when Microsoft got going. It’s just one of many ways its legacy looms large today.

Great piece looking back on the IPO of Netscape, 30 years ago next month, and the similarities and differences with the current AI craze.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Joint statement on Gaza from Reuters, AFP, The AP and BBC News Joint statement on Gaza from Reuters, AFP, AP and BBC News

"Journalists endure many deprivations and hardships in warzones. We are deeply alarmed that the threat of starvation is now one of them."
reutersagency.com/media-centre...

The world is run by old men in a hurry The advanced age of leaders is a destabilising force in international politics

"More than half of the world’s population, and much of its land area and military capacity, is in the hands of men who are older than Ronald Reagan was when he entered the White House at what seemed a dicey 69."
www.ft.com/content/1d41...

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Secures Unprecedented U.S.–Japan Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement A HISTORIC TRADE AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENT WITH JAPAN: Yesterday, President Donald J. Trump announced a landmark economic agreement with

Seems to me something calling itself a Fact Sheet should contain more actual facts.
www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/...

Yeah that’s true. The CEBR has tried to model the broader impact on GDP and employment, though pinning down the contribution from the average non-dom seems even trickier.

Breakingviews - Britain’s non-dom melodrama has uncertain finale Scrapping a tax break for foreign residents has sparked talk of an expat exodus. As those 42,000 people paid the UK 7 bln pounds a year, it’s a big fiscal risk. Yet the impact depends on how many leave and how much those who stay have stashed abroad. Both figures are a black box.

This is I think the extent of what we can say based on the data available at the moment. www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

Expectations management

Details, details

Breakingviews - Japan trade deal breaks US tariff template By lowering auto duties on Japan to 15%, Donald Trump is handing the Asian ally a decent win and making a big concession on his flagship sectoral levies. For other countries negotiating with Washington, it suggests that everything except a 10% baseline tariff is up for grabs.

Turns out the sectoral tariffs are also reciprocal. Back to the drawing board, everyone.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

strong "Rishi Sunak has a fireside chat with Elon Musk" vibes. Will probably age just as well.

Breakingviews - Big Pharma pioneers the TOFU tariff trade Markets reflect a widespread belief that the US president always chickens out on trade measures. AstraZeneca’s plan to invest $50 bln stateside implies that sector-specific levies are inevitable. The drug group and rivals like Roche are assuming Trump Occasionally Follows Up.

Big drugmakers are announcing hefty investments in US manufacturing, even before Donald Trump finalises his threatened tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals. It's less TACO, more TOFU: Trump Occasionally Follows Up.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

I believe the CEA report had the same number. Presumably this assumes minimal import substitution, and therefore little extra domestic manufacturing...

Breakingviews - Transshipment is the new dirty word of trade Donald Trump’s plan to slap diverging levies on $3.3 trln of US imports will encourage exporters to pretend goods are from low-tariff nations. “Rules of origin” are already hard to enforce. Now exporters, including those in China, will have bigger incentives to find workarounds.

From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Transshipment is the new dirty word of trade reut.rs/4eYqP2B

Daleep Singh You’re right. So far, tariff-driven inflation is like the dog that didn’t bark, to use a bit of Sherlock Holmes. We have the US effective tariff rate, it’s up 5x since January, but the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core PCE, it’s tracking below 2% on a three-month annualized basis. I think investors, my new colleagues, not necessarily where I work, but more generally, they’ve moved from, let’s say peak fear around tariffs, to I would say now peak complacency. I think that’s a mistake. And let’s do a bit of deductive reasoning as to what’s going on. I think there are only five possibilities for what could be happening here. One is that exporters are absorbing higher tariffs into their own profit margins. And if that were true, we would see export prices moving lower. But if you look at the sequential pattern of Chinese export prices, for example, they’re moving sideways to higher. So that’s not a good explanation. The second possibility is that maybe American producers are producing more to substitute for what they used to import, but there’s no evidence of that in the manufacturing output time series. I think a third possibility is that the US is substituting imports from non-tariffed or lesser-tariffed countries. And beyond the first quarter, when we saw that historic import surge, that does not appear to be happening. And then the fourth explanation that could have been at work is, maybe the dollar is strengthening to offset the higher cost of imported goods. And of course, that’s not happening. Not only is the dollar not strengthening, it’s weakening faster on a nominal basis than at any point over the past half a century. So, again, by deduction, the final possibility is that US importers are actually paying, and that’s what the data show. I mean, the US government collected $27 billion worth of tariff revenues in June. That’s up 3 to 4x versus January. And that just leaves one last microeconomic question. Will importers mostly absorb the hit …

This bit was a useful way of thinking about the ways in which tariffs might affect the US economy, and why inflation is probably on its way.

The perks and penalties of waging economic war Podcast Episode · The Big View · 22/07/2025 · 41m

New episode of THE BIG VIEW🎙️🎧: I talked to Daleep Singh, deputy US national security adviser under Joe Biden and now chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. A great conversation about sanctions, tariffs, economic security, globalisation, and markets. Listen here:
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...