Peter Thal Larsen

Peter Thal Larsen

@petertl.bsky.social

Global Editor, Reuters Breakingviews. Usual disclaimers apply. Signal: petertl.17 www.breakingviews.com

7,147 Followers 585 Following 1,927 Posts Joined Jul 2023
5 hours ago

Max Dowman becomes the youngest goalscorer in Premier League history.

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5 hours ago

The UK, France and others should say they’ll consider this if Trump drops all current and future tariffs, funds Ukraine for the next five years, and renounces any claim to Greenland.

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6 hours ago

“Has earned itself the label of fake news” is proper Orwell-grade doublethink

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11 hours ago
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Exclusive | Trump Administration Set to Receive $10 Billion Fee for Brokering TikTok Deal Investors in the social-media platform’s U.S. business agreed to give the government several multibillion-dollar payments, sources said.

Welcome to the high-tech extractive state.
www.wsj.com/tech/tiktok-...

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12 hours ago

On the other hand, best of luck to the Pentagon banker who tries to tap up Gulf royals for cash in the foreseeable future.

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14 hours ago
The Week in Breakingviews

Insights from Reuters global financial commentary team
 
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By Peter Thal Larsen, Global Editor
Welcome back! It’s been a week of studying shipping routes and commodity charts. Unlike some, though, we have not been entirely distracted by events in Iran. The Breakingviews team also dug into artificial intelligence accounting and private credit jitters, among many other topics. Let me know what interests you. If this newsletter was forwarded to you, sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekend.

Note: Links in this newsletter require a Breakingviews subscription. To sign up for a free trial, click here.
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“Sites like Polymarket and Kalshi can, in theory, reveal the truth about the future. Yet they risk being undermined by those who already know it.”

Read more: How insider-trading fears harm prediction markets.

The latest edition of The Week in Breakingviews is in subscribers’ inboxes, with thoughts on a drawn-out Iran war, prediction markets, water in the Middle East and what happens if OpenAI fails.

If you’re not already receiving it, sign up here: www.reuters.com/newsletters/...

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In search of Banksy, Reuters found the artist took on a new identity Anonymity has become part of a lucrative brand for the artist Banksy, but records we unearthed prove his true identity and show the new name he used to travel to Ukraine.

Who is Banksy? A @reuters.com investigation sheds fresh light on one of the art world's most mysterious figures.
www.reuters.com/investigates...

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1 day ago
Iran says it will only accept a ceasefire with international guarantees for its sovereignty, which would probably mean a direct role for Russia and China. It may also demand compensation for war damages and a verifiable ceasefire in Lebanon. The US would then have to agree to some form of the nuclear deal it left on the table in Geneva in February and commit to lifting sanctions.
Iran's leaders entered this war with the goal of ensuring it will be the last one.
Either it breaks them or radically changes the country's circumstances. They are betting on surviving long enough and squeezing the global economy hard enough to realise that goal.

Very interesting piece by Vali Nasr on what Iran wants.
www.ft.com/content/93b7...

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1 day ago
"He is allowing the hawks to believe the campaign continues, wants markets to believe the war might end soon and his base to believe escalation will be limited," the Trump adviser said.

A perfect one-sentence summary of Donald Trump’s current Iran strategy.
www.reuters.com/world/us/wit...

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1 day ago
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Trump administration underestimated Iran war’s impact on Strait of Hormuz | CNN Politics The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, accord...

This is incredible www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/p...

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2 days ago
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US intervention in oil futures would be ‘biblical disaster’, CME warns Terry Duffy says any attempt by the government to lower prices using derivatives market would erode confidence

Don’t encourage them…
www.ft.com/content/8236...

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2 days ago
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Lizardman’s Constant Is 4% Beware of Phantom Lizardmen I have only done a little bit of social science research, but it was enough to make me hate people. One study I helped with analyzed whether people from different countr…

slatestarcodex.com/2013/04/12/n...

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2 days ago
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Citi, StanChart evacuate Dubai offices, HSBC closes Qatar branches as fears grow Citigroup and Standard Chartered have begun evacuating their Dubai offices, telling staff ‌to work from home instead, sources said on Wednesday, as banks step up precautions after Iran threatened Gulf...

New verb conjugation for bankers in the Gulf:

I am working from home
You have evacuated your office
They have fled the region
www.reuters.com/world/middle...

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3 days ago

It's darkly funny that the combination of Trump's Truth Social posts and @reuters.com newswire snaps has turned this conflict into a war of ALL-CAPS STATEMENTS

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3 days ago

now do Transport for London

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3 days ago

I assume because 13*28 = 364

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3 days ago
The $5 billion figure refers to GAAP revenue generated ​from 2023 through to December 2025, a person familiar with the matter told Breakingviews; the $19 billion ⁠is an extrapolation. Anthropic defines “run-rate revenue” in two parts. Use the last 28 days of sales from customers charged on a ​consumption basis and multiply it by 13. Then, multiply the monthly subscription take by 12, and add the two together.
These snapshots are ​inexact, capturing or missing sudden consumption spikes or dips. It helps explain how $14 billion can become $19 billion within weeks.

How do startups like Anthropic calculate their often-quoted "run-rate revenue" figures? The answer, via @karenkkwok.bsky.social, is even more convoluted than I expected.
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...

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3 days ago
NEW LEADER MAY HAVE BEEN WOUNDED IN STRIKE
Though an influential backroom operator for decades spent running his father's office, Mojtaba Khamenei remains an obscure figure to many Iranians and may have been wounded in the U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father.
A state television anchor appeared to confirm widespread rumours Khamenei was hurt, describing him as a "janbaz", or "wounded veteran" of the Ramadan War, as Iran calls the current conflict. Reuters has not been able to confirm his condition.

👀 www.reuters.com/world/middle...

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4 days ago

no way to run the world's largest economy

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4 days ago
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT REMOVES POST ABOUT NAVY ESCORTING OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

#FFS

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4 days ago
10 Mar 2026 17:21:34 - U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: U.S. NAVY SUCCESSFULLY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO ENSURE OIL REMAINS FLOWING TO GLOBAL MARKETS

Update: not so closed after all

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4 days ago
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY CHRIS WRIGHT: U.S. NAVY SUCCESSFULLY ESCORTED AN OIL TANKER THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TO ENSURE OIL REMAINS FLOWING TO GLOBAL MARKETS

And this I guess

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4 days ago

Kind of obvious, but oil traders believe the SoH will reopen soon. And the Trump administration may do some other things to ease pressure on the market - lifting Russian sanctions, etc.

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4 days ago
Line chart of Brent crude oil price

Thursday: "I can't believe the Strait of Hormuz is closed and oil is less than $90 a barrel."
Tuesday: "I can't believe the Strait of Hormuz is still closed and oil is back below $90 a barrel."

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4 days ago
Tweet by Kwasi Kwarteng. We are delighted to welcome @Nigel_Farage and @blockchain as strategic investors in Stack. Nigel's long-standing support for British business and his belief that Bitcoin will play an expanding role in global finance align closely with our vision.

I had to double check this was real. The former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer plugging his crypto vehicle. So very credAble.

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4 days ago
Screengrab of podcast

🔊New episode of THE BIG VIEW🎧: It's nearly a year since Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff war. What have we learned about trade? I talked to Simon Evenett, Professor at IMD Business School, about the surprises of the past year and the shocks still to come. podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/d...

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4 days ago
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🎧 The year since Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff war has produced many surprises.

In this episode of The Big View, @petertl.bsky.social and IMD’s Simon Evenett discuss why dire forecasts fizzled, how China levies fell to 26% — and why a larger jolt looms.

Full episode 👉 reut.rs/4uq517C

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4 days ago
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Iran bets on endurance, energy disruption to outlast US, Israel Iran's strategy is stark: Unleash drones and missiles, cut vital energy routes and jolt markets.

“U.S. officials say a large share of Iran’s arsenal has already been destroyed, but regional sources say Tehran may still retain more than half its pre-war stockpile. If that estimate holds, Iran could keep launching missiles for several ‌more weeks.” www.reuters.com/world/middle...

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5 days ago
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