Peter Thal Larsen

01 Mar 2026 14:50:19 - U.S. SAYS THREE U.S. SERVICE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN KILLED IN ACTION AS PART OF IRAN OPERATION -CENTCOM Oil jumps 10% on Iran conflict and could spike to $100 a barrel, analysts say

Two consecutive @Reuters headlines just now. How long before Donald Trump has to change course?

Breakingviews - Trump’s new Iran attack opens up big global risks Fresh US and Israeli strikes attempted to remove Tehran’s leaders, rather than force a nuclear deal. Yet the president’s hope that Iranians will finish the job could backfire. The danger is retaliation and turmoil in the Gulf, and oil-fuelled inflation spikes further afield.

From Breakingviews - Breakingviews - Trump’s new Iran attack opens up big global risks reut.rs/4r6IKbL

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say In the run-up to the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Saturday, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), two sources briefed on the intelligence said.

Exclusive: Prior to Iran attacks, CIA assessed Khamenei would be replaced by hardline IRGC elements if killed, sources say reut.rs/4l9SCAs

Get Your War On cartoon

Having flashbacks to the last time

In subscribers' inboxes now

Thinking of the expat I spoke to the other day who told me he had moved from London to Dubai "to feel safe".

Live: Israel and US launch strikes on Iran as Trump confirms 'major combat operations' Israel said it launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran, pushing the Middle East into a renewed military confrontation and further dimming hopes for a diplomatic solution to Tehran's long-running nu...

Follow all the @reuters.com coverage here: www.reuters.com/world/iran-c...

Trump says US carrying out 'major combat operations' in Iran an hour ago We have now hear from U.S. President Donald Trump. In a video posted on social media, he said: "A short time ago the U.S. military began major combat operations in Iran." "Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime." Iran "can never have a nuclear weapon." "We sought repeatedly to make a deal." Iran "attempted to rebuild their nuclear programme." Iran is developing long range missiles that threaten the U.S. and others." "We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground." "We’re going to annihilate their navy." "We will ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon."

I must have missed the bit where Congress authorised this

I spent yesterday afternoon teaching my students about the Trump AI strategy that Dean largely wrote, with additional material from his substack. This is a remarkable statement for him to make.

Dario Amodei is the surprise new favourite
bsky.app/profile/pete...

Like weaponised interdependence, but against your own companies

The Week in Breakingviews Insights from Reuters global financial commentary team By Peter Thal Larsen, Global Editor

Just signed off on a brand new edition of The Week in Breakingviews. Packed with insights on the fight for Warner Brothers, US tariffs, water-guzzling data centres, and much more from the @breakingviews.reuters.com team. Click here to get it in your inbox tomorrow:
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Braddick to take the helm at the UK’s banking watchdog Katharine Braddick CB appointed as the next Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation at the Bank of England and Chief Executive of the Prudential Regulation Authority, succeeding Sam Woods when his t...

Not a comment on Katherine Braddick's experience or track record, but for much of the past two decades it would have been hard to imagine that the UK's next top bank regulator would be someone working at Barclays.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2026/fe...

The firms are using repo-like loans from one particular investment bank to mask debt, the letter says.

👀

Some private credit firms are using accounting tools to mask leverage, Rubric Capital tells investors Some private credit firms that borrow from retail investors may be embellishing their financial health, Rubric Capital, a $3 billion hedge fund founded by a former Point72 star manager, warned its bac...

For those of you collecting echoes of 2007-08, here's another one....
www.reuters.com/sustainabili...

I fear you've missed the point. The question here is whether AI has affected employment so far, as some have suggested, not whether it will do so in future. And the argument is simply that there are other factors which explain the slowdown.

Confusing AI with Fed Hikes - Apollo Academy Economic research institutions have identified sectors and occupations that are likely to be vulnerable to AI, see for example here,...

A brief but brutal debunking of the AI job apocalypse
www.apolloacademy.com/confusing-ai...

CEO of World Economic Forum quits after Epstein ties scrutinised The president and CEO of the World Economic Forum, Borge Brende, said he was stepping down, a few weeks after the forum launched an independent investigation into his relationship with sex offender Je...

Update: And he's gone.
www.reuters.com/world/ceo-wo...

Trump’s tariff upset has plenty of upside: podcast The US may be on the hook for $175 bln worth of refunds after the Supreme Court deemed the president’s tariffs illegal. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the opportunities fo...

🔊 The US may be on the hook for $175 billion worth of refunds after the Supreme Court deemed Trump's tariffs illegal. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss what’s likely to come next reut.rs/4cPGan3

Documents, foreign law-enforcement officials and the people familiar with Binance’s operations said the same conduct that broke the sanctions and anti-money-laundering laws has persisted at the exchange. And the law-enforcement officials said that, over the past year, Binance has started cooperating far less with their requests to obtain financial information about its hundreds of millions of users, such as by declining to provide customer details without a court order, or insisting requests are submitted via formal channels that can take months. Internal reports submitted by Binance’s financial-crime investigations team connected accounts registered to Chinese clients to digital wallets that U.S. and Israeli authorities said were used by Iran to finance its proxies. In total, $1.7 billion flowed over 2024 and 2025 from the accounts, which funded Iran-backed groups including Yemen’s Houthi militants. The investigations team was composed of experts in sanctions and counterterrorist financing, many put in place as part of Binance’s pledges to reform.

I realise the Trump administration seems relaxed about enforcing sanctions and money-laundering rules, but it's still amazing that the crypto firm whose founder was jailed and then pardoned by Trump is still helping the Iranians move money around.
www.wsj.com/finance/curr...

Pharma companies submit new drugs for extensive testing before they are used by humans. Aviation regulators will ground an entire fleet of aircraft until a problem is fixed. Yet this multi hundred-billion dollar industry is just letting employees fiddle around until something goes seriously wrong.

"The odds of the Supreme People's Court of the People's Republic of China scotching levies on U.S. goods are effectively nil." 😂

Breakingviews - The Week in Breakingviews: When activists attack Welcome back! The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. Does this mean the global trade war is over? Let us know what you think. If this newsletter was forward...

The Week in Breakingviews: When activists attack www.reuters.com/commentary/b... @petertl.bsky.social

The Supreme Court Ruling Was Bad for Business ... at least for a little while

*taps mic*

It pains me to announce that I may have generated a "hot take"

mostfavourednation.substack.com/p/the-suprem...

Alan Partridge

My compatriots are really very good at skating 🇳🇱

Based on a thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American decision on Tariffs issued yesterday, after MANY months of contemplation, by the United States Supreme Court, please let this statement serve to represent that I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been “ripping” the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level. During the next short number of months, the Trump Administration will determine and issue the new and legally permissible Tariffs, which will continue our extraordinarily successful process of Making America Great Again - GREATER THAN EVER BEFORE!!! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Trump raises the Section 122 worldwide tariff on everyone to 15% (for 5 months). I guess he needs the money.

The Week in Breakingviews Insights from Reuters global financial commentary team   Image Image Image Image By Peter Thal Larsen, Global Editor Welcome back! The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. Does this mean the global trade war is over? Let us know what you think. If this newsletter was forwarded to you, sign up here to get it in your inbox every weekend. Note: Links in this newsletter require a Breakingviews subscription. To sign up for a free trial, click here. Opening line “‘The falcon cannot hear the falconer,’ William Butler Yeats wrote at the beginning of ‘The Second Coming’. In the turbulent world of private credit, it seems Blue Owl can no longer hear the owler.” Read more: Blue Owl picks private credit’s path of pain.

The latest edition of The Week in Breakingviews is in subscribers‘ inboxes, with thoughts on an outbreak of shareholder activism, the defence company growing faster than the Mag 7, and the demise of vaccines. If you’re not already receiving it, sign up for free here:
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Why would you doubt the accuracy of a quarterly attestation from a company based in El Salvador? 😉

Chart of Tether’s equity ratio

For all the talk of cryptocurrencies going mainstream, this is the wobbly pillar on which the edifice rests: Tether’s stablecoin has a shrinking cash buffer and has parked more of its assets in bitcoin, gold and other illiquid investments. Via @liamproud.bsky.social
www.reuters.com/commentary/b...