Michael McKee

Fed musical chairs scenario:
Kugler seat is the only certain vacancy for Trump to name a new chair who isn't already on the Board of Governors.
Which means the markets will assume whomever is nominated is the chair-in-waiting.
Although he could still elevate Waller or Bowman. So...🤷‍♂️

Kevin Hassett somehow suggests the Fed votes at July's policy meeting were "along party lines."
Powell, Bowman, Waller were appointed by Trump.

Here's what I don't understand:
On Nov 1, 2024, five days before Election Day, BLS said only 12,000 jobs were created in October.
BLS announced an 818,000 reduction in the annual jobs numbers on Aug 21, not “days after the election.”
Why didn't any pool reporter say “I’m sorry, sir, you're wrong?”

Actually, to your very last point, anyone nominated to be a Fed governor must be confirmed by the Senate. It's highly unlikely he would be able to appoint someone to serve only a part of Kugler's remaining term.

It has been the honor of my life to serve as Commissioner of BLS alongside the many dedicated civil servants tasked with measuring a vast and dynamic economy. It is vital and important work and I thank them for their service to this nation.

YouTube video by Bloomberg Podcasts Fed Governor Kugler to Resign

My take on the Kugler resignation and what happens next, on Bloomberg Radio's "Businessweek" show with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec.
youtube.com/watch?v=UmCB...

Trump gaslighting America.
Headlines from her last public comment on July 17:
*FED’S KUGLER:: APPROPRIATE TO HOLD RATES STEADY FOR SOME TIME
*KUGLER: MANY REASONS TO EXPECT LARGER TARIFF IMPACT COMING
*KUGLER: EXPECT ADDITIONAL PRICE INCREASES LATER IN THE YEAR

So @colbylsmith.bsky.social @nicktimiraos.bsky.social @bencasselman.bsky.social
@hpschneider.bsky.social @steveliesman.bsky.social
How was everyone's summer Friday?

Failure to understand these concepts can cause people to think the numbers are manipulated, leading to conspiracy theories and all kinds of bad reactions like... 4/4

The survey is also subject to 'non-sampling error' - unsampled or incomplete data on a sector. That's why the report is revised twice after release: more data come in from more companies. And once a year, the survey data are benchmarked against newly available tax data, and revised again. 3/4

So there is a 90% chance today's number is between - 63,000 and +209,000. There was a 90% chance that June's initially reported 147,000 jobs was between 11,000 and 283,000. So the revision to 14,000 is statistically valid. 2/4

The BLS employment report can be subject to 'sampling error' - the chance the survey sample doesn't match the characteristics of the total population. The employment survey has a confidence interval of 90%. That means there is a 90% chance the number is on the order of plus or minus 136,000. 1/4

Total ignorance. Or a lie. BLS revised the jobs numbers down on August 21, 2024, three months before the election.

This is pretty simple: the BLS is not cooking the books. Period. Full stop.
That's the tweet.

*TRUMP: JOBS NUMBERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY A BIDEN APPOINTEE
*TRUMP: DIRECTED MY TEAM TO FIRE THIS BIDEN POLITICAL APPOINTEE

This is outrageous. Ridiculous.

I have a very hard time imagining Kennedy and Khrushchev facing off over Cuba on social media.

Trump fomenting revolution:

*Heard and Macdonald Islands are uninhabited, except by penguins.

Trump appears to have gone soft! While it's not exactly clear, his new trade executive order has NO TARIFF ON PENGUINS!
Heard and Macdonald Islands* are not listed in Annex 1. All other "trading partners" are subject to a 10% tariff, but the penguins can easily avoid that by not selling to the US.

Live Q&A: When Will the Fed Cut Rates? Trump Pressure Builds as Markets Wait Bloomberg journalists answer your questions about what economic signals or Trump actions could prompt the Fed to lower rates in September.

www.bloomberg.com/sessions/202...

The only surprise is that it took him so long to tweet.
"It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."
--Wm Shakespeare, Macbeth

Hey!

So follow the data, see what companies say about their plans on earnings calls, and listen to FOMC members, particularly when we get closer to the next meeting. And don't bet on Fed funds futures. 6/6

What Powell did today was loosen the market’s grip on a September cut. He wasn't hawkish or dovish. A cut might be the right thing to do. Might not. Presuming a rate cut distorts markets and influences planning. 5/6

What should they do September 17? Seven weeks, two jobs reports, two CPI and PPI reports, one more PCE, and seven jobless claims. They have no idea what the economy will look like then (and neither do Trump, Bessent, Hassett, or Miran. Or you, for that matter). 4/6

At the same time, the economy has clearly slowed. Though so far, that has not been reflected in the labor market. Unemployment likely will rise, but how fast? If we get to or above 4.5% by September, it would be hard not to cut rates. 3/6

Meanwhile, more companies are announcing they will raise prices to offset tariffs. There will be price effects. But they will take some months to appear. There’s a good chance prices will be rising, and at a faster pace, by September. Would be hard to cut rates with inflation going up. 2/6

Long 🧵Courtesy LGA ground stop, here’s my @federalreserve analysis:
we/they have seen some tariff inflation pass throughs. But Trump has delayed most of the tariffs until at least Friday, and tariffs on China even longer. And he continues to add new ones (copper today).
1/6

50

The talks were described as "candid." In diplomatic-speak, candid means "Fck you. Fck you, too."