Paul Krugman

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Claude at war

About Anthropic, Iran, and dumbing down www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjUo...

The Economics of Technological Change What history and models can (and can’t) tell us about AI

@pkrugman.bsky.social at his most trenchant. The Economics of Technological Change: What history and models can (and can’t) tell us about AI open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

Now that the Supremes have humiliated Trump, it’s time to invade the Falkland Islands, I mean, bomb Iran.

YouTube video by Paul Krugman no news is bad news

Larry Ellison is buying CNN. That’s a disaster www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEwy...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman No check in the mail

New video on why you won’t receive a tariff check www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEDA...

Europe v America: Who’s Really Winning? A wonkish but important discussion

About growth in Europe and the US; it’s not the story you’ve heard open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

We’re pleased to announce a $10 million gift from the James M. and Cathleen D. Stone Foundation, which supports the work of @stone-lis.bsky.social www.gc.cuny.edu/news/10-mill... @cuny.edu

Attack of the Zombie Tariffs A brain is a terrible thing to have eaten

Trump loves tariffs but the economy doesn't paulkrugman.substack.com/p/attack-of-...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman So what is a balance of payments deficit, anyway?

What is a balance-of-payments deficit? I should know, but I don't. Nobody does. www.youtube.com/watch?v=VY6d...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Trump loses his tariff power

An update: We're now starting to see how much Trump lost with the tariff ruling www.youtube.com/watch?v=El0K...

Tariff Policy by the Numbers Understanding what just happened and what can come next

Section 232, Section 122, IEEPA and all that paulkrugman.substack.com/p/tariff-pol...

This wasn't an apology, or a real retraction. It was basically "I'm sorry you feel that way."

Now that the Supremes have humiliated Trump, it’s time to invade the Falkland Islands, I mean, bomb Iran.

New Jersey. You got a problem with that?

YouTube video by Paul Krugman IEEPA! IEEPA! IEEPA!

IEEPA! IEEPA! IEEPA! www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEBd...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Three disappointing numbers

Three disappointing numbers: the trade deficit, GDP growth, and the Fed's preferred measure of inflation won't make Trump happy www.youtube.com/watch?v=47oa...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Wag the dogs of war

Another short video, about the economics of possible war with Iran www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VhI...

YouTube video by Paul Krugman Now Trumpists are menacing economists

Something new: A short video responding to the Trump administration saying that economists whose studies aren’t what they want to hear should be “disciplined” www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzZd...

Every Trump official is fundamentally a thug

How the Kakistocracy Became a Quackistocracy Corruption is a germ’s best friend

To understand the catastrophic turn in U.S. health policy, follow the money paulkrugman.substack.com/p/how-the-ka...

I find the lack of criticism of Warsh, especially from the New Keynesian macroeconomists, bizarre. There are hints of criticism from former Fed officials: it is not a compliment to have people say you are confused about your signature policy proposal. I hope I am wrong in my concerns.

Sometimes you wonder. Bloomberg this morning saying that you can't both believe that AI is a big deal and that we're in a bubble. But you absolutely can! That's exactly the story of the tech bubble of the 90s, major economic impact but not big profits. Sigh.

When Bereleh and Faygel Krugman emigrated from Belarus to New York, which was mostly Catholic and Jewish in 1920, I don't think they did for the Scots (with one t) Irish culture

This also implies that fears of a lot of tariff-induced inflation still in the pipeline are exaggerated. Most of the tariff hit to inflation has already happened 4/

That's small enough to be obscured in aggregate data by other factors, including data distortions from the government shutdown. If you focus in on prices tariffs should affect, the impact is clear. And the overall effect is close to what models predict 3/

As I explain, the evidence that foreigners *aren't* paying is rock solid. To understand the CPI, the key point is that between TACO and carve-outs, you would only expect a moderate impact of the tariffs — ~1 percent — on consumer prices 2/

Who Is Paying the Trump Tariffs? A wonkish guide for the confused

New post about tariffs. Last week two reports found that foreigners have borne very little of the cost. But the CPI came in somewhat soft. Is there a contradiction? As I explain, no.

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/who-is-pay...

OK, claiming property rights in a new term (I think). I just did a Substack live with Catherine Rampell, in which she suggested that young men may be pivoting from Bitcoin to prediction markets. And it just popped into my head: the Testosterone Trade.

A Wonkish Note on Tariffs and Inflation There isn’t really a puzzle here

An experiment: A wonkish post that isn't emailed out to subscribers

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-wonkish-...

Either way, you might have thought that people who assured us that Kevin Hassett was a good choice for CEA chair and Scott Bessent would be the adult in the room would hit pause before doing it again. But I guess not 4/