Dave Osmond

If it proves to be cheap per kWh, then this is perfect for intra-week storage.
It might halve the amount of 'other', but unlikely to eliminate it. See the more or less storage sensitivity in the Reneweconomy article for how extra storage reduces 'other'.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 233 to 236. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- well above average demand (106% of long-term average)
- well above average wind (116%)
- average solar (99%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 236 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

Also down signficantly, though proportionally not quite as much.
See the lower chart here: explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?...

Australia Electricity Emissions Update:
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 513 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 25% since 2020, down 38% since 2015
Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation. Down 28% since 2020, 67% since 2015)

You may have already seen this, but there is a huge amount of both utility & residential storage coming online over the rest of this decade. Most is committed. It will be interesting to see if they're less profitable than forecast, and if we see a dramatic reduction in new investment after this wave

All the utility & residential batteries should dramatically reduce the afternoon wholesale price peak.
But for most people, the benefit of batteries is to reduce consumption of grid electricity at 30-40c/kWh, and instead use solar generation that would otherwise be exported for ~4c/kWh

Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 232 to 235. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- extreme above average demand (112% of long-term average)
- below average wind (90%)
- well above average solar (123%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 235 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

The year is 2026 - climate impacts are reaping damage across our country.

The South Australian government meanwhile is striking new 200PJ off take agreements with the gas industry.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 231 to 234. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- well above average demand (107% of long-term average)
- extreme above average wind (131%)
- above average solar (112%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 234 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

I've been cranking numbers. Full year 2025, it looks like nuclear power just about kept its nose ahead of wind and solar. But in H2 2025, while wind didn't quite overtake nuclear, solar did. In 2026 nuclear will drop to third place in the production of clean electricity.

ENERGY REPORTING IS BROKEN!

6 steps to reframe energy reporting in the Age of Electricity...

New analysis from @ember-energy.org Kingsmill Bond team and @mliebreich.bsky.social

1/6🧵

we need to talk about that Ring Super Bowl ad

Bonus slide:
Note very poor wind in the last few nights, requiring ~240 MW of 'Other' on the night of Feb 9.
First time the simulation has needed 'Other' since 2 Sep 2025.

Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (5/6)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
@OpenNEM
, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 230 to 233. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- extreme above average demand (112% of long-term average)
- well below average wind (72%)
- well above average solar (129%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.9% RE
Last 233 weeks: 98.6% RE (1/5)