Dave Osmond

By the end of the decade the NEM will pretty much have the 24GW/120GWh of storage that I assume in my weekly simulation.
But it will still need ~3x more wind & PV than we currently have.
That's the key hold up.

40 GWh of batteries could almost completely destroy intra-day price variability.
However, in a few more years another ~50 GWh/d of solar will come online.
This should keep prices low in the middle of the day.
But the evening peak should be much flatter & extend over the night.

Lots of people under-estimate the amount of batteries soon to come online on Australia's NEM.
Within a few years the NEM will have 15GW/40GWh of utility battery storage.
Plus a similar amount of residential batteries.
40GWh is sufficient to completely flatten these demand profiles
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Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 234 to 237. It was 99.9% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- above average demand (105% of long-term average)
- well below average wind (80%)
- above average solar (106%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 99.6% RE
Last 237 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

Here's some updated info on the cost of the 100% renewable scheme, and also showing the average NSW wholesale electricity price.
The cost of the scheme tends to go negative when electricity prices spike.
Renewable Power Purchase agreements (PPAs) are a wonderful hedge against volatile fossil prices!

Low cost wind and solar protect ACT consumers from bill shock once again ACT consumers face minimum rise in electricity bills thanks to its 100 pct renewable policy as households in other states blown away by soaring costs of fossil fuels.

Reneweconomy wrote about this here:
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reneweconomy.com.au/low-cost-win...

Too early to tell if the current soaring fossil fuel prices will lead to higher electricity prices in Australia.
But if they do, let's remember that the one place in Australia's NEM that managed to avoid massive electricity prices rises was the ACT, thanks to its 100% renewable target
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If there was ever a moment for Australia’s shift to renewables and EVs, this is it Yes, Australia needs fuel. But the Middle East war also shows the necessity of setting ourselves up for the future

A Clear Air column banging on about some today/tomorrow issues.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Low cost wind and solar protect ACT consumers from bill shock once again ACT consumers face minimum rise in electricity bills thanks to its 100 pct renewable policy as households in other states blown away by soaring costs of fossil fuels.

Additional info in this article: reneweconomy.com.au/low-cost-win...

Too early to say if electricity prices will also spike.
But if they do, then we should learn from when that last happened after Russia invaded Ukraine. Retail electricity prices soared in every NEM state except the ACT thanks to its 100% renewable target.
www.icrc.act.gov.au/__data/asset...

If it proves to be cheap per kWh, then this is perfect for intra-week storage.
It might halve the amount of 'other', but unlikely to eliminate it. See the more or less storage sensitivity in the Reneweconomy article for how extra storage reduces 'other'.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 233 to 236. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- well above average demand (106% of long-term average)
- well above average wind (116%)
- average solar (99%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100% RE
Last 236 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

Also down signficantly, though proportionally not quite as much.
See the lower chart here: explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/nem/?...

Australia Electricity Emissions Update:
Average NEM emission intensity over last 12 months: 513 kg CO2-e/MWh. Down 25% since 2020, down 38% since 2015
Sth Australia reductions leading the way thanks to its increase in wind & solar generation. Down 28% since 2020, 67% since 2015)

You may have already seen this, but there is a huge amount of both utility & residential storage coming online over the rest of this decade. Most is committed. It will be interesting to see if they're less profitable than forecast, and if we see a dramatic reduction in new investment after this wave

All the utility & residential batteries should dramatically reduce the afternoon wholesale price peak.
But for most people, the benefit of batteries is to reduce consumption of grid electricity at 30-40c/kWh, and instead use solar generation that would otherwise be exported for ~4c/kWh

Near 100 pct renewable electricity for Australia’s main grid is achievable and affordable: Year 4 update Very close to 100% renewable electricity is feasible for Australia’s main grid at reasonable cost using just several hours of storage. Four years of data proves this is so.

The following article contains many more details, assumptions & FAQs about my simulation, including what is ‘Other’, estimates of cost ($126/MWh), emissions, required capacity, scale factors, analysis of the most challenging days & much more (end)
reneweconomy.com.au/near-100-pct...

The simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from
OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (4/5)

Here is the simulation from weeks 232 to 235. It was 100.0% renewable (3/5)

Last week had:
- extreme above average demand (112% of long-term average)
- below average wind (90%)
- well above average solar (123%) (2/5)

Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with 24GW/120GWh of storage (5 hrs at av demand)
Results:
Last week: 100.0% RE
Last 235 weeks: 98.7% RE (1/5)

The year is 2026 - climate impacts are reaping damage across our country.

The South Australian government meanwhile is striking new 200PJ off take agreements with the gas industry.