Emanuel Deutschmann (@deutschmann) — Bluesky Profile

2 weeks ago

Dieses Heizungsgesetz ist vielleicht der erste Fall, in dem eine Bundesregierung nicht durch Nicht-Handeln, sondern durch bewusstes Handeln Klimaneutralität als Ziel faktisch aufgibt. Es wird noch etwas dauern, bis das unabweisbar wird, aber wir laufen damit absehbar in eine Verfassungskrise.

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1 month ago

Die Exponentialgesellschaft - Buchvorstellung und Diskussion YouTube video by Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung

Exponentielle Dynamiken prägen Politik, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 📈
Über Wachstum, Beschleunigung und ihre politischen Folgen haben wir gestern diskutiert – mit Josefa Kny und @deutschmann.bsky.social
Jetzt die Aufzeichnung ansehen:
▶️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZxy...

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1 month ago

Heute um 18 Uhr in Berlin, ich freue mich darauf.

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1 month ago

UK loses measles elimination status Decision made after outbreaks in 2024, when there were nearly 3,000 cases in England and Wales.

Bürger:innen glauben #Desinformation und lehnen lebensrettende Impfungen ab. Die UK 🇬🇧 hat nun ihren Status als masernfreies Land verloren. Das Leid und Elend, das mit moderner Medizin vermeidbar wäre, wird viele Leben zerstören. Willkommen zurück im Mittelalter.
www.bbc.com/news/article...

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1 month ago

A life in peer review.

stuartjames1990.github.io/peer-review/

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1 month ago

Ich freue mich sehr darauf, am 11. Februar mit Petra Pinzler (Die ZEIT) und Josefa Kny (Zukunftsforscherin) in Berlin über mein @suhrkamp.de-Buch Die #Exponentialgesellschaft zu sprechen. Schaut gerne vorbei, vor Ort oder live auf Youtube!

Vielen Dank, @boell.de für die Organisation!

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1 month ago

Wow! Amsterdam hat heute als 1. Hauptstadt der Welt ein Werbeverbot von Fleisch & klimaschädliche Produkte im öffentl. Raum beschlossen. Ab Mai dürfen Burger, Kreuzfahrten, Dieselautos oder Flugreisen nicht mehr beworben werden. Ein tolles Zeichen. Was spricht dagegen das auch in 🇩🇪 einzuführen?

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2 months ago

Breaking: Die EU-Kommission gibt dem Druck von Merz nach und schafft de facto das Verbrenner-Aus 2035 ab. Jahrelang wurde dafür gekämpft: Jetzt wird es zerstört. Der Klimaschutz im größten Binnenmarkt der Welt wird damit enorm geschwächt und Schuld ist allen Ernstes Deutschland. So frustrierend 😡

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2 months ago

Is this exponential growth already? AI generated sites have seemingly grown exponentially. Living in an exponential society :)

#exponentialgrowth #aislop

@deutschmann.bsky.social

originality.ai/ai-content-i...

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3 months ago

Travelers visiting the United States from countries like Britain, France, Germany and South Korea could soon have to undergo a review of up to five years of their social media history, according to a proposal filed on Tuesday by U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

The change would affect visitors eligible for the visa waiver program, which allows people from 42 countries to travel to the United States for up to 90 days without a visa as long as they first obtain electronic travel authorization.

In a document filed on Tuesday in the Federal Register, C.B.P. said it plans to ask applicants for a long list of personal data including social media, email addresses from the last decade, and the names, birth dates, places of residence and birthplaces of parents, spouses, siblings and children.

Under the current system, applicants from visa waiver countries must enroll in the Electronic System for Travel Authorization program. They pay $40 and submit an email address, home address, phone number and emergency contact information. The authorization is good for two years.

This is INSANE www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...

and these are our closest allies!

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3 months ago

Covid-19 am 3.12.25: ↗️↗️😢😢

R_Berichte (FT-korr)↗️1,15, Verdopplungszeit 20 Tage
R_Meldungen (adj.)↗️1,17, Verdopplungszeit 18 Tage
R_Hospitalisierung ↗️1,08, NA

Inkl. DZF 70:
Fälle (7T-M): ~82.000
Inzidenz: ~680 (~520)

Infiziert: 1 von ~103

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3 months ago

4 Books and a straw OSB on a chest.
1. STRAWBALE BUILDING REDIFINED
2. FORM FOLLOWS FUEL
3. Building for People
4. Die Expontialgesellschaft

Fav books '25
No particular order, just bangers, no prisoners taken.
* Straw Bale Building Redefined
strawbuildingbooks.com
* Form Follows Fuel
@barnabascalder.bsky.social @florianurban.bsky.social
* Building for People
@holz-bau.bsky.social
* Die Exponentialgesellschaft
@deutschmann.bsky.social

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3 months ago

I have no political power so all I can do is keep reminding everyone, particularly those in privileged countries who never have to worry about Visa applications, how horrid the Global Visa system is for poorer countries - in particular any African country. It's just apartheid on a global scale.

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3 months ago

Migrant Electoral Rights (MER) New Data from 165 Countries and Six Decades - Globalcit Sebastian Umpierrez de Reguero, Klaudia Wegschaider and Rainer Bauböck Migrant Electoral Rights (MER) New Data from 165 Countries and Six Decades, Nature, 2025. Read More ...

Want to know more about the MER dataset 🤔

Read Sebastian Umpierrez de Reguero, Klaudia Wegschaider and Rainer Bauböcks explain in their new publication ⚡

MER maps migrant voting and candidacy rights in 165 countries across 60 years 🗳️🌍📊

⚡ tinyurl.com/mtm2rp53

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3 months ago

Demokratie: Wenn die Rechte mitregiert, wird sie nicht geschwächt – im Gegenteil Eine Untersuchung von 57 Ländern zeigt: Wenn die Rechte in Verantwortung kommt, gewinnt sie dazu. Daraus lässt sich für Deutschland lernen.

📣 New op-ed in Süddeutsche Zeitung: What the data say about the “Brandmauer”

I summarize key findings from a study with @anninahermes.bsky.social across 57 democracies

➡️ Far-right parties don’t get weaker in government, they get stronger (~6 points by the next election)

tinyurl.com/4j6jaud2

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3 months ago

I hope the methods section clarifies how we got the data without blocking the system (at the cost of not being able to cover all countries/embassies).

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3 months ago

(Unfortunately, I don't have time to build a scatter plot with labels right now, but you should be able to infer the countries from Figure 4)

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3 months ago

Quick answer: The correlation remains signficant.

But perhaps more importantly, I think it's important to keep these countries in the picture. The wait times of the people who live there there are part of the global empirical reality, and they are rendered invisible far too often.

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3 months ago

Langes Warten oder gar kein Termin – der Globale Süden wird im deutschen Visasystem deutlich benachteiligt Wie gerecht sind die Chancen auf Termine in deutschen Auslandsvertretungen im weltweiten Vergleich? Eine neue Analyse zeigt, dass Menschen aus ärmeren Ländern deutlich länger auf Visatermine warten mü...

Somehow there seems to be an error in the link to the German version. This one should work: www.dezim-institut.de/presse/press...

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3 months ago

This study is a collaboration with @niklas-harder.bsky.social @alexandra-orlova.bsky.social @dezim-institut.de Lorenzo Gabrielli and Ettore Recchi @mpc-eui.bsky.social @eui-schuman.bsky.social @eui-eu.bsky.social

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3 months ago

For a short summary, please check out the press release:
English: newslettertogo.com/5ghay3wj-42f...
German: www.dezim-institut.de/presse/press...

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3 months ago

We argue for a transparency initative (publish current wait times online) and a fairness & efficiency initative (take measures to shorten and balance wait times globally) to improve the situation for applicants from the Global South and increase satisfaction with the application system.

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3 months ago

- In 44% of requests, no appointment was available

- There chance to find an appointment varied a lot between countries and ranged from almost 0% and 100%

- The wait time varied from 0 to 98 days

-> Enormous differences between German diplomatic missions and the variance is systematic, not random

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3 months ago

Visas are a key tool for states to regulate incoming mobility from abroad, which can have ramifications for the
establishment and perpetuation of global inequalities. In this article, we systematically analyze visa appointment
wait times in German embassies and consulates worldwide. Using computational methods, we collect—and
publish—fine-grained longitudinal data on the closest available appointment dates for various visa types,
covering a total of 16,182 visa appointment requests. Our analysis reveals strong and systematic variance: the
poorer the country a diplomatic mission is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding
an available appointment (which ranges from almost 0 to 100 percent). We also argue that Germany’s system is
quite opaque compared to other established immigration countries such as the U.S. These core findings raise
important questions in light of current debates about global justice, legal pathways to migration, and efforts to
attract foreign talent.

Graph that shows that 44.1 percent of requests did not lead to an appointment that could be selected. For the 55.9 percent where an appointment was available the distribution of wait times follows a steep curve with short wait times in many cases and a long tail of few cases with very long wait times of up to 98 days.

The average wait times and chances to find an appointment varied a lot between Germany's diplomatic missions. The latter range from almost 0 to 100 percent.

This variance is not random. Rather, economic wellbeing (GDP per capita) is a key predictor of wait times and chances of finding an appointment. The poorer the country a German embassy/consulate is based in, the longer the wait time and the lower the chances of finding an appointment.

New #openaccess study

We made >16,000 visa appointment requests at German embassies and consulates worldwide

Key finding: The poorer the country, the longer the wait time and the lower the chance to get an appointment.

"A time panelty for the Global South?"
shorturl.at/ZiAFb

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3 months ago

Absoluter Irrsinn.

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3 months ago

Diese Bundesregierung erhöht den Preis für das Deutschlandticket der Bahn und macht Fliegen wieder billiger (Senkung der Ticketsteuer).

Das ist völlig verrückt.

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3 months ago

Mit Verweis auf "Bürokratieabbau" will das Finanzministerium die Lizenzschranke zur Besteuerung von Tech-Unternehmen abschaffen.

Ersparnis: 10.000 Euro Verwaltungskosten.
Entgangene Steuern: 1.000.000.000 Euro.

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3 months ago

Das ist übrigens Eugenik.

Wenn du einmal beginnst zu selektieren, wem du hilfst und wem nicht, dann gehst du einen Weg, der nicht aufzuhalten ist.

Streeck ist Mediziner und weiß das natürlich. Das macht es so perfide. Vor allem, weil er zwei rhetorische Tricks verwendet:

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4 months ago

‘Google Maps’ for Roman roads reveals vast extent of ancient network A high-resolution digital map nearly doubles the known length of the ancient road network.

This will spark some great papers: an open digital dataset of roads in the Roman Empire
www.nature.com/articles/d41...

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4 months ago

The world’s first trillionaire initiated a move that has left more than half a million people dead, most of whom are children.

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