AGSI

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective - AGSI The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger…

While war might temporarily consolidate elite cohesion and justify heightened repression, it would almost certainly intensify economic dislocation, deepen social hardship, and expose the state to new legitimacy risks, especially if the conflict were protracted. @alfoneh.bsky.social

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

U.S. and Israeli attacks focused on crippling Iran’s longer range missile capabilities, which made Iran resort to shorter range missiles and Kamikaze drones that can be more effective against neighboring Gulf Arab countries. – Mohammed Baharoon agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

This round of the conflict in Iran has raised the economic stakes. Energy markets are poised for significant volatility. Both oil and gas prices are likely to face strong upward pressure over the coming days. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei - AGSI Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

Ultimately, Khamenei fell victim to his resistance to political, economic, and social reforms to bridge the gap between state and a rapidly changing society. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/pol...

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran...

The Lebanese government has moved quickly to try to rein Hezbollah in with unprecedented measures. After an emergency Cabinet meeting March 2, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said the government is instituting a “ban on Hezbollah’s military activities”. @ibishblog.bluesky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Iraq’s at the Epicenter of the Regional Fallout of Confrontation With Iran - AGSI The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has exposed Iraq’s structural fragilities: territorial permeability, economic monoculture, energy dependence, and politically mediated sovereignty.

Unlike wealthier Gulf states, Iraq lacks substantial sovereign buffers to absorb extended export interruptions. If the conflict damages Iran’s energy infrastructure, Iraq would face immediate power shortages. – Abbas Kadhim agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran...

Israel warned that it would spare virtually nothing and target not just Hezbollah assets but Lebanese national infrastructure, including the airport. That has not happened yet. So far, the Israeli strikes have been targeted at Hezbollah and its supporters. @ibishblog.bluesky.social

Caught in the Crosshairs, Gulf Arab Countries Remain Crucial to Peace - AGSI Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for…

Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for limiting the war and bringing it to a quick resolution. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Iraq’s at the Epicenter of the Regional Fallout of Confrontation With Iran - AGSI The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has exposed Iraq’s structural fragilities: territorial permeability, economic monoculture, energy dependence, and politically mediated sovereignty.

Neither Washington nor Tehran seeks war with Baghdad, yet they both view Iraqi territory as operationally relevant. This dynamic erodes Iraqi sovereignty regardless of official intentions. – Abbas Kadhim agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Caught in the Crosshairs, Gulf Arab Countries Remain Crucial to Peace - AGSI Though they were unsuccessful in preventing the current conflict, and, as expected, have been dragged into the U.S.-Israeli confrontation with Iran, Gulf Arab countries remain crucial to hopes for lim...

Caught in the Crosshairs, Gulf Arab Countries Remain Crucial to Peace @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/cau...

Oil Markets Brace for Monday Surge After U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran - AGSI There was a growing war risk premium in the oil markets tied to escalating regional tensions; the shift from shadow confrontation to direct military action changes the calculus.

Oil tanker rates and insurance costs were already moving higher and are likely to escalate further because of the heightened navigational risk in one of the most critical energy corridors. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/oil...

Khamenei, aging and increasingly detached from day-to-day decision making due to the risk of assassination by Israel, came to be widely perceived as personally responsible for the regime’s failures. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/pol...

Iran’s 2025-26 Protests in Perspective - AGSI The erosion of the regime’s legitimacy across broad segments of society, combined with the breadth of the 2025-26 protest coalition, raises the possibility that a new confrontation could trigger…

The Islamic Republic appears caught in a cycle of recurrent crisis: Each wave of protests is broader, longer, and more violent than the last. Unless the regime enacts structural economic and political reforms, Iran is likely to face continued instability. @alfoneh.bsky.social

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

The true center of gravity in this conflict is not the asymmetric cost exchange between cheap offensive Iranian missiles and expensive interceptors but the slow repricing of regional risk. – David B. Roberts agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

With the launch of a second U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, the Saudi-Emirati feud has been set aside. Iranian counterstrikes targeting Gulf territories have united the Gulf Arab states in shared outrage and condemnation of Iran. – Kristin Smith Diwan agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Oil Markets Brace for Monday Surge After U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iran - AGSI There was a growing war risk premium in the oil markets tied to escalating regional tensions; the shift from shadow confrontation to direct military action changes the calculus.

There has not been any confirmed large-scale disruption to Middle Eastern crude production or exports at this stage. However, the market’s sensitivity reflects how thin the buffer for disruption currently is. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/oil...

Caught in the Crossfire: Iraq and the Expanding Regional War - AGSI On March 5, AGSI will host a discussion on Iraq's internal and external challenges in navigating the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Event 3/5: Caught in the Crossfire: Iraq and the Expanding Regional War with Marsin Alshamary, Luay al-Khatteeb, Amb. Douglas Silliman, and Abbas Kadhim. Register today. agsi.org/events/caugh...

Iraq’s at the Epicenter of the Regional Fallout of Confrontation With Iran - AGSI The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has exposed Iraq’s structural fragilities: territorial permeability, economic monoculture, energy dependence, and politically mediated sovereignty.

Militarily, Iraq’s geography places it at the center of the confrontation. The country hosts U.S. forces while maintaining deep political, economic, and security ties with Iran. This dual alignment transforms Iraqi territory into strategic space contested by others. – Abbas Kadhim

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran…

After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran can maintain in the Arab world. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Political Life and Legacy of Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei - AGSI Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in his office in Tehran at age 86, leaving behind a country in ruins and on the verge of civil war and potential disintegration.

In preserving the IRGC as an independent force and financially strengthening it, Khamenei hoped to transform it into his private mercenary army. But, in doing so, he laid the foundation for the IRGC’s economic independence and weakened civilian control over it. @alfoneh.bsky.social

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah - AGSI After decades of tolerating Hezbollah’s warmaking independence, the current crisis has compelled Lebanese leaders to ban its military activities; this project will do much to determine the reach Iran ...

Iran War Provides Decisive Test for Lebanon to Assert Authority Over Hezbollah @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...

After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition - AGSI On March 2, AGSI will host a discussion on the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Video – After the Shock: Implications of the U.S.–Israeli Strikes and Iran’s Leadership Transition with @alfoneh.bsky.social , Mohammed Baharoon, Kristin Diwan, Bader Al-Saif, @ibishblog.bsky.social. agsi.org/events/after...

Iraq’s at the Epicenter of the Regional Fallout of Confrontation With Iran - AGSI The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran has exposed Iraq’s structural fragilities: territorial permeability, economic monoculture, energy dependence, and politically mediated sovereignty.

The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran represents more than a bilateral military escalation. Its repercussions are rapidly radiating across the Gulf and Iraq, drawing in neighboring states not as formal belligerents but as structurally exposed stakeholders. – Abbas Kadhim

War Abroad, Civil War at Home? - AGSI The March 3 edition of the Iran Media Review examines Iranian messaging following the death of the supreme leader and amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli bombardment.

In today's edition of the #IranMediaReview @alfoneh.bsky.social examines Iranian messaging following the death of the supreme leader and amid ongoing U.S. and Israeli bombardment.

War Abroad, Civil War at Home? #IranMediaReview @alfoneh.bsky.social

Having Failed to Prevent a U.S. Attack Against Iran, Gulf Arab Countries Must Watch With Alarm - AGSI Gulf Arab countries urged the United States not to strike Iran, but now that is happening, they are in danger of being sucked into a conflict they cannot control but that will likely reshape their…

The GCC states’ warnings were ignored in 2003, and they have been ignored again in 2026. Now, there is little the Gulf countries can do to shape the outcome of the new conflict, but neither the Trump administration nor the Iranian regime can do that either. @ibishblog.bsky.social

Iranian Regime Fighting for Survival - AGSI Iran is signaling that it will not absorb attacks passively. But whether this strategy ensures the regime’s survival, seals its fate, or accelerates a broader catastrophe will shape the region for…

It remains unclear how the Iranian public will respond to calls from Washington for regime change. Fear of civil war, fragmentation, or foreign occupation may lead even disaffected groups to prioritize stability while the country is under attack. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Having Failed to Prevent a U.S. Attack Against Iran, Gulf Arab Countries Must Watch With Alarm - AGSI Gulf Arab countries urged the United States not to strike Iran, but now that is happening, they are in danger of being sucked into a conflict they cannot control but that will likely reshape their…

Should the Iranian regime change, it will not be mourned by any of the Gulf countries, but the last thing they need is a chaotic, war-torn Iran unleashing instability, violence, and waves of refugees around neighboring states. @ibishblog.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/hav...

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security. – AGSI

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios - AGSI After a massive U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran, AGSI explores scenarios for the future of Iran and implications for broader Gulf security.

Iran War: Gulf Unity, Economic Shocks, and Regime Scenarios – AGSI agsi.org/analysis/ira...