AGSI

Oil Prices Jolted Higher as Gulf Export Route Blocked - AGSI Roughly 20% of global oil supply is now stranded behind the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to reach global markets.

War-risk insurance premiums have also surged. Ships can still theoretically obtain coverage to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, but policies now cost several times more than before the conflict, further discouraging operators from entering the region. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/oil...

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme - AGSI Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Reportedly wounded in a failed assassination attempt March 6, and having lost his parents and wife in an Israeli attack, Mojtaba now occupies a powerful symbolic position as a “living martyr.” @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/und...

Iran War Tests Qatari Mediation and Diplomacy - AGSI Iran’s attacks have perhaps irrevocably damaged Qatari-Iranian bilateral relations and erased the last few years of broader rapprochement efforts between Iran and the GCC states.

The GCC countries have witnessed firsthand how chaotic military operations, such as the U.S. invasion of Iraq can destabilize the region for decades. And they are the ones that have to live right next to whatever leadership rises from the ashes in Tehran. – Anna L. Jacobs

Gulf Arab states have entered the second week of a war, the course of which is being set by others, with insufficient regard to their interests and national welfare. – Kristin Smith Diwan agsi.org/analysis/gul...

The Houthi Conundrum and the War in Iran - AGSI The Houthis have stayed out of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Are they unable, unwilling, or simply biding their time?

If Iran’s strategy is to attempt to outlast the United States by expanding and dragging out the conflict, opening a third front in Yemen would be to its advantage. – Gregory D. Johnsen agsi.org/analysis/the...

Markets Respond to the Iran Conflict - AGSI The early reactions of regional stock markets reflect serious concerns but not full-blown panic despite an unprecedented escalation of the Iran conflict.

Higher oil prices are usually welcomed across Gulf capitals, but there is a costly geopolitical price to pay for this oil price environment. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/analysis/mar...

Oil Prices Jolted Higher as Gulf Export Route Blocked - AGSI Roughly 20% of global oil supply is now stranded behind the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to reach global markets.

Even the decision by eight OPEC+ members to accelerate their planned output increases – raising production quotas by a modest 206,000 b/d – has been rendered largely irrelevant. Additional barrels cannot stabilize markets if they cannot be shipped to customers. – Kate Dourian

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme - AGSI Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Much like his father before him, Mojtaba will require years to consolidate real authority, and he may never achieve it. For the time being, Iran will likely continue to be governed by an informal collective leadership. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/und...

Iran War Tests Qatari Mediation and Diplomacy - AGSI Iran’s attacks have perhaps irrevocably damaged Qatari-Iranian bilateral relations and erased the last few years of broader rapprochement efforts between Iran and the GCC states.

Qatar has maintained ties with rogue states and nonstate actors over many years, often at the request of the United States. These relationships have enabled Qatar to mediate dozens of interstate and intrastate conflicts and support confidence-building measures. – Anna L. Jacobs

Investing Through Uncertainty: Capital, Technology, and the Future of Gulf Markets - AGSI On March 17, AGSI will host a discussion on regional reconstruction after the Iran war.

Event 3/17: Investing Through Uncertainty: Capital, Technology, and the Future of Gulf Markets with Bilal Baloch and Robert Mogielnicki. Register now. agsi.org/events/inves...

The Houthi Conundrum and the War in Iran - AGSI The Houthis have stayed out of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Are they unable, unwilling, or simply biding their time?

Unlike in 2025, when the United States had more limited military objectives of degrading Iran’s nuclear program, this time the conflict is more open ended with the Trump administration contemplating regime change. For Iran, then, this is an existential conflict. – Gregory D. Johnsen

Markets Respond to the Iran Conflict - AGSI The early reactions of regional stock markets reflect serious concerns but not full-blown panic despite an unprecedented escalation of the Iran conflict.

Global energy prices have reflected a clearer picture of increasing pressures coming from the Gulf. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/analysis/mar...

Gulf States Play Defense - AGSI Caught between Iranian strikes and U.S.-Israeli pressure to join the fight, Gulf Arab states strive to maintain their autonomy over decision making, playing defense and preserving the space to…

Caught between Iranian strikes and U.S.-Israeli pressure to join the fight, Gulf Arab states strive to maintain their autonomy over decision making, playing defense and preserving the space to maneuver when the war ends. – Kristin Smith Diwan

Gulf States Play Defense - AGSI Caught between Iranian strikes and U.S.-Israeli pressure to join the fight, Gulf Arab states strive to maintain their autonomy over decision making, playing defense and preserving the space to maneuve...

Gulf States Play Defense – Kristin Smith Diwan agsi.org/analysis/gul...

Oil Prices Jolted Higher as Gulf Export Route Blocked - AGSI Roughly 20% of global oil supply is now stranded behind the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to reach global markets.

Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain rely almost entirely on Gulf terminals that require tankers to transit the strait. With shipping halted, producers have begun to shut down oil fields as storage tanks fill up and export outlets disappear. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/analysis/oil...

The Houthi Conundrum and the War in Iran - AGSI The Houthis have stayed out of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. Are they unable, unwilling, or simply biding their time?

One of the most surprising things to emerge from the first week of the war in Iran is the absence and relative silence of one of the key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.” The Houthis, as they did during the 12-day war in 2025, have stayed on the sideline. – Gregory D. Johnsen

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme - AGSI Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

Leadership selection in Iran has never been purely a matter of principle. It reflects instead the regime’s imperatives: signaling continuity to its loyalists, projecting defiance toward foreign adversaries, and reflecting the internal balance of power. @alfoneh.bsky.social

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Thanks to all who joined today's discussion. The video will be available at the link below in the coming days. agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

There is no doubt that all of the Gulf countries are going to want to continue with their diversification plans going forward. The current crisis will only emphasize the importance of being diversified. – Tim Callen agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Many expatriates have been forced to leave because of business-related reasons and insurance as well. There will be ongoing questions about when they will be able to get back and what impact that will have on operations. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

The Gulf is a key supplier of commodities such as petrochemicals, plastics, aluminum, ethanol, and fertilizers. None of these things are commodities that can be replaced very easily and they’re all critical. @robinmills.bsky.social agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

The longer you shutdown production, the harder it is to bring it back up again. The longer it lasts, we are going to see more volatility. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

The key thing from the Aramco investor call was, if the Strait of Hormuz stays shut, this is a major, major problem for the global energy market and industry. – Tim Callen agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

There’s going to be a lot work ahead for Gulf governments to restore trust in the broader business environment and to encourage foreign investors to pick up where they left off. – Robert Mogielnicki agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have a fair ability to bypass the Strait. Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait, and Iraq have no such ability and are essentially stuck. @robinmills.bsky.social agsi.org/events/shock...

Shockwaves From Iran: Implications for Energy Markets and the Global Economy - AGSI On March 11, AGSI will host a discussion on global energy and economic market volatility.

Nobody knows when oil is going to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, which is effectively shut down. It's the kind of scenario everyone talked about but never really expected to happen. – Kate Dourian agsi.org/events/shock...

Iran War Tests Qatari Mediation and Diplomacy - AGSI Iran’s attacks have perhaps irrevocably damaged Qatari-Iranian bilateral relations and erased the last few years of broader rapprochement efforts between Iran and the GCC states.

Qatar is one of the only states in the world with deep security ties with Washington and a strong working relationship with Iran. – Anna L. Jacobs agsi.org/analysis/ira...

Markets Respond to the Iran Conflict - AGSI The early reactions of regional stock markets reflect serious concerns but not full-blown panic despite an unprecedented escalation of the Iran conflict.

The varied performance across and within indexes relates to a range of factors. Some Gulf Arab countries have been in the crosshairs more than others: The UAE’s Ministry of Defense reported being targeted by 16 ballistic missiles and more than 120 drones March 7. – Robert Mogielnicki

Oil Prices Jolted Higher as Gulf Export Route Blocked - AGSI Roughly 20% of global oil supply is now stranded behind the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, unable to reach global markets.

For the first time in modern history, the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows – has effectively been closed to commercial shipping. Iranian missile and drone attacks have made the passage too dangerous for most tankers.– Kate Dourian

Under Mojtaba, the IRGC Will Reign Supreme - AGSI Iran may still call itself an Islamic Republic. In practice, however, it increasingly resembles a state in which the military governs from behind clerical robes.

In practical terms, the transition may mark the culmination of a long evolution: the transformation of the Islamic Republic from a theocratic system into a military dictatorship, albeit one fronted by a clerical figurehead. @alfoneh.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/und...