Tim Bale

Nerd's Eye View: 11 things you need to know about immigration Digging into the detail and data to separate the noise from the news

NERDS EYE VIEW 💡 Student migration has also soared, as struggling universities have used pricey degrees for foreign students to subsidise flat-lining domestic fees

Read @jonnelledge.bsky.social's 11 things you need to know about immigration 👇

Just arrived.

Good. Now leave that platform.

RIP

Pro move: put yourself at an advantage in conversation by saying: "Oh yes, we've met before!" every time you're introduced to a stranger, without explanation.

This is the correct headline and coverage.

Fined for misleading business practices, lack of transparency and obfuscating data access.

That’s it. #NotCensorship

A declaration of political war The Trump-Vance National Security Strategy is blatantly racist, declares an open intent of interfering in European politics, and is extraordinarily hostile to long-time allies

Spot-on

Reform UK strips council leader of membership over undisclosed X account Party expels Ian Cooper in Staffordshire after historic racist social media posts emerge

The Reform U.K. leader of Staffordshire county council has been expelled from the party because he failed to disclose one of his social media accounts during vetting: www.ft.com/content/3849... Can you guess what the problem with that account turned out to be?

But still doesn’t beat the fact that Cleopatra is closer to us in time than she was to the building of the Great Pyramid.

This seems incredible to read, as it could come straight out of an Orbán 2015-16 speech, but this has actually been a dominant position within the broader U.S. Right for decades. 🧵

The new National Security Strategy is a propaganda document, designed to be widely read. It is also a performative suicide. Hard to think of another great power ever abdicating its influence so quickly and so publicly. It will be worth following the reactions around the world, not just in Europe.

Commiserations, Jack - from me to you 😜

It gets increasingly bizarre to deduct your age from your DOB - three more years, and I'll be back into the 19th century. It gives you a rather different perspective on what you thought was 'ancient' history when you were at school.

Triumph and Trauma: The British General Election of 2024 Join the Mile End Institute to look back on the 2024 general election, the historic Conservative collapse and Labour's “loveless landslide"!

On 10 December, join @timbale.bsky.social, @stephenkb.bsky.social, @rmcunliffe.bsky.social & @psurridge.bsky.social to discuss "The British General Election of 2024". Join us to explore how the election was won, where it was lost & what's changed since July 2024.
www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/triumph-an...

I spent upwards of half an hour trying to make sure I got the maths right, and it turns out Love Me Do only got to number one in the US.

Time catches up with us all When your memories become someone else’s history

😱 "For example, the release of The Beatles’ first UK number one, Love Me Do, is closer to the reign of Queen Victoria than it is to the present day." @jackkessler.bsky.social

75% of Reform UK’s donations have come from just three rich men Calls grow for donation caps as Democracy for Sale research reveals that three-quarters of Reform’s funding comes from a trio of wealthy donors

🔴 Nigel Farage’s Reform is more reliant on super-rich backers than any major party in modern British political history

75% of *all* Reform donations *ever* have come from just three rich men

Is this what democracy looks like?

New on Democracy for Sale
democracyforsale.substack.com/p/75-of-refo...

In case you’re wondering about the state of the coalition talks in the Netherlands…

(pictured the five parties talking and the look on the face of the ‘informateur’ says it all)

The 'Pink Ladies' Laundering Anti-Migrant Views Into the Mainstream An anti-migrant movement backed by Reform and Conservative politicians and regularly invited onto news channels is funded by a far-right group and has platformed a Neo-Nazi activist

A supposedly grassroots anti-migrant movement led by 'ordinary' women, which is backed by Reform and Conservative politicians and is regularly invited onto news channels to promote their views, is funded by a far-right group and has platformed a Neo-Nazi activist

bylinetimes.com/2025/12/05/t...

👇👇 l

The Covid Inquiry shows the importance of ministerial leadership during crises | Institute for Government Clarity of priorities, clear messaging and visible leadership are paramount in any crisis.

The Covid Inquiry shows the importance of ministerial leadership during crises

Clarity of priorities, clear messaging and visible leadership are paramount in any crisis. @sophiedaud.bsky.social @timdurrant.bsky.social

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comm...

Women/History/Teaching UK
[One of the most shocking findings was that over one third of the papers – 34.7% – contained no mention of any women at all. They were not mentioned in questions, in the historical sources provided for students to examine, or in mark schemes.]

Women are still absent from how history is taught and assessed in England Over a third of GCSE, AS and A-level exam papers in 2023 made no mention of women at all.

Well, I thought this was interesting anyway.

This is just excellent, every single point is essential to understanding UK politics - and I can’t wait to read the book by @timbale.bsky.social @psurridge.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @robfordmancs.bsky.social

Even tactical voting will not help Labour survive a Tory-Reform pact Nigel Farage has been quick to deny reports that, before the next general election, he intends to do a deal with the Conservatives – but if the right-wing parties ever formalised such an arrangement, ...

“A pact or merger also helps Reform overcome one of the biggest doubts that people have about voting for it –namely its sheer inexperience. Nigel Farage as prime minister and Robert Jenrick as chancellor? Be afraid – be very afraid.”

Even tactical voting will not help Labour survive a Tory-Reform pact Nigel Farage has been quick to deny reports that, before the next general election, he intends to do a deal with the Conservatives – but if the right-wing parties ever formalised such an arrangement, ...

“A pact or merger also helps Reform overcome one of the biggest doubts that people have about voting for it –namely its sheer inexperience. Nigel Farage as prime minister and Robert Jenrick as chancellor? Be afraid – be very afraid.”

Disappointed: thought it was going to be yet another Telegraph story about how Kemi Badenoch's improving

This post by @samfr.bsky.social on the new book by @robfordmancs.bsky.social, @timbale.bsky.social, @drjennings.bsky.social and @psurridge.bsky.social is as good as everyone says.

Especially this point busting the myth of the Red Wall and the "hero voter".

samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...

Logical step for Labour is to reverse Brexit The political and economic case for the party to campaign in 2028-29 for a return to the single market is overwhelming

Whether an appeal to logic can work with this government is, as we know, something of a moot point.

Six lessons from the 2024 election And what they mean for the next one

New post just out:

Six lessons from the 2024 election.

And what they mean for the next one.

Covering: Labour's fatal misunderstanding about why they won; effects of a more fragmented system; changes in media/polling.

(£/free trial)

samf.substack.com/p/six-lesson...