Critical Threats Project

The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.

The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.

The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.

NEW | The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Insider reports continue to indicate that the Kremlin is expecting the war to continue until at least the September 2026 State Duma elections.

Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.

The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternate reality, setting wildly unrealistic deadlines that do not match Russia's actual battlefield capabilities.

Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in the last two weeks of February 2026 for the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive.

Russian officials continue to condemn the US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support the United States.

NEW | The United States and Israel are striking Iran's drone and missile facilities to reduce the pressure on missile and drone interceptors – a capability the United States is denying Ukraine by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Israeli officials stated that the IDF will intensify its strikes on Lebanon and may target Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem. IDF Spokesperson Brigadier General Effie Defrin told Israeli media that "all options are on the table."

The IDF has taken steps to enhance security and reduce threats along the Israel-Lebanon border in response to Hezbollah’s attacks, including a plan for continued defensive and offensive preparedness against Hezbollah.

The IDF reported that it struck over 70 Hezbollah weapons depots, launch sites, and launchers in southern Lebanon.

MORE | The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military sites and institutions in Lebanon on March 2 to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against Israel. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The United States and Israel conducted several attacks targeting Iranian-backed Iraqi militias in Iraq on March 1 and 2 to degrade the militias’ ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

The combined force struck the Natanz Nuclear Facility in Esfahan Province on March 2, which marks the first attack on an Iranian nuclear site since the start of the US-Israeli campaign on February 28.

The combined force launched several airstrikes on March 2 targeting Iranian internal security sites responsible for maintaining security, suppressing protests, and spreading regime propaganda.

The combined force’s strikes on Iranian air defense systems also enable Israel and the United States to operate lower-generation aircraft in Iran with less risk.

NEW | The combined force continued to degrade Iranian air defenses to maintain air superiority over western Iran and Tehran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia will shift its long-range missile and drone strikes target set to include Ukrainian logistics and water infrastructure going into Spring 2026.

US allies and partners in the Middle East should learn from Ukraine's years of experience defending against almost nightly large-scale Russian missile and drone strike packages, including some comprised in large part of Iranian-origin attack drones.

Iranian threats against vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz are causing significant spikes in global oil prices, which if sustained, could reverse over a year of declining Russian oil revenues.

NEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to posture himself as a peacemaker and potential mediator between Iran and the Gulf States amid the ongoing US-Israeli operation against Iran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Commercially available satellite imagery shows that the combined force damaged a building at the the Fifth Tehran Municipality Quds Basij Resistance Regional Base in northwestern Tehran in airstrikes on March 1. This base is one of the 23 Basij regional bases in Tehran.

The combined force has continued to attack Iranian naval assets in order to prevent Iran’s navies from being able to conduct retaliatory attacks against international shipping and US Navy vessels.

Satellite imagery captured on March 2 shows damage to a missile base near Najafabad, Esfahan Province. The imagery shows three impact points likely caused by bunker buster bombs.

NEW | The combined US-Israeli force continued to degrade Iran's retaliatory capabilities and target Iran's internal security apparatus overnight. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

CTP-ISW is monitoring early reports that Lebanese Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel. This attack would mark the first Hezbollah rocket attack into Israel since the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.

The inconsistency of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on March 1 suggests that Iranian units may be struggling to coordinate large-scale attacks.