Critical Threats Project

Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 4, 2026

Read the full update here: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Iran will continue to attempt to disrupt international shipping through the Strait of Hormuz as part of a broader effort to impose a cost on the Gulf states using missiles and drones until the combined force degrades the ability of Iran to do so.

The combined force destroyed more provincial sites of internal and external forces key to the armed forces’ domestic control over the population in Tehran and Kurdish-populated cities in northwestern Iran.

There are reports that Kurdish groups moving from Iraqi Kurdistan have begun a cross-border ground operation in Iran. CTP-ISW has observed no corroborating evidence of such an operation, and a senior Iraqi Kurdistan official denied that any groups from Iraqi Kurdistan had begun an operation.

NEW | The IDF conducted multiple strikes at several military compounds in southeastern Tehran on March 4 that house the headquarters of several services and branches of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) as well as other internal security forces.

Russian forces are intensifying their use of drones, including Shaheds, at both the tactical and operational levels as part of their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign.

Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians.

The Kremlin is continuing its reflexive control campaign that aims to influence French and British nuclear strategy and Coalition of the Willing decision-making.

Russia is blaming Ukraine for a strike on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, accusing Ukraine of "escalating" the war.

NEW | Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian frigate and other Russian warships during March 1 to 2 overnight strikes against the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Iran continues to conduct drone and ballistic missile attacks targeting Gulf countries hosting US forces.

The combined force also continued to attack Iranian naval capabilities, and targeted Iranian internal security institutions and defense industrial sites.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on March 4 that the number of ballistic missiles Iran has fired regionally has decreased 86 percent since the start of the combined force’s campaign on February 28, with a 23 percent decrease in the past 24 hours.

NEW | The US-Israeli combined force continued to degrade Iran’s ballistic missile and drone infrastructure in Iran. The joint force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran's ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor supplies. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The Lebanese government has taken unprecedented action against Hezbollah for its involvement in the war, which will likely have long-term implications for Hezbollah.

The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah military sites and institutions in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against Israel.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) has withdrawn from some of its positions in southern Lebanon amid the IDF’s “forward defense maneuver[s].”

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the IDF will seize territory in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah direct fire attacks on northern Israeli towns.

MORE | Hezbollah has conducted six attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 8:00 AM ET on March 3. Hezbollah conducted a total of nine attacks against Israeli forces on March 3. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The United States and Israel continued to strike Iranian-backed Iraqi militias on March 2 and 3 to degrade their ability to conduct retaliatory attacks against US forces and Israel.

The IDF continued to strike sites associated with Iran’s nuclear program, including facilities linked to weaponization research conducted by Iranian nuclear scientists.

The decrease in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the UAE strongly suggests that the effort to destroy ballistic missile launchers has had considerable success.

The destruction of missile launchers mitigates the risk that either the United States or Israel will run out of interceptors by limiting Iran’s ability to launch missiles in the first place.

NEW | The combined US-Israeli force has designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before the force depletes its interceptor stockpiles. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Insider reports continue to indicate that the Kremlin is expecting the war to continue until at least the September 2026 State Duma elections.

Russia has failed to achieve the objectives of its Winter 2025-2026 long-range missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.

The Russian military command continues to operate in an alternate reality, setting wildly unrealistic deadlines that do not match Russia's actual battlefield capabilities.

Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in the last two weeks of February 2026 for the first time since the Summer 2023 counteroffensive.

Russian officials continue to condemn the US-Israeli strike campaign against Iran, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to support the United States.

NEW | The United States and Israel are striking Iran's drone and missile facilities to reduce the pressure on missile and drone interceptors – a capability the United States is denying Ukraine by refusing to provide Tomahawk cruise missiles. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...