Critical Threats Project

European states continue to crack down on Russian shadow fleet vessels sailing in violation of international sanctions.

The Kremlin will likely remain constrained by its own war effort in Ukraine and its desire to extract concessions from the United States without sacrificing its goals in Ukraine.

NEW | Russia continues to offer no support but boilerplate condemnations to Iran following the deaths of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other senior Iranian officials. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

CTP and ISW will continue posting regular updates over the next 48 hours.

Several members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have condemned the US and Israeli strikes in Iran but have not conducted retaliatory attacks as of CTP-ISW's 04:00 PM ET data cutoff.

Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz at the time of this writing despite warning vessels against transiting through the strait.

CENTCOM stated that Iran’s retaliation in response to the joint US-Israeli air campaign has not inflicted US casualties or caused meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations against Iran.

The regime’s internet shutdown has almost certainly limited the amount of information about US and Israeli strikes coming out of Iran.

The combined force conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of its campaign, according to an unspecified US official speaking to Fox News. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it struck 500 Iranian targets.

The combined US-Israeli force killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and it is unclear who is currently ruling Iran.

NEW | The United States and Israel are pursuing several lines of effort to achieve their stated campaign objectives: 1) suppressing Iranian air defenses, 2) degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities, and 3) disrupting Iranian command-and-control. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

CTP-ISW will publish multiple updates and maps over the next 24 hours to provide analysis about the ongoing US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The United States sanctioned KIPAS in October 2021 for working with the IRGC Quds Force, including by conducting test drone flights for the Quds Force.

KIPAS has also been involved in supplying drones to Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.

BREAKING: The IDF issued an evacuation order for the Jey Industrial Town in Esfahan, which is where the Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS) is located. KIPAS is the IRGC Quds Force’s drone production arm. understandingwar.org/analysis/mid...

Iran has also attacked several US bases in the Gulf. Iran has conducted attacks against US bases in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait thus far. This map shows US positions in the Middle East but it does not show which bases Iran has struck.

Iran has responded to the US and Israeli strikes with unprecedented speed. Iran has launched about 35 missiles at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli military correspondent.

The US and Israel will most likely strike a wide variety of targets in Iran.

This map highlights the large variety and wide geographic spread of infrastructure that the US or Israel could strike, including some Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure across Iran. It does NOT show targets that the US or Israel have struck.

The strikes have reportedly killed the IRGC commander, Iran’s defense minister, “intelligence chief,” and defense council secretary. The list of Iranian casualties may change as more information becomes available.

The decapitation strikes have targeted the supreme leader, whose whereabouts remain unknown, and other senior Iranian officials.

Israel has reportedly focused on decapitation strikes and military targets, and the US has focused mostly on military targets.

BREAKING: The US and Israel have conducted strikes on Iran designed to set conditions for regime change and to prevent Iran from militarily threatening the US or Israel. understandingwar.org/analysis/mid...

Russian forces likely used white phosphorus in Kostyantynivka and may have indiscriminately affected civilian areas in violation of international law.

A Russian drone approached the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Swedish port of Malmo on February 25.

The Kremlin is continuing to crack down on pro-war information space figures that it cannot fully co-opt or subordinate to state control as part of wider efforts to consolidate the information space under the Kremlin’s control.

Russia is  reportedly expanding recruitment efforts in higher educational institutions to staff the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF).

NEW | Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparation of the battlefield for the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

Iranians continued to hold anti-regime protests during 40-day mourning ceremonies across Iran. CTP-ISW recorded four protests, including two large protests, at 40-day mourning ceremonies across four provinces on February 27.

The IAEA report comes amid US officials’ concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. US Vice President JD Vance stated on February 25 that the United States has “seen evidence” that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons program.

The IAEA report comes amid US officials’ concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. US Vice President JD Vance stated on February 25 that the United States has “seen evidence” that Iran is trying to rebuild its nuclear weapons program.