Critical Threats Project

The IDF has continued to conduct airstrikes targeting Hezbollah sites across Lebanon to degrade the group’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks, and has advanced further into southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah’s use of long-range weaponry is notable given that Hezbollah was hesitant to use these weapons in the Fall 2024 Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Hezbollah claimed 22 attacks targeting IDF forces and positions in northern Israel and southern Lebanon between 3:00 PM ET on March 8 and 3:00 PM ET on March 9, including several rocket, mortar, and drone attacks targeting Israeli forces and positions along both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.

Hezbollah is using long-range projectiles to attack Israel. Senior Israeli officials expect Hezbollah to increase the volume of its rocket and drone attacks against Israel in "the coming days" as part of an effort to "draw Israeli attention away" from Iran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Ukrainian forces have been intensifying their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Crimea over the past month.

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to support the Iranian regime while predictably taking advantage of the conflict in the Middle East to engage in energy blackmail.

Ukrainian interceptor drones and personnel with experience downing Shahed drones are helping protect US military infrastructure in the Middle East.

The cascading effects that the Ukrainian counterattacks in the Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole, and Zaporizhia directions have generated in other sectors of the front show how constrained the Russian force structure in Ukraine really is.

The counterattacks in southern Ukraine are also having strategic effects in other parts of the theater.

Russian forces are thus facing a far more difficult battlefield situation in southern Ukraine in early March than they did at the start of 2026.

The Russian command likely hoped that Russian advances in the Hulyaipole direction would complement Russian advances near Orikhiv, which would in turn enable Russian forces to advance toward Orikhiv from the east and west and later enable advances toward Zaporizhzhia City itself.

NEW | Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking not only in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions but also in western Zaporizhia Oblast. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

The combined force targeted a company in Tehran that is involved in the regime’s censorship and filtering of the internet.

The combined force has degraded Iran’s internal security apparatus in Tehran and parts of western Iran. The combined force has struck dozens of internal security institutions across central and western Iran since February 28.

CTP-ISW has recorded combined force airstrikes targeting 10 out of Iran’s 17 Artesh Air Force tactical airbases and three out of Iran’s six Artesh Ground Forces Aviation bases across Iran since February 28.

NEW | The combined force has severely degraded Iran’s missile and drone capabilities, which has limited Iran’s ability to launch retaliatory attacks in the region. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

The US-Israeli combined force has continued strikes targeting Iranian Law Enforcement Command and IRGC infrastructure. The force successfully struck several key IRGC Ground Forces sites in Esfahan Province.

Iran has also attacked Israel with cluster munitions and conducted a drone attack in Bahrain since March 8 at 3:00 PM ET.

The Emirati Defense Ministry reported that Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones at the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on March 9. This marks a significant decrease in the number of drones launched at the UAE since March 8.

NEW | Iran has continued to attack Israel and other regional countries since 3:00 PM ET on March 8. The Turkish Defense Ministry stated on March 9 that a ballistic missile launched from Iran entered Turkish airspace, and was intercepted by NATO air defenses. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Continued investment into Ukraine's defense industrial base is important not just for Ukrainian security but also for the United States and its allies.

Ukraine's institutional knowledge has enabled Ukrainian firms to rapidly develop and refine capabilities specifically tailored to counter Iranian-origin weapons.

The UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait have already requested or expressed interest in importing Ukrainian interceptor drones from Ukrainian companies who have the ability to export battle-tested interceptor drones to the US and US allies.

Ukrainian experts and military personnel will depart from Ukraine on March 9 to teach unspecified Gulf states Ukraine's knowledge on how to destroy drones.

MORE | Ukraine’s experience in defending against Iranian drones can strengthen the air defenses of the United States and its allies in the Middle East. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

Mojtaba will face several immediate challenges, including trying to establish his legitimacy and attempting to unite and gain the support of various regime factions. Mojtaba’s connections to the IRGC and the Office of the Supreme Leader may mitigate some of these challenges. (3/3)

Mojtaba’s selection as the Supreme Leader represents a victory for hardline factions over more pragmatic figures within the regime. (2/3)

NEW | Iran’s Assembly of Experts selected former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the next Supreme Leader on March 8.
Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira... (1/3)

Hezbollah has claimed 19 attacks targeting IDF positions and forces in northern Israel and southern Lebanon since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff at 3:00 PM ET on March 7. (11/11)

Unspecified security sources told Reuters that unidentified actors conducted a drone attack targeting the United Nations building in Sulaymaniyah, Iraqi Kurdistan. (10/11)