Critical Threats Project

CTP-ISW is monitoring early reports that Lebanese Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel. This attack would mark the first Hezbollah rocket attack into Israel since the November 2024 Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement.

The inconsistency of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on March 1 suggests that Iranian units may be struggling to coordinate large-scale attacks.

Iran also appears to be relying more heavily on its drones compared to its ballistic missiles in its strike packages targeting Gulf states.

Iran appeared to fire significantly less munitions at Israel on March 1 than on February 28, which suggests that US-Israeli efforts to degrade Iran's retaliatory capabilities are succeeding.

The combined force seeks to disrupt the Iranian navies’ ability to attack international shipping and US Navy vessels.

The combined force conducted several strikes targeting Iranian drone launch facilities in southeastern Iran that Iran likely used to launch drones at its Arab Gulf neighbors.

The IDF announced that it has started “systematically dismantling” Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

The combined force has continued to target Iranian internal security institutions responsible for maintaining stability and suppressing protests, including security forces along Iran’s northwestern borders with Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan.

The combined US-Israeli force has struck over 2,000 targets in Iran and achieved air superiority over Tehran. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

European states continue to crack down on Russian shadow fleet vessels sailing in violation of international sanctions.

The Kremlin will likely remain constrained by its own war effort in Ukraine and its desire to extract concessions from the United States without sacrificing its goals in Ukraine.

NEW | Russia continues to offer no support but boilerplate condemnations to Iran following the deaths of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several other senior Iranian officials. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...

CTP and ISW will continue posting regular updates over the next 48 hours.

Several members of Iran’s Axis of Resistance, including Hezbollah and the Houthis, have condemned the US and Israeli strikes in Iran but have not conducted retaliatory attacks as of CTP-ISW's 04:00 PM ET data cutoff.

Iran has not attacked vessels in the Strait of Hormuz at the time of this writing despite warning vessels against transiting through the strait.

CENTCOM stated that Iran’s retaliation in response to the joint US-Israeli air campaign has not inflicted US casualties or caused meaningful damage to US military installations used to conduct offensive operations against Iran.

The regime’s internet shutdown has almost certainly limited the amount of information about US and Israeli strikes coming out of Iran.

The combined force conducted nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours of its campaign, according to an unspecified US official speaking to Fox News. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that it struck 500 Iranian targets.

The combined US-Israeli force killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and it is unclear who is currently ruling Iran.

NEW | The United States and Israel are pursuing several lines of effort to achieve their stated campaign objectives: 1) suppressing Iranian air defenses, 2) degrading Iranian retaliatory capabilities, and 3) disrupting Iranian command-and-control. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...

CTP-ISW will publish multiple updates and maps over the next 24 hours to provide analysis about the ongoing US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

The United States sanctioned KIPAS in October 2021 for working with the IRGC Quds Force, including by conducting test drone flights for the Quds Force.

KIPAS has also been involved in supplying drones to Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria.

BREAKING: The IDF issued an evacuation order for the Jey Industrial Town in Esfahan, which is where the Kimia Part Sivan Company (KIPAS) is located. KIPAS is the IRGC Quds Force’s drone production arm. understandingwar.org/analysis/mid...

Iran has also attacked several US bases in the Gulf. Iran has conducted attacks against US bases in Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait thus far. This map shows US positions in the Middle East but it does not show which bases Iran has struck.

Iran has responded to the US and Israeli strikes with unprecedented speed. Iran has launched about 35 missiles at Israel thus far, according to an Israeli military correspondent.

The US and Israel will most likely strike a wide variety of targets in Iran.

This map highlights the large variety and wide geographic spread of infrastructure that the US or Israel could strike, including some Iranian nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure across Iran. It does NOT show targets that the US or Israel have struck.

The strikes have reportedly killed the IRGC commander, Iran’s defense minister, “intelligence chief,” and defense council secretary. The list of Iranian casualties may change as more information becomes available.

The decapitation strikes have targeted the supreme leader, whose whereabouts remain unknown, and other senior Iranian officials.

Israel has reportedly focused on decapitation strikes and military targets, and the US has focused mostly on military targets.