Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Germany delivered an unspecified number of PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot air defense systems on March 10.
The Kremlin's efforts to downplay and misrepresent the Ukrainian strike against the Kremniy El factory sparked backlash among Russian ultranationalist milbloggers.
The Kremlin attempted to downplay the significance of the Ukrainian strike against the Kremniy El factory.
Ukrainian forces conducted a Storm Shadow cruise missile strike against a critical Russian microchip manufacturing plant in Bryansk City on March 10.
NEW | The Kremlin is likely setting informational conditions to expand Russian demands of Ukraine and NATO by making it clear that its current demands are no longer sufficient. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
Other countries are having similar success, though it is difficult to determine exact interception rates from the available data. The last reported Iranian ballistic missile strike in the Gulf occurred on March 5.
This interception rate is equivalent to the Israeli ballistic missile interception rates in April 2024, October 2024, June 2025, and during the current war. The interception rate also includes 19 missiles that were detected, not engaged, and landed in the sea.
The UAE, which has received the most Iranian attacks since the war began, has intercepted 241 of 262 ballistic missiles as of March 10, which is an interception rate of 92 percent.
There is evidence of damage to a THAAD battery radar in the UAE, for example, but the damage to this radar has not impacted the interception rate over the UAE.
Iran’s attacks targeting radars and other missile defense equipment in the Gulf have not achieved the regime’s objective of degrading air defenses enough to reliably penetrate them.
This strategy is not working to stop ballistic missiles, though drones remain a concern. Interception rates of ballistic missiles have not changed significantly.
NEW | The Iranian parliament speaker, a former senior military commander with close ties to the military, said that Iran opened the war by targeting US radar and air defenses to attack any target with fewer missiles. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The US-Israeli combined force also continues to target Iranian internal security and military targets. US CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said on March 10 that the US has struck more than 5,500 targets in Iran.
The combined US-Israeli force continues to degrade the Iranian Navy as part of an effort to limit Iran’s ability to threaten merchant shipping.
Iran is continuing to target commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz as part of its effort to disrupt maritime traffic and threaten freedom of navigation.
NEW | Iran has deployed fewer than 10 naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s reticence to deploy the naval mines en masse indicates that Iran remains hesitant to mine the straight due to the far-reaching political and economic costs Iran would incur. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
The combined force continued to target Iranian internal security institutions in western and northwestern Iran between March 9-10.
The regime similarly prioritized regime security following the June 2025 Iran-Israel War.
Iranian security and intelligence services reported several arrests across the Iran on March 10, including 30 individuals accused of acting as spies or “media operatives," and has reported arrests tied to alleged militant and anti-regime networks along Iran's southeastern and northwestern borders.
MORE | The Iranian regime is expanding securitization efforts amid the ongoing conflict, which likely reflects the regime’s paranoia about US-Israeli infiltration and signals a shift to prioritization of counterintelligence. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Mining is therefore an extreme option that Iran has resorted to and does not represent a desirable option for the country's military officials.
Iranian efforts to mine the Strait of Hormuz will also likely further hinder Iran’s ability to export oil, including shipments to China, the largest importer of Iranian oil.
Iranian mining efforts are part of a broader Iranian effort to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf in order to try to impose a cost on the Gulf states and the United States.
NEW | US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on March 10 that US forces destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers near the Strait of Hormuz. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/ira...
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exaggerate Russian battlefield advances despite Ukrainian forces’ recent liberation of significant territory in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces were likely able to rapidly advance in the Oleksandrivka direction after infiltrating dispersed Russian positions in poor weather conditions and suppressing Russian drone-based defenses.
Ukrainian forces were likely able to rapidly advance in the Oleksandrivka direction after infiltrating dispersed Russian positions in poor weather conditions and suppressing Russian drone-based defenses.
Ukrainian forces conducted mutually supporting drives in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late 2025 and early 2026, respectively, to push Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and to undermine Russian preparations for a spring offensive.
NEW | Ukrainian forces advanced 10 to 12 kilometers deep in two separate drives in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers since late January 2026. www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/rus...
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth noted during a Pentagon briefing on March 10 that Iran had fired its lowest number of missiles since the war began over the last 24 hours.
