US intervention in oil futures would be a ‘biblical disaster’, CME chief Terry Duffy warns, amid speculation the Trump administration was considering the option as.ft.com/r/8cde746a-4... @financialtimes.com
I have no view on this beyond finding grown men saying they’re “excited” strangely nauseating.
Oil just hit Mum and Dad seen dancing together in the kitchen. She’s glowing. He’s smiling for the first time in years. Kids confused.
The oil market thinks Trump just TACO’d (I’m less convinced, but let’s see)
A $30 price swing in a day, helped by expectations of a big strategic oil stock release. Such larks.
Oil tumbles to $90 as Trump says Iran war is ‘very complete’ www.ft.com/content/56dd... via @ft
For those who go to bed at a normal hour rather than watching Armageddon/a normal economic reaction to scarcity
You’ve got this the wrong way round. This is the good clock change for those who eat lunch bang on 12pm.
… the only factor but the can play a big role in shaping history in ways that are often hard to fathom at the time.
… and arguably reshaped the Middle East. MBS probably wouldn’t be the same MBS without it.
The growth of Dubai… maybe. But may not have recovered from its own debt crisis so quickly without Abu Dhabi being in a position to bail it out thanks to $100 black gold.
Oil prices are never…
Oh, to come back to the * in my first tweet.
$100 oil didn’t tank the economy but it did change a lot of things.
It created or at least accelerated the US shale boom, which arguably gave Trump the (false) confidence to roll the dice on Iran now.
Also gave Putin a shit tonne of cash…
So that’s why there’s a fair bit of noise around oil at the moment. It’s not a total disaster yet. But those who have seen this film before didn’t like the ending, and certainly weren’t crying out for a sequel.
Sweet dreams.
Now I’m not predicting that’s going to happen with oil this time. It might. Probably won’t. We’ll see.
But if you get a genuine shortage of an essential commodity, prices can quickly become unbound. Past reference points like ‘the key psychological $100 a barrel level’ become meaningless
And in the UK the government had to spend a lot just to take the edge off. Household bills still roughly doubled for gas and electric.
In oil terms European natural gas briefly - and thank god it was brief - hit the equivalent of over $500 a barrel. It fell pretty sharply but a lot of damage was done.
Inflation roofed, government’s fell, interest rates leapt etc etc.
If you were unlucky your mortgage payment almost doubled
… when Russia cut supplies to Europe, gradually then suddenly.
The result? Natural gas prices eventually spiked to never before imagined levels, as there was genuine concerns about running out…
But there weren’t any severe shortages in 2008. There was a fair bit of eve of financial crisis craziness that contributed it. A tale for another time.
A better illustration might be the European natural gas market in 2021-22…
The all-time high in nominal terms was $147.50. But that was 2008.
Inflation adjusted that’s $218 a barrel. And for UK followers you were getting $2 to the pound in 2008. Not any more.
B) is the scarier one. If things don’t improve then oil becomes very hard to price. Traders will pay what they need to secure it as it remains the world’s most essential commodity.
If there are genuine shortages how high can it go?
Well…
… then the impact on inflation is probably manageable and reasonably short-lived too. Painful but not catastrophic, and central banks can get back to gradually cutting interest rates.
Where it gets scary is a) we are just recovering from the last energy crisis and inflation was only (just about) being brought under control.
If the price rise is short-lived (as the war ends or they figure out how to safely escort oil through the Strait of Hormuz… easier said than done)…
Oil was about $60 a barrel at the start of the year.
It’s now well above $100 and doubling (from early January) to $120 in short order seems highly plausible.
Inflation adjusted it is still well below the 2011-14 average, however.
At the risk of boring everyone,a little context.
$100 oil in isolation isn’t that bad. It averaged around that level from 2011-2014 without severe economic ramifications*.
It’s the pace of the rise that has people spooked. And not knowing where it might stop.
Oil just hit Dad’s bought a convertible without telling Mum shortly after the open
I should feel sad but then a non-finance friend once said of my oil Tweets that: “Well it sounds important and like you’re having fun, and I guess that’s the main thing”.
Might as well have patted my head.
"He always goes for the hug but she's sticking with the formalities!" 😅
A nice moment between Princess Anne and Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu 🤗
Radical parties of the right and left in top two slots. Legacy parties getting only a third of the vote between them.
A whole new world.
American military assets in the region and Gulf oil supplies are vulnerable to retaliation and Israel is a renewed target.
Read the FT's military briefing here: ft.trib.al/sJzNxc2
Dips in younger and older travellers but broad trend up
Not doubting there are families for whom it applies, but it’s not *broadly* supported by the data.
But vibes that everything has got harder likely proving fatal for the ill-defined Starmer project.
Inflation has been horrible, no doubt, not least for those on lower incomes.
But it’s interesting how expectations have evolved.
Hard to square “Can’t even dream of having a holiday” with a more than doubling in foreign trips in ~20 years.
one of the world's largest smuggling networks has accidentally exposed itself because of a stupid e-mail configuration blunder, which has revealed around 50 apparently unconnected companies are all sharing back-office functions: www.ft.com/content/4310...
