Stefan Schubert

American voters reject Trump’s most aggressive policies Plus: long waits under rent control, falling Chinese lending to Africa, and more

Plus falling Chinese lending to Africa, web search isn't over just yet, the muted impact of the one-child policy, how insurance propels the adoption of self-driving cars, and how to adjust ownership and taxation to get more good shops.

www.update.news/p/american-v...

More AI-written code in Western countries than in China and Russia, perhaps in part because of blocks on ChatGPT and Claude

Also in today's newsletter: rent control is a bad idea - in Stockholm, it's led to more than 20 years' wait time for a flat in the city centre.

And you can only join at 18! Very much discriminates against the young.

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American voters reject Trump’s most aggressive policies Plus: long waits under rent control, falling Chinese lending to Africa, and more

There's a lot of gloom, but I’m encouraged by the fact that American voters reject Trump's most aggressive policies, like ICE's tactics and his efforts to acquire Greenland

Trump is erratic, but over the long run, policy is hugely influenced by the median voter.

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www.update.news/p/american-v...

Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more

In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.

But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.

In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.

www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...

Thank you, Duncan!

Enjoyed this. Good point that is always missing from debate

I'm the father of [my obscure PhD]

Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more

I also cover much else in my newsletter, including the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate the power of misinformation, and the limitations of METR's AI evaluations.

www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...

And since working life has become longer, this means that the share of adult life in retirement has decreased in the OECD.

Life expectancy has of course also increased, but the two trends have roughly offset each other in terms of the number of years in retirement.

In fact, people started retiring later by the turn of the millennium (reversing a previous downward trend) in the OECD.

Charts like this one from Eurostat are misleading, since they define 'old-age dependency' as starting at 65 regardless of when people actually retire.

Alarmist pension projections ignore later retirements Plus: the obstacles to AI shopping agents, why we overestimate misinformation, and more

In today's newsletter: there are many dire projections of one old 'dependent' for every two workers in the future.

But these projections ignore that the retirement age isn't fixed.

In fact, the share of adult life in retirement has gone down in the OECD.

www.update.news/p/alarmist-p...

Crazy! And it's crazy people aren't more upset about this. The rules need to be changed.

Over 10% of a game of Premier League football is waiting for someone to take a throw in

theanalyst.com/articles/pre...

How postponed births soften the fertility fall Plus: the economic recovery after Covid, big business growing its market share, and more

In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.

US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.

But... ->

www.update.news/p/how-postpo...

Interesting point, thanks

I also cover a lot more, including the post-Covid recovery, the rising market share of big business, why US water is so expensive, and more.

www.update.news/p/how-postpo...

Also, it should be remembered that fertility rates are actually higher in the US than in most rich countries.

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Among younger cohorts, the fall in fertility is larger, and it looks increasingly unlikely that postponed births will wholly compensate for it.

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How postponed births soften the fertility fall Plus: the economic recovery after Covid, big business growing its market share, and more

In my newsletter: how postponed births soften the fertility fall.

US women born in 1980 looked like they'd have fewer children than previous cohorts, but will actually end up with more - thanks to more children after 30 and 35.

But... ->

www.update.news/p/how-postpo...

Lol true

Apparently, this comparison is a reason for allowing China to build its new London embassy, not against it. 🙃

www.economist.com/briefing/202...

So lovely

Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s.

US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.

From my latest newsletter:

www.update.news/i/185179290/...

In my newsletter:

Chinese fertility is now 0.98, much lower than during the one-child policy.

I think it's due to cultural changes that are affecting the whole world, and especially East Asia.

Also why Waymos are safe, solar, a 90% fall in US burglaries, and more.

www.update.news/p/chinese-fe...

Thanks! 😊 (I didn't make it myself.)

Everyday crime has seen an extremely steep decline in the US since the 1980s/1990s.

US robberies have fallen by 80% and burglaries by almost 90% since their peaks.

From my latest newsletter:

www.update.news/i/185179290/...

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