It was a pleasure to be interviewed on the Giving Intelligence Podcast! We talked about how to identify highly effective charities, bridging donors' heart & head motivations, and the psychological science behind Giving Multiplier (@givingmultiplier.bsky.social).
New short paper w @jkalla.bsky.social !
Candidates gain from moderation, but less than many theories expect.
Many conclude voters must not care about issues.
This is wrong. Small *average* effects mask large effects on specific issues & are consistent with widespread issue-based voting 🧵
After the Pentagon designated Anthropic a supply chain risk, a debate has broken out about the relationship between the US government and AI companies. Today, I give an overview of takes on government monopoly on violence, misuse of AI regulations, and more.
www.update.news/p/who-should...
Rent in rent-regulated vs second-hand unregulated flats in Sweden's three largest cities.
Rents are 2.5x higher on the second-hand market in Stockholm.
An arbitrary and poor system.
(Monthly rent in SEK/square meter.)
fastighetstidningen.se/nyhet/gapet-...
"Many observers concluded that the multipolar world had arrived ... The reality is that the world is still unipolar."
Many have definitely underestimated US power.
www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Polymarket's estimate that the Iranian regime will fall this year has declined from a peak of 56% down to 34%
www.update.news/p/the-chance...
This actually understates the gap between England and the US. After grants and discounts, in-state students at US public colleges pay ~$2,500 per year. English bursaries are much smaller.
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
I think that overstates what US students actually have to pay
www.update.news/p/why-all-th...
If per person spending on the elderly goes up and the elderly share of the population also goes up, everything else gets squeezed and everyone is mad.
But it’s what the voters say they want.
www.slowboring.com/p/the-demoni...
Though southern Europe has a lower GDP than northern Europe, it has a higher life expectancy
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/...
The Gulf defence spending boom that follows this war is going to be quite something.
The EU employment rate keeps breaking records on the back of rising employment in southern Europe
ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web...
Is the US having a religious revival led by Generation Z, as some claim? No, it’s not: Gallup shows that secularisation continues and the youngest are the least religious of all.
www.update.news/p/the-myth-o...
Half of the youngest British voters now say they intend to vote for the Greens
yougov.com/en-gb/tracke...
Coefficient Giving directed over $1b in 2025, the most in our history. I wrote a more personal annual letter this year, focusing on what a decade of grantmaking has taught me, how I'm thinking about AI, and how we're grappling with giving at this scale. 🧵
Linking the PDF here: tinyurl.com/3sh3mwhp
Is the US having a religious revival led by Generation Z, as some claim? No, it’s not: Gallup shows that secularisation continues and the youngest are the least religious of all.
www.update.news/p/the-myth-o...
On average, the richest one percent of American men have partners just two years younger than themselves.
Striking contrast to some online discourse.
The debate about AI progress involves many complex considerations and can be hard to follow. Today's newsletter gives an overview of incisive takes on the automation of AI R&D, METR's time horizon metric, and more.
www.update.news/p/how-fast-i...
www.metaculus.com/questions/34...
Metaculus forecasters now expect "weak AGI" to arrive later than they did just before the launch of ChatGPT
The debate about AI progress involves many complex considerations and can be hard to follow. Today's newsletter gives an overview of incisive takes on the automation of AI R&D, METR's time horizon metric, and more.
www.update.news/p/how-fast-i...
After Maduro and Khamenei, Cuba's leader Miguel Díaz-Canel is expected to be next.
Polymarket estimates a 61% chance he is out by 30th June
From today's newsletter, also with links on India's mismeasured GDP, Orbán expected to lose, and more.
www.update.news/p/cubas-lead...
There are now more tech workers going from the US to Europe than the other way around
Teaching economics or social sciences?
Concepts like the unemployment rate or labor force participation can be tricky to explain clearly.
Our new Work & Employment page breaks these down with clear explanations and visualizations — all free to download and use in your classes and presentations.
Oh thanks, Gustav!
Thanks, I'll check it out
The debate on population decline is often confusing.
I distinguish between:
* The transition problem: a falling population affecting the age structure
* The size problem: fewer people being bad in itself
* The balance problem: decline in well-functioning countries
www.update.news/p/why-does-p...
Is it better to eat locally produced beef or imported fruit and vegetables?
The difference is enormous: since transport only accounts for five percent of greenhouse gas emissions from food, what you eat completely dominates where it comes from.
www.update.news/p/trump-prov...
