Matt Ritter

Nine years ago today, the shelf cloud went directly over us in Cathedral Heights. This was when my desk was next to the Glass Enclosed Nerve Center. The actual severe thunderstorm followed soon after.
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#wtop #GENC #glassenclosednervecenter #severestorms #DCwx #VAwx #MDwx

ATTN, fellow weather nerds (mostly meteorologists): this is sick (as the kids say)! Check out the isolated t'storms quickly growing as the cap breaks and the anvil tops are blowing east to west. [imagery COD] #meteorology #science #DCwx #VAwx #MDwx

#Metallica update: still on track from the constant, non-stop pouring rain to taper to spotty showers and drizzle between 4p-6p. Cool, damp, and drizzly through the show, unfortunately.
#NorthwestStadium #DCwx #MDwx #VAwx #Pantera #SuicidalTendencies

And there it is! More snow for us from the remnants of the upper low that moves over us overnight into the morning on Thursday. This is the energy that if it had phased with the southern stream in the Deep South would have led to a big storm.

Nah, GR2 would be absolute overkill for the news anchors in the studio. For that matter, most of its tools are geared to post-storm analysis. As a met, I couldn't have justified the expense at the station.

Disappointing. GR3 3 is a major upgrade complete with the different addressable flash flood and tornado warning polygons, stuff that the anchors could have found useful. I even paid for my own upgrade.

Oh, it's snowing aloft, but like we talked about yesterday, tremendously dry air in the low levels is just destroying it. That's why no data under 3k ft. I believe ultimately we'll get a dusting out of the upper low remnants tonight/tomorrow AM a la 12z HRRR. Hampton Roads coastal storm long gone.

It's not holey at all!

The other factor that is cutting down the amounts instead of enhancing ratios: bone dry air in the low levels that will be tough to overcome. Losing hours and hours of actual snow falling to sublimation virga.

If a highly phased scenario does indeed happen, you're likely to get very strong updrafts that will drastically increase the "fluff factor".

Ideally, you would want to see a lot more of those "plumes" clustered together, and clustered near the mean. The trick of the trade is that increases confidence in the "operational" output of a weather forecast model.

Too many butterflies having an effect.

They can't decide if the streams are going to phase, either a little or a lot.

It says jargon for meteorologists 😜 It means the models that everyone is seeing in viral clickbait posts probably do not have a good, certain handle on the next storm, either in large amounts of snow or zero amounts of snow for DC.

36 hrs away from the start of the event and the SREF plumes look like this??? What kind of data is getting into the deterministic models, or are the physics of the current setup too complex? Note the mean (black line) is much higher than the recent "nothing" amounts. /jargonformeteorologists

All else being equal, I am also anticipating areas of dense fog tonight with the rain and milder temperatures moving over the snowpack

Yesterday DCA got 5.9" of snow, 0.60" liquid equivalent. That's almost bullseye 10:1 ratio.

Looks like opening a non-text file with Notepad.

It has us.

That mix lasted mere minutes. We have very light snow now at the station. That means precipitation rates aloft are already very heavy. Conditions will deteriorate quickly during the evening rush, and especially after sunset.

Doppler radar "donut hole" is shrinking rapidly, so precipitation is getting closer and closer to the ground. With temps in the mid 30s and dewpoints in the teens, I think we'll start off as a mix of rain and sleet briefly before changing over to all snow. HRRR has that scenario. #DCwx #VAwx #MDwx

Person would have lost their mind during "sublimation".

I think the #SusquehannaValley is going to get 1"-2" of snow before quickly changing to sleet, which will accumulate for several hours, then changeover to pure freezing rain for several hours. Keep in mind, models always get rid of the low level cold air there too soon. #PAwx

Obv. ice early Thursday morning this week, possibly Sat. morning, and then a potential storm of some variety around this time next week.

For DC Wed night, the freezing rain should be brief before plain rain. In Lancaster PA, I know what deterministic models are saying, but MOS and the SREFs insist on brief accumulating snow and sleet before freezing rain, plain rain later in afternoon. /meteorology

The escalators in my building's lobby are temporarily stairs.

I just drew on my limited ATC experience via my Flight Service Specialist career to hopefully help our reporters covering the crash ask some good questions. I was definitely able to explain a lot more during the 2023 NOTAM system crash because I dealt with those bulletins every single day.

Man, I hope that #snowsquall breaks up before it gets to Interstate 80 in #Pennsylvania. Why do I feel like this is going to lead to something very bad? Snow squall #warnings in effect all the way up into New York state. Radio stations in PA, you gotta be on the air right now talking about these

J Brooks is disqualified.

I got this awesome #SunPillar this morning on #WMATA's Blue Line as we were coming into DCA. As usual, my phone washes it out too much, and the contrast was much better to the naked eye. Still, awesome. Moving on, let's thaw out now.