Kevin McKay

Few food price headlines today. Remember: We import most of our food and the price we pay for the stuff we produce is driven by export prices (e.g. butter).
Long-term contracts and delivery lags mean that our food prices follow global food price changes with about 12 months delay.

Most likely borrowing it from Banks who are quite happy to lend and let someone else finance higher risk books with excessive fees and interest rates. It’s a regulatory loophole.

Robertson was all about economic orthodoxy. Never signalled anything different. Labour are still abide by Rogernomics.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/541376/inflation-has-fallen-in-australia-and-nz-but-which-is-faring-better

Good article describing how RBNZ over-reacted spectacularly to the global inflation episode of 2022/23 and unnecessarily crushed tens of thousands of our jobs (aided and abetted by Govt in 23/24). Couple of things missing in the comparison though... (1/n)

This is the graph I love. Whenever someone talks about debt they should be actually be concerned with private debt.

If Govt debt is a private sector asset, how are our 'grandkids going to have to pay it back'? What does that even mean? When Govt debt as % of GDP reduced through the 50s and 60s (while we built absolutely shit loads of infra) did the kids suffer? Anything we can learn from that era?!? [8/n]

Another myth 🧵 This one is tricky as it challenges a neoliberal paradigm that a lot of progressives have adopted. The myth of 'taxpayer funding'. Let's take this one slowly and use some monumentally crap pictures to illustrate (I'm not proud). [1/n]

But, knowing that Govt is not fiscally constrained changes things. The question becomes 'how will we do this important thing?' rather than 'how will we find the money?' Eg, if we need to spend billions on green infra, how can taxes be used to free up the resources required to do the work? [10/n]

This is incredibly sad for everyone impacted. And totally avoidable.

Stay tuned next month to find out if Wellington gets less shit at retaining jobs than Auckland. Exciting times. [Ends]

It looks like Wellington is turning a corner. Whether it into a ferocious headwind remains to be seen. [8/n]

End on some positives (kinda). The seasonally adjusted data shows some moderate improvements for Nov and Dec 24. I suspect that this is because the seasonal adjustment is tuned to better times, but we'll see over the next few months. [7/n]

The net result was thousands of young people getting out-competed for entry-level and low-paid jobs. Again, you can see the turning point in May 23. Indeed, you could at the time.
NOTE: I will block anybody that talks negatively about the new people arriving here to find work. Seriously. [6/n]

Worth a look at that surge of vacancy-filling in 2023 when we opened the borders. Sadly, we ran out of jobs for the people arriving (I've circled the moment in May 2023)... and any extra demand created by our new friends was easily offset by all of that RBNZ and Govt squishing. [5/n]

Oh, you know jobs that build and make stuff. Nothing to worry about there. Mind you, losing 35 construction jobs per day for a year seems a bit careless when you have a massive infra and housing deficit. But, I guess the only alternative is communism and bread rationing, so, oh well. [4/n]

We're still running around 27,000 jobs down on the same month last year - despite increasing our working-age population by around 35,000 people. Obviously, this *is* primarily a private sector recession - it's the jobs that depend on demand that go when times are tough. Like what? [3/n]

Here's another view of the 'accrued' earnings data. Stats NZ do clever stuff to adjust for when paydays fall etc. Anyway, same picture - total earnings have been falling in real terms for over a year. Less earnings, less spending, fewer jobs. Talking of which... [2/n]

Monthly jobs 🧵
Here's total earnings adjusted for population and inflation. We got used to things getting better until something hit in 2020.
Now look really closely at 2021/22. See how we had it too good? Thankfully RBNZ and Govt took action to squish earnings (shame they forgot to stop) [1/n]

An RNZ news headline reads: Christopher Luxon hints National will campaign on asset sales in the 2026 election

This honestly feels like a weird thing to say. Like already National has seen declining popularity, and the economy isn't looking like it'll give them a great starting point for the next election.

Do asset sales poll well? Surely not?

NO ASSET SALES, NO PRIVATISATION

Now there can legitimately be some polling on asset sales, Curia will be doing it so I certainly hope Labour will have Talbot Mills doing the same!

I predict around 70% of New Zealanders are against asset sales but lets get it all out on the table well before they start their campaign #NZPol

You know what's bizarre is that asset sales are hugely unpopular even among National voters. No one likes them except libertarian fuckwits

263 reaction emoji to RNZ's asset sales story on Facebook. 160 of them are "angry"

We very much do not like asset sales #nzpol

Little 🧵 to supplement yesterday's benefits update.
First up, let's have a look what's going on with jobseekers numbers. Yes, they're going up (obviously) - now a full 70,000 above the Govt's fricken target. But, what's happening behind the headline? [1/n]

Graph shows total imports and exports from 2001 to 2024 - including income and capital flows. The graph used basic trendlines to illustrate a divergent trend - exports and imports both increase but the gap between the two is getting wider.

We can't commit ecocide fast enough to stop these lines diverging. The gap between the yellow and pink lines is the NZ wealth we transfer offshore each year. This basically gets deducted from our GDP. We hear a lot about growing the yellow line, but shit all about reducing the pink line. Wonder why.

all stats from stats nz experimental releases

Weekly jobs data day - how's growth going?
Well, we're 40,000 jobs below the same week last year despite adding well over 50,000 people to the working-age population. Can someone help me out with the maths? Is that good? [🧵/n]

Still confused by talk of a 'vibecession'. Over the last three years we have had:
- wages falling behind the cost of living
- benefit numbers up 50,000 (14%)
- 50,000 more people are unemployed (up 55%)
- underutilisation is up 90,000 (34%)
- company liquidations, exodus, we've stopped building etc

The Rise of Wall Street and Fall of U.S. Investment | American Compass How Wall Street's "non-investment causes stagnant productivity and skyrocketing inequality, and what policymakers can do about it.

Read this article last week - nice definition split between investors, savers, and speculators. The size of speculation is a huge issue both because of bubbles and risk, but because of the -ve impact they can have on policy e.g. Govt budget deficits.

americancompass.org/speculating-...

h/t @karaswisher.bsky.social

Massive news in the end of November banking data...
Monthly interest payments on mortgages actually went down! A full -0.18% reduction month-on-month or a whopping $3m off the $1.95 billion monthly interest bill. Praise be. [🧵1/n]