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Jacob Shively

@jacobshively.bsky.social

Foreign policy & grand strategy. I also teach tech & nt'l security, religion & int'l politics, int'l law, causes of war. Failure my own, success coincidental.

142 Followers  |  232 Following  |  78 Posts  |  Joined: 27.11.2023  |  2.2874

Latest posts by jacobshively.bsky.social on Bluesky

Here is the chart (even from the NYT!) that illustrates the abject poverty of this op-ed. We need to stop writing about "What Higher Education Institutions Must Do" by ignoring the large, fat end of this distribution of institutions/students & pretending the small, thin end is the entire system.

14.04.2025 15:13 β€” πŸ‘ 142    πŸ” 35    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 3

The schadenfreude folks igore the obvious: This has been happening in FL for several years.

People are getting abrupt notices that their coverage will be dropped. Last year, we had to suddenly pay for a new roof and scramble to find new coverage. Plus, rates change wildly from year-to-year.

10.01.2025 15:46 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Accidentally activated a new anxiety for my wife when, without prompting, I told her about P(doom).

Knowledge is power!

09.12.2024 16:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Today's typo award goes to....

ANGLOSPHERICAL

05.12.2024 12:32 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Seems like there is a point in democratic liefcycles at which militaries--maybe thanks to professional socialization--transition to being more reliably committed to democracy/constiututionalism than any given president.

03.12.2024 19:56 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Have been adding ingredients to this mix as it is eaten. You could say it's a... Snack of Theseus!

14.10.2024 01:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Americans can't seem to bring themselves to apply ethnic politics frameworks to their own system. It's pretty simple, and the models are a tight fit.

Perhaps b/c the identities are asymmetric: Dems are a coaltion of identities, but Republicans are a coalition with a "conservative" identity.

11.10.2024 13:55 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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26.09.2024 10:41 β€” πŸ‘ 1436    πŸ” 1380    πŸ’¬ 27    πŸ“Œ 78
Preview
Vintage Boston Champion Desktop Chrome Gray Pencil Sharpener Very Good - Item may or may not come in original packaging. Item has been tested and is in full working condition. Thank you for stopping by and please check out my other vintage items

I think they don't make 'em like they used to: we have one of these, and it is truly the pinnacle of this tech, I think because they used top-tier materials. bridgettsgadgets.com/products/vin...

16.09.2024 21:24 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Another useful term here is "nationalist."

One argument in my last book is that Trump's foreign policy wasn't conservative, realist, hawkish, or whatever. It was nationalist, as he himself stated.

Americans seem cagy about using the word, but it is both accurate and his own language.

13.09.2024 14:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

(2/2) In that case, I think he was skeptical of the empirical turn of midcentury poli sci. Plus Strauss was controversial in his own right, which underscores the basic problem of shared values unis are confronting.

BUT the question should spur academic professionals.

12.09.2024 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I think a lot about a line I read in grad school by a political philosopher (Leo Strauss?). In effect:

What good is a science or study of politics if it can't, like a physician diagnosing cancer, identify political evils? (1/2)

12.09.2024 13:54 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

With #APSA this week, I formally propose "exostructure" as the antonym of "infrastructure."

e.g., "Exostructure week" never arrived despite promises the president would devote more time to international alliances, building logistical partnerships, and investing in satellite technology.

04.09.2024 13:48 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

3/3 Down the shelf, I also have Kissinger's memoirs. I pulled it for comparison.

Impenetrably long, make no mistake, but readers can jump right into flow of his prose and get pulled along. Do I trust all of it? No, but I'm also more likely to read it.

03.09.2024 16:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

2/
This morning, I grabbed "Political Leadership: A Sourcebook" from 1986. It's got some well-known names from the period.

Dipping into a few chapters was exhausting: long sentences, precise jargon, etc. Good insights, maybe, but I gave up.

03.09.2024 16:07 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The outsized influence of some scholars is absolutely tied to their ability and willingness to write so that we can assign it to students and smart practitioners can read it.

For example, I'll sometimes pull old books from my shelf when I'm writing just to refresh on how someone else wrote…. 1/

03.09.2024 16:06 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I've been thinking the idea that Dems "haven't felt this excited since 2008" was exaggerated and, anyway, impossible to measure, but there it is.

30.08.2024 14:22 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I wonder if it's a COVID stimulus effect: a LOT of US households felt like they had breathing room on their budgets, could achieve some long-desired purchases, etc. People paid down credit cards. Child poverty dropped.

The rush out of that support feels bad even w/decent wages.

27.08.2024 16:11 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

A truth I hold to be self-evident is that the Department Secretary is the most vital member of every department in academia. However, the amount schools actually pay that position and the resulting turnover rate is low-key devastating to every facet of institutional functionality.

27.08.2024 11:39 β€” πŸ‘ 395    πŸ” 57    πŸ’¬ 23    πŸ“Œ 13

Once when we mentioned something about the 1990s, my daughter hunched over, pretended to be wobbly with a cane, and used an extreme granny voice to say, "I was born in the 1900s."

26.08.2024 13:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Alien [1979] movie opening interview with moviegoers
YouTube video by Vampire Robot Alien [1979] movie opening interview with moviegoers

I'm hoping this is what the dad at 0:39 here meant when he said, "Things like that could happen in life."

www.youtube.com/watch?v=_zrx...

22.08.2024 15:59 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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See also:

20.08.2024 15:55 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Good summary. Seems like along w/age, Biden also got tagged inflation & int'l wars despite effectively keeping the latter contained. Plus, his approval cratered after Afghanistan.

I think he may come out a like Truman, who was unpopular when he left but is now seen as a good president.

20.08.2024 01:25 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I bet it's the former. There is no policy to evaluate, so this thread jumps the gun on "price controls."

As you say, price gouging IS illegal under given conditions, so it's perfect to play up for campaigning to show voters that Harris sees their concern on prices w/minimal backend commitments.

15.08.2024 22:16 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Seeing this w/my own kids: seems the history and maybe civics curricula really haven't changed in terms of coverage since they were updated in the 1980s or 90s.

Most of my students know all about the "Jazz Age," WWII & civil rights but have never heard of the Gulf War and know 9/11 from YouTube.

13.08.2024 21:49 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Kursk's Next Operational Phase Ukraine's Big Swing and its Future Strategic Options in Kursk

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost one week into execution. My latest piece explores the options now available to Ukraine as it moves into the second week operations in Kursk, and the considerations and risks involved with each option. mickryan.substack.com/p/kursks-nex...

12.08.2024 09:43 β€” πŸ‘ 128    πŸ” 41    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 3

You can gauge an academic's generational cohort by whether their textbook mentions "fax machines" as an engine of modern globalization.

31.07.2024 22:47 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Online matters, but the influence of a guy talking into a microphone for three hours on local radio or a podcast is wildly underrated.

04.07.2024 15:36 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

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