Ryan Burge

It's a great question. I have lots of thoughts about the data that I use in my work and how I present that information to audiences.

Unfortunately, the character limits of this platform and others like it aren't conducive to that type of nuanced discussion.

It's something I mention in lots and lots of talks.

I show this slide and say:

The Gallup estimate of nones is 23%. That's probably too low.
The CES estimate is 35%. That's probably too high.

Pew and GSS have the number around 30%. That's probably the best guess we have.

In the words of Obama surrounding gay marriage, "my thinking has evolved."

The new GSS data coming out a few weeks ago was a big catalyst for that.

YouGov is a reputable polling firm. It's not like the Bible Society used Survey Monkey.

But they struggle w/young respondents.

This is something I note in a forthcoming piece.

CES is YouGov.

Huge gaps in attendance in the Gen Z part of the sample when comparing to GSS.

But what's fascinating is that on affiliation measures, there is evidence of stasis. That's true in CES, RLS, and GSS.

The Political Paradox: Why Never-Attending Christians and Atheists Are Worlds Apart Religious attendance probably obscures more than it reveals when it comes to voting behavior

New post today where I make the claim that if you are trying to study how religion impacts vote choice,

Then attendance has almost no utility at all.

Affiliation tells you a whole lot more.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/the-politi...

"If you say you are a Christian who never attends church, you might as well be an atheist."

That may be valid from a theological perspective.

But politically, those two groups are worlds apart.

63% of never attending Protestants voted for Trump.

It was 11% of atheists.

"Homosexual couples should the right to marry one another."

Share agreeing in 2018, 2021, 2022, 2024

Democrats:
77% -> 79% -> 82% -> 78%

Independents:
62% -> 58% -> 66% ->68%

Republicans:
58% -> 46% -> 51% -> 46%

Left out the Evangelical Lutheran Church of America!

2.9M.

Always helpful to see how large (or small) a bunch of religious denominations/groups are.

This data is compiled by me from a bunch of disparate sources all over the internet.

There should be some type of universal reporting system for this.

So, someone get on it.

Support for legal access to an abortion if a woman wants one for any reason.

2000:
Never Church Attenders: 52%
Weekly Attenders: 23%

2024:
Never Church Attenders: 74% (+22)
Weekly Attenders: 33% (+10)

2024 Election Post-Mortem: Jews Is the alliance between Jewish voters and the Democrats weakening?

A new post today in my ongoing series about religion and the 2024 election.

This one focuses on the Jewish vote.

Still solidly Democratic.

A pretty standard election for the Jewish portion of the electorate.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

What role should the US take in the conflict between Israel and Hamas?

22% of the public says "stay out of it."

26% wants to send arms to Israel. It's 59% of Jews.

23% wants to deploy US troops to the region. It's 40% of Jews.

Basically no one wants to arm Hamas.

How Certain Are Clergy of their Faith? This post has been unlocked through a generous grant from the Lilly Endowment for the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA).

I look at questions like what % of clergy believe in:

Literal Adam and Eve
The bodily resurrection of Jesus
Hell
Miraculous healing
Astrology
Reincarnation

I analyze data about their views of the Bible.

And the superiority of their worldview

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/how-certai...

I've got a really fun post on the newsletter today about the religious beliefs of CLERGY.

This question asks about religious beliefs.

98% of Black Protestant clergy believe in God without a doubt.

Evangelicals: 89%
Catholics: 85%
Mainline: 70%

2024 Election Post-Mortem: Latter-day Saints Are young Mormons abandoning the GOP?

Lots of analysis today about the LDS vote.

I spent some extra time trying to sort out how younger LDS feel about politics.

Just 31% of young LDS voted for Trump in 2020.
It was 56% in 2024.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

How would I describe Latter-day Saints politically?

Clearly Republicans.

They were hesitant to go full MAGA back in 2016.

But a whole bunch of them warmed to Trump in 2020 and 2024.

It's hard to know the 'default' distribution of LDS votes, though.

Maybe ~70% GOP.

The share of Catholics who attend Mass weekly in 2008 vs 2024, by age.

18-35: +11
36-44: +5
45-54: -5
55-64: -13
65+: -21

2024 Marks Another Chapter in the SBC’s Long Slide The Slow-Motion Collapse of America’s Largest Protestant Denomination

My annual assessment of the state of the Southern Baptist Convention, right before their annual meeting.

You can try and spin it however you want - but the data doesn't lie:

The negative trends far, far outweigh the positive ones.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-marks...

Let me help you all contextualize just how bad the Southern Baptist Convention's membership losses are.

They have shed ~3.6M members since 2006.

The entire Assemblies of God is 2.98M.
The ELCA is 2.9M
Lutheran Church - MO Synod is 1.7M
American Baptists are 1.2M

2024 Election Post-Mortem: Black Americans, Religion and the Vote Is there evidence of a racial realignment in the data?

I try to explain Black Americans, religion, and the vote in the 2024 election.

I do believe there is some evidence of a slight shift toward the GOP, but it's certainly not overwhelming evidence at this point.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/2024-elect...

Black Christians are much more socially moderate than the the average Democrat.

24 points more likely to want to ban abortion pills in the mail.

20 points more likely to support a ban on gender transition for minors.

30 points more likely to support school vouchers

You know that narrative that is out there about a religious revival among Gen Z?

I get asked about it a lot.

This is brand new data from the General Social Survey (released yesterday).

Gen Z are the least likely to be weekly attenders.
The most likely to be never attenders.

Couple things.

That first graph is a measure of religious attendance.

That second graph is a measure of religious affiliation.

It's different surveys, too.

They come to different conclusions.

Polling young people is very hard.

62% of white evangelicals have watched Fox News in the past 24 hours.

Just 16% of atheists have watched Fox.

Meanwhile, 48% of atheists have watched MSNBC.

Just 13% of white evangelicals have watched MSNBC.

Does Education Have the Same Impact on Church Attendance in Europe and the U.S.? If there’s anything I know will get a lot of engagement on social media it’s the simple relationship between education and religious attendance.

I controlled for age, income, and gender in models here.

Relationship is exactly the same.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/does-educa...

Does Education Have the Same Impact on Church Attendance in Europe and the U.S.? If there’s anything I know will get a lot of engagement on social media it’s the simple relationship between education and religious attendance.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/does-educa...

Here's a really interesting oddity in the data.

In the United States, education is positively related to religious attendance.

More educated people are more religiously active.

In Europe, it's the exact opposite.

It's a bit of a puzzle, really.

How Many Americans Are Actually Spiritual But Not Religious? Why “Spiritual But Not Religious” Might Be More Niche Than You Think

Anyway, new post where I try to sort out this "SBNR" thing.

www.graphsaboutreligion.com/p/how-many-a...

From what I can see in the data, the idea that there's this huge rise in people who are highly spiritual but not at all religious is just way, way overblown.

It was only 4% of the population in 2022.