Thom Rawson

Here in the Pitch Jessica Pratt · Album · 2024 · 9 songs

Thanks to all collaborators on this project.

This manuscript was written almost entirely to the sound of "Here in the Pitch" by Jessica Pratt. Beautiful album I can strongly recommend.

open.spotify.com/album/3sxWkh...

Engagement with the farming community has been a big problem. The previous administration implemented a free milk testing programme - any farm can get their milk tested for H5N1 for free! Over 36,000 dairy herds in the country, how many do you think signed up for testing? Answer - 75...

There's been one national intervention - testing cows that move from one state to another (no federal restrictions on movements within a state!). Our study shows that this has simply not been enough, and will have only prevent a small number of additional outbreaks.

Based on the movement data, we would expect a lot more herd outbreaks, in a lot more states. The vast majority of outbreaks have been in California. Is California just unlucky? No, they're simply identifying more outbreaks. Wisconsin and Florida in particular are particularly bizarre omissions.

Our modelling paper synthesises data on the movement of cattle across the country. Dairy cows get moved around A LOT. By moving infected cattle from one state to another, cows are infecting new herds in new states via shared milking equipment.

We discovered this is just the tip of the iceberg...

A mathematical model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle - Nature Communications Influenza A H5N1 is an increasing concern in cattle herds in the United States. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to estimate the size of the current epidemic, predict states at risk in the...

Super thrilled to say our study "A Mathematical Model of H5N1 influenza transmission in US dairy cattle" is now live in Nature Comms.

doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-59554-z

Within days of being identified, cases of H5N1 in cows were popping up all over the US, how was it spreading so quickly? 🧵

H.H.S. Scraps Studies of Vaccines and Treatments for Future Pandemics Federal officials cited the end of the Covid-19 pandemic in halting the research. But much of the work was focused on preventing outbreaks of other pathogens.

Feels like people are putting a lot of faith in the fact that pandemics are rare events, often — though not always — with multiple decades between them.
Nature doesn't work on a schedule. We assume it does at our peril. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/h...

🚨 New paper on ArXiv:

“Uncertainty quantification and posterior sampling for network reconstruction”

TL;DR; We present an efficient method to sample the entire ensemble of possible network reconstructions that are compatible with an indirect observation, e.g. a dynamics.

Short thread: 1/N

Especially stoked with this week's episode of #ScienceInContext where the roles were reversed and Ryan O'Hare interviewed me about our work on the policy impact of the @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social #COVID19 Response Team

YouTube video by MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis Ep 114. Science in Context - Malaria nets with Prof Thomas Churcher (24-01-2025

NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with prof @thomaschurcher.bsky.social about the recent World Malaria report, #malaria control interventions, modelling and bed nets 👇
youtu.be/B0spuTWEF2c

We've been running this short course for around 30 years now, while constantly updating to the cutting edge of techniques. Please do circulate to any and all interested parties, and drop me a message if you have any questions!

I spoke with The I Paper just before Christmas about the continued threat of H5N1 bird flu; how unexpected the jump to cows was; and the many blind spots that exist in our understanding of pathogen "crossover".

Bob Dylan's "Desire". Got it for 50p from an Oxfam Music when I was 16! It was two years until I had anything to play it on...

Not unexpected given wild bird migrations, but didn't expect this headline!

NEW EPISODE #ScienceInContext! This week @eonore.bsky.social speaks with Patrick Doohan about Lassa fever: historic outbreaks, mathematical models & disease parameters. Why is a comprehensive overview informing future real-time analysis of Lassa outbreaks so important?
youtu.be/dZgtOgDyIUs

I've been using this data source which puts it at 1117 dairy farms total in California as of 2022. Approaching the 50% mark!
(www.nass.usda.gov/Publications...)

Awesome session yesterday at the first ever #London #Infection & #Ecology Network (LIEN) seminar. Met some great people, heard some terrific talks, and got to see this very cool geological map of London.

Getting 365 people together in one room could only be for {A birthday, A funeral, A corporate team building exercise}. Therefore the probability is 33.33%

JI Symposium - Climate Change & Health

Here's a link to that episode:
open.spotify.com/episode/52cO...

Storm Bert: forecasters and politicians criticised after devastating floods Critics claim warnings and defences were inadequate but Met Office says storm was ‘well forecast’

"Forecasters criticised".

As Prof. Ralf Toumi explained in our climate and health #podcast episode - extreme weather due to climate change is incredibly hard to predict. It's not just damaging, but we can't accurately predict it!

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024...

this is why the most powerful undergraduate degree you can get is in film. learning how to properly watch a movie about a job means you can convincingly do the job when the time comes

I've been seeing this "risk increases 5-fold this winter" stat a lot. H5N1 obviously a big threat, but this specific stat is very misleading.

That is a five-fold increase compared to the summer, and based on a non-peer-reviewed model. Basically just "more flu in winter".

Didn't feel a thing during this year's #flu shot. Asked the doctor why some shots hurt more than others. She explained the trick is about finding "...the juiciest part of the muscle."

Your talk was excellent Helena! Really engaging presentation and really impactful work. Thanks for sharing :)

Lassa fever outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters: a systematic review and meta-analysis Understanding the epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics of Lassa fever, a significant public health threat in west Africa caused by the…

A group of us have been working on creating a repository of models and epidemiological parameters ready-to-use in future epidemics, with a focus on high-threat pathogens. Today our Lassa review is out: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti.... More on the overall project here: bit.ly/imperial-PERG

Pennsylvania will now require precautionary bulk testing of milk for bird flu from dairy farms as an added measure to prevent the spread of H5N1 bird flu, according to Agriculture Secretary Russell Redding.

Rachael talks of dozens and dozens of WhatsApp groups linking clinicians across Gaza, Syria, Ukraine sharing the most needed information. How to operate under generator power. How to conduct surgeries without anaesthetic. Etc.
We can't risk silencing local voices. 3/3

Responses from HICs "rooted in colonial architecture". HIC experts might parachute in for short stints, when these skill sets are just not relevant to the particular challenges. Instead need to focus on supporting and facilitating peer-to-peer expertise. 2/3

Key point from Sian White (UK Humanitarian Innovation Hub). "The way we behave as humanitarians can have lasting impact to strengthen or weaken..." 1/3