Rob Schmied

Rob Schmied

@robschmied.bsky.social

Investor, Trader, Former Investment Banker and CFO. Skeptical about most things. And an occasional whale video in season. Scottsdale and Maui.

489 Followers 247 Following 20 Posts Joined Nov 2023
3 weeks ago

Its all @niedermeyer.online Surprised his excellent blog hasn’t received more attention.

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1 month ago
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Imagine the surprise when you are deeply in love and get an invoice from Jean Luc Brunel for the woman of your dreams…..priceless stuff.

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1 month ago

Got it. I meant the son should spill the beans and profit. He just seemed naive and in love, but perhaps he has unclean hands also. Great work.

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1 month ago

Fink should just take a massive short position and spill the beans.

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1 month ago

So the reason Kimbal hasn’t resigned yet is that if what you are suggesting is true, then Elon would need to follow suit if ultimately proven to be true. Are we one redaction away from the ultimate key man risk materializing?

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1 month ago

New blog post: Musk-Epstein: Year One

niedermeyer.online/2026/02/10/m...

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10 months ago

This madness won't end until Trump supports Hamas buying US Steel $X

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10 months ago

10-Q does outline the directors settlement of $277m received and $176m paid to lawyers....

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10 months ago

*$450m, not $550m.

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10 months ago

5. Net Inc was exactly $420m (haha)

6. D&A lower (counterintuitive) although I believe they use Units of Prod method for some plants (Berlin?)

7. Inventory probably needs impairment

8. No impact from the Director settlement (proxy info by 4/30)

9. Nothing for Tornetta yet

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10 months ago

3. Other non-current assets rose by $750m in the quarter. Total approaches $5b. They list some of the components throughout, but over half is unexplained. Deserves a schedule.

4. Construction in Progress jumped over $500m in the quarter, total $7.3b.

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10 months ago

2. Max exposure under RVG increased by $550m in the quarter, up to $1.9b. Have recorded zero reserves for this. Using their old 50% of original price guarantee metric, this suggests over $1b of auto sales were under RVG deals, or over 8%.

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10 months ago

Tesla 10-Q items of note....

1. "the Company’s Board of Directors has established a Special Committee to consider certain compensation matters involving Mr. Musk"

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11 months ago

The other big point is that X already owned between 15%-20% of xAI (initially 25% but has been diluted). So assume it is now 15%. Following this deal, the X shareholders will own 29%. So they sold out the economics of the Twitter business for (only) 14% of a massively overinflated startup.

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11 months ago

Dan McCrum (of Wirecard fame) sniffing around Tesla accounting. He stopped short of tying this directly to the miraculous 3Q earnings beat, when they likely capitalized significant items that should have been expensed, that led to a 50% two-week rally. Tesla makes no comment, no surprise.

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1 year ago

"Elon's Q" hit an all time high of 7 today

Elon's Q is the ratio of:

Tesla's market cap loss since Inauguration /
Estimated DOGE savings

Imagine saving the US government a dollar and losing 7 dollars doing it. That isn't very efficient.

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1 year ago

I would not have expected any prior disclosures regarding this, although it is possible it appears in an updated risk factor in the future or perhaps in proxy disclosure regarding his responsibilities.

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1 year ago

🫡

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1 year ago
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1 year ago
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1 year ago
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Good first day on the water in Maui.

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