Ben Ascione

How Sana-mania swept Japan Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory, powered by personal popularity and digital savvy, now faces the hard test of governing

My analysis of how PM Takaichi won Japan’s election: a nationalist narrative, personal popularity and digital savvy. But lofty promises of strategic investment and national strength now face the constraints of fiscal reality and intensifying great power competition
eastasiaforum.org/2026/02/15/h...

As Trump 2.0 hollows out US state capacity, the Asia Pacific must prepare for a world without US leadership

LDP 196 + Ishin 35 = 231. So the other six votes for Takaichi presumably came from 改革の会 (3), 減税保守 (2), and one independent?

Takaichi cites Thatcher as her political hero. But Takaichi's economic policy won't resemble Thatcher's. As an Abe apostle she is basically promoting Abenomics (fiscal stimulus and monetary easing)

Pressure from LDP nationalists & rising Sanseito threaten Ishiba's hold on power. But scandals still weaken Ishiba's LDP rivals & opposition parties are too divided to challenge him. China policy & immigration reform show how Japanese politics is paralysed.

2/2

Japan’s political house of cards Japanese politics is locked in a stalemate, with the ruling party not strong enough to govern effectively and the opposition too weak to change the status quo

Our latest East Asia Forum editorial

Japan's political house of cards: PM Ishiba clings to power despite losing majorities in both houses. A fragile equilibrium emerges #JapanPolitics 🧵

eastasiaforum.org/2025/09/01/j...

Funnily, the survey was conducted in March before the so-called "Liberation Day" tariff chaos... So the downward trend has probably intensified

Trump’s America First leaves Australia behind Australia has to face the possibility that the United States under Trump is part of the problem rather than the solution to Australia’s imagined strategic problems and economic future

Trump is part of the problem rather than the reflexive solution to Australia's strategic and economic challenges. Australia should develop closer ties with regional neighbours and hedge between great powers rather than remain hostage to erratic US foreign policy
eastasiaforum.org/2025/07/09/t...

South Koreans vote for democracy While his victory in the presidential election is an immediate win for South Korean democracy, Lee Jae-myung must now confront both domestic and international political challenges

a little late in getting out, but my latest, on the Korean election, for East Asia Forum.
eastasiaforum.org/2025/06/08/s...

Working link here: inews.co.uk/opinion/trum...

Yoon’s impeachment is just the start of stabilising South Korea’s democracy Despite the Constitutional Court’s verdict strengthening democratic stability and curbing overt political instability, internal political struggles are far from over.

The Constitutional Court’s verdict to impeach ROK President Yoon strengthens democratic stability and curbs overt political instability, but internal political struggles are far from over, writes Hannah Kim.
eastasiaforum.org/2025/04/11/y...

The US spins out of control, into an economic world of its own With the US making clear its desire to economically disengage from the world, the Asia-Pacific region needs to develop a collective response to a new wave of protectionism.

With the US making clear its desire to economically disengage from the world, the Asia-Pacific region needs to develop a collective response to a new wave of protectionism
eastasiaforum.org/2025/04/07/t...

You might as well divide the numbers of apples in your kitchen by the number of bagels and use it to calculate your mortgage rate. To criticise [Trump's tariff calculations] on political or economic grounds is too generous. It operates below the level of rational thought.
inews.co.uk/opinion/trum...

"Almost everything Mr Trump said this week—on history, economics and the technicalities of trade—was utterly deluded. His reading of history is upside down"

It is depressing how apt this is...

Exclusive: Captured North Korean soldiers speak out on deployment to Russia Exclusive: Captured North Korean soldiers speak out on deployment to Russia

Incredible exclusive interview by South Korea's Chosun Ilbo (from Kyiv) of the two North Koreans captured in Kursk.
www.chosun.com/english/nort...

DOGE: Dangerous Oligarchs Grab Everything What Marc Andreessen revealed about the tech-industrial complex

New, from me: as the Trump administration begins, I try to make sense of what, exactly, DOGE is.

Journalists and policymakers should be skeptical of its claim to be a govt reform commission, and more willing to see it as a form of oligarchic state capture.
donmoynihan.substack.com/p/doge-dange...

South Korea’s Yoon Suk Yeol arrested, investigators say, after hours-long standoff at residence Impeached president detained over failed December martial law bid a month after a first attempt ended in stalemate

YOON ARRESTED. LATEST. AND MORE COMING SOON
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/j...

South Korea’s Constitution Needs Fixing | by Yoon Young-kwan - Project Syndicate Yoon Young-kwan argues that breaking the cycle of political crises will require some fundamental reforms.

Good quick over view of South Korea’s “imperial presidency,” what causes it, and why it must be reformed.

www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/s...

How South Korea’s president sealed his own downfall Yoon Suk Yeol’s party offered him the chance of a dignified exit but he chose to double down on his martial law gambit * South Korean parliament votes to impeach president * What happens next after vote to impeach South Korea’s president? For…

How South Korea’s president sealed his own downfall

South Korean president vows to ‘never give up’ after impeachment vote Yoon Suk Yeol has been suspended in the wake of his failed attempt to impose martial law

1/ 🚨 Yoon is now out of office. What happens (or should happen) now? A thread.
www.ft.com/content/12c6...

South Korea currently has a “Schrödinger’s President.” Yoon is either the president or not. Whether he holds presidential power can only be determined through impeachment.

South Korea’s leadership unclear as Yoon struggles to retain power South Korea’s defense ministry insisted that President Yoon Suk Yeol remained in charge of the country’s armed forces on Monday, even as the justice ministry enforced a travel ban against him followin...

As we begin another day of political uncertainty in Seoul,

- It's still unclear who is running what in the country
- No details about any power sharing arrangement that allegedly exists
- We don't know the legal rationale for any such deal
- The presidential office has essentially gone dark

A Declaration of Political Scientists of South Korea A Declaration by Political Scientists of South Korea Call for an Immediate Reintroduction and the Passage of the Impeachment Bill to Restore the Constitutional Order The emergency martial law declar...

573 political scientists in and out of Korea have written and signed a declaration calling for Yoon's immediate impeachment. I've translated it into English with Prof. Jeong Hyun Kim at Yonsei:

docs.google.com/document/d/1...

573 Korean political science scholars have issued a public statement declaring that Yoon's impeachment is the only way to resolve the current situation. They have 4 demands:

1. Resubmit an impeachment motion in the National Assembly
...

Wrong headline, NYT. Should read: Impeachment Vote Foiled by Boycott from Yoon's Allies.

Ruling party refused to hold the President accountable for what most South Koreans believe was an act of treason. That's the ruling party's failure -- not the opposition's.

What is a self-coup? South Korea president’s attempt ended in failure − a notable exception in a growing global trend There have been 46 attempted self-coups since the end of World War II – 80% have succeeded. So what went wrong for South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol?

What is a self-coup? South Korea president’s attempt ended in failure − a notable exception in a growing global trend theconversation.com/what-is-a-se...

"If the sudden declaration of martial law – the first order of its kind since the 1980s – was intended to restore his grip on power then it was a stunning error in political judgement.

The fact that it was blocked within hours is a testament to the robustness of South Korea’s young democracy."

‘Political suicide’: South Korean leader seals his demise President Yoon Suk Yeol conceded defeat before sunrise, but his drastic actions may have already sealed his own political downfall.

Longer analysis of how South Korea’s political firestorm also revealed the strength of its democracy. Insights from Duyeon Kim, Leif-Eric Easley, @dpinkston.bsky.social

thenightly.com.au/politics/wor...