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Kevin Bonham

@kevinbonham.bsky.social

Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.

6,320 Followers  |  210 Following  |  4,066 Posts  |  Joined: 06.07.2023  |  1.8284

Latest posts by kevinbonham.bsky.social on Bluesky

Selena Uibo (15 months) is Australia's most senior Opposition Leader! Steven Miles (13 months) is second and all of the others have changed since this March!

05.12.2025 10:29 β€” πŸ‘ 14    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
SA Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia says he is 'not bitter' as he steps down from leadership South Australian Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia will step down from the leadership, just three months out from the next state election. He told a press conference he made the decision on Friday morning...

And another one gone and another one gone ... the 4th leader of the golden age of bad oppositions to depart in four weeks!

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...

05.12.2025 10:24 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
SA Opposition Leader Vincent Tarzia says he is 'not bitter' as he steps down from leadership South Australian Liberal leader Vincent Tarzia will step down from the leadership, just three months out from the next state election. He told a press conference he made the decision on Friday morning...

And another one gone and another one gone ... the 4th leader of the golden age of bad oppositions to depart in four weeks! www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...

05.12.2025 10:23 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0

In fact in the last Senate election more Tas voters put Lambie ahead of Liberals than vice versa, not only statewide but in all five electorates.

04.12.2025 22:58 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

see archive.md/Klr2i

04.12.2025 22:24 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Looking at the Votes and Proceedings Webb herself tried to adjourn it.

04.12.2025 03:31 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

There is a very long history of Liberal rank and file meetings being hotbeds for cluelessness about Hare-Clark and in this case the Senate electoral system as well. It is embarrassing and needs to end.

03.12.2025 21:48 β€” πŸ‘ 13    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The motion that was passed should be rescinded and the Liberal Party should pass a new motion that no motions regarding the electoral system shall be passed without first seeking public comment on the accuracy or otherwise of the claims regarding the system being made.

03.12.2025 21:45 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The Premier has issued an apology over disgraceful comments by a Liberal Party member regarding Craig Garland. Commendable but I would go further. The member should be required by the party to apologise personally, or failing that expelled.

#politas

www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmani...

03.12.2025 21:43 β€” πŸ‘ 22    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0

Er what, LegCo stadium debate is still on at 1 am! Why have they not adjourned? #politas

03.12.2025 14:05 β€” πŸ‘ 11    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1
Preview
Coalition has 'no confidence' social media ban will work under Labor Opposition Leader Sussan Ley says Australia's social media ban will not work under Labor, as the federal government rejects YouTube's claim it will make kids "less safe".

Party that mostly voted for the Whichever Leopard Wins The Election Eats Teen Social Media In A Terrible Hurry Bill has no confidence that the other leopard can eat teen social media properly. It's on you if they can't, dimwits. You voted for it!

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...

03.12.2025 12:29 β€” πŸ‘ 26    πŸ” 8    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It's not as bad as SA but this is still pretty feeble polling for the WA conservatives.

Also note Cook net +8, Zempilas net -3. Reasonable ratings for Zempilas but opposition as a whole not yet competitive #wapol

03.12.2025 12:05 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It looks like the vote on the stadium will be 9-5 in favour #politas

03.12.2025 08:02 β€” πŸ‘ 23    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 5    πŸ“Œ 0

Casey Hiscutt has said some things that rather strongly indicate he is voting in favour too.

02.12.2025 22:54 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Indeed even if Dean Harriss votes no, would need Tania Rattray or Casey Hiscutt to vote no as well, either of which would be rather surprising, to even get it to 7-7. So it definitely looks like passing.

02.12.2025 22:20 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Stadium debate starting in #LegCo today. With Bec Thomas announcing support it seems highly likely the stadium order at least has the numbers to get to a casting vote. #politas

02.12.2025 22:14 β€” πŸ‘ 12    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 1

#Redbridge/Accent ALP 35 L-NP 26 Grn 10 ON 18 other 11. This is a different poll (Nov 7-26) to partly overlapping in time poll which also had ON 18.

Their 2PP 54-46 to ALP, my estimate 54.5

02.12.2025 12:00 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Victoria's Electoral Matters committee has released its report on electoral structure. It restates a previous recommendation to abolish Group Ticket Voting before the 2026 election and also recommends a process to seek agreement on structure. #springst

www.parliament.vic.gov.au/4ad9a5/conte...

02.12.2025 11:07 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

#DemosAU (MRP) ALP 33 L-NP 24 Grn 13 ON 17 Ind/Other 13

2PP 56-44 to ALP

5 Oct - 11 Nov.

demosau.com/wp-content/u...

02.12.2025 09:38 β€” πŸ‘ 18    πŸ” 4    πŸ’¬ 6    πŸ“Œ 1

A note re #Hinchinbrook - it is almost certainly NOT the case that One Nation's decision to recommend preferences to the LNP caused the LNP to win the seat. The follow rate for One Nation how to vote cards is nowhere near high enough for it to be so.

01.12.2025 23:19 β€” πŸ‘ 19    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Yes, "a figure other than 2" is also accepted in that case. I would expect "figure" to be interpreted to mean a numeral or something signifying a numeral, eg 1 and 3 is formal, but 1 and tick or 1 and cross are not. Non-issue these days as there has not been a two-candidate election for decades.

01.12.2025 23:11 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

It is hard to say but it is pretty likely CG would win a seat around the Wynyard area depending on where the boundaries were drawn.

01.12.2025 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
COMMONWEALTH ELECTORAL ACT 1918 - SECT 268 Informal ballot papers

The exemption only explicitly covers the box being "blank". classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth...

01.12.2025 22:03 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I may write an article on that soon if time permits.

01.12.2025 21:59 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

No. I've just done it as if all Labor candidates were ruled ineligible post-election.

01.12.2025 21:58 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Suppose the voter numbered the candidates 3,.,1,4,2,5,7,6. I would assume such a voter did not intend to express a last preference for the second candidate listed but was in fact a bored mathematician making a joke about approximating pi.

01.12.2025 01:51 β€” πŸ‘ 16    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I do not agree with their agreed view, I agree with the AEC's. The AEC uses such cases as an example in their formality guidelines. If the Parliament wants to make ""1,2,3,4,5,6,7,." and related cases formal it can do so.

01.12.2025 01:49 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

A point of electoral law interest is that the parties agreed that a vote of the form "1,2,3,4,5,6,7,.", ie with a dot in place of the candidate who the voter would otherwise place last, is formal, contra to AEC interpretation. However their agreed view was not tested.

01.12.2025 01:41 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 0
Kapterian v Boele (Costs) [2025] FCA 1472

Costs ruling here. Good stuff. www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Ju...

01.12.2025 01:38 β€” πŸ‘ 10    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Gisele Kapterian must pay Nicolette Boele's costs following her withdrawn CDR petition against the result in #Bradfield.

01.12.2025 01:32 β€” πŸ‘ 42    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 1

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