Kevin Bonham

May very well be he ends up voted out but what else is he seriously supposed to do right at this point? Muck about for the rest of the week and put the Governor under time pressure?

Rockliff to visit Governor in next 48 hours. Correct to do so in my view. He's not looking like getting 18 on signed C+S, nor is Labor, get on with being recommissioned to meet the House and bringing Parliament back. #politas

www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmani...

I wonder if Campbell likes the result in Franklin 2018 by his method.

Liberals 48.4% 1 seat, Labor 34.4% 3 seats, Greens 14.4% 1 seat.

Excellent! #politas

not serious, a few people on social media

Amusingly as the Campbell method applies to the 2024 election the result is almost the same as what happened (14-10-4-4-3) but with Bass and Braddon each getting two JLNs because of the even vote split in their ticket.

Of course as with any analysis of FPTP systems Campbell makes the blunder of assuming that if the system was different parties and voters would campaign the same; obviously they would not and in particular parties would run fewer candidates.

Another extremely silly letter by Barry Campbell in the Kingborough Chronicle. If only the primary vote leaders had been returned in 2021 Gutwein would not have had a majority government (11-8-3-2-1 with Carlo Di Falco getting in early by seven votes!) #politas

'Basic maths': Greens say Winter has to negotiate if he wants to be premier With 10 seats, Labor's Dean Winter is still vying for power, but continues refusing discussions with the Greens. Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Jeremy Rockliff says he's about to formally ask the governor ...

Greens here say they will not give away confidence and supply for a full term without negotiation (nor should they) #politas
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08...

A 1989 precedent shows a possible outcome for Tasmania's new parliament For Tasmanians wondering when they might have a parliament in place and some certainty about who will have the support to govern, it could still be weeks off. However, the official process is already ...

A correction here, Gray did not in fact request an election from the Governor. He told the Governor that he had advice he could do so. The Governor said such advice would be unlikely to be accepted. The advice was then never given. #politas

www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08...

George Razay says he will support whoever can form government but doesn't say how he will decide that if it actually comes down to him; seems he likes to not telegraph his decisions #politas

YouTube video by Constitutional Clarion Tasmanian Caretaker Conventions - The Marinus Link Dispute

Article also huffs and puffs about caretaker conventions but I suggest everyone ignores that and goes and watches this instead www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUlk...

"Major party support is declining: Labor has recorded its lowest primary vote; the Liberals have not regained ground." FWIW there was a swing to the Liberals even if they didn't gain seats and a combined (but extremely artificial) 0.06% swing to the majors.

Factual howler by Michael Stuckey in The Australian; if they can't bother to edit material with basic errors they could at least not publish it. "For the third time in two years, Tasmania has returned a hung parliament" Second time actually. #politas

I'm really not sure what switching to 7x5 would be supposed to accomplish.

7x5 would reduce the informal voting rate somewhat but this could and definitely should be done under 5x7 by bringing in savings provisions.

The near overlap with federal boundaries (in places) would cause confusion. 5-member seats are not as proportional as 7 and we would lose some diversity without getting a system that was much easier for major parties to operate in.

The TEC released this advice on the alternative. They found it would require the TEC to have its own boundaries process at considerable expense. It would probably also result in a division boundary cutting through Hobart www.tec.tas.gov.au/info/pdf/Adv...

Have seen a few people on social media saying that Tasmania should switch from the current 5x7 member system to 7x5 so this thread is to say why we should not. #politas

Prof Baker's daughter is no less than the incumbent Governor. Bob Baker wasn't Attorney-General; that was Henry Baker (unrelated?)

A previous Professor MP has been found: Bob Baker (Liberal, Denison 1969-1980) was a Professor of Law at Utas pre parliament. #politas

(HT CArchWilliams on twitter)

And? The five indies elected were three incumbents, a very prominent ex-journo who ran in the federal election and a councillor who is a famous geriatrician. Only 7/44 indies topped 1000 votes, 32 got under 500, the unknown indies did NOT get votes, same as last time, exactly as I said!

1897 was the first Hare-Clark election, a trial in Hobart and Launceston only that was repeated in 1900. Then after a brief relapse of FPTP, Hare-Clark became statewide in 1909..

Tasmania 2025: Just As Hung But More Polarised Tasmanian and Australian psephology, opinion poll analysis, election analysis and political commentary by Dr Kevin Bonham.

kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2025/08/tasm... Tasmania 2025: Just As Hung But More Polarised

Election review, poll performance etc #politas

I cannot find any previous examples of a professor being elected to Tasmanian parliament. #politas

Lowest ever independent winning vote share - progression of record

1897 W. Pace 8.6%
1900 W. Guesdon 7.9%
1925 J. Piggott 7.5%
1934 B. Pearsall 7.3%
2024 C. Garland 5.1%
2025 G. RAZAY 3.5%

#politas

#politas election finished
Lib 14 (=)
ALP 10 (=)
Grn 5 (=)
IND 5 (+2)
SF+F 1 (+1)

(numbers compared to 2024 election, one MP elected as JLN at that election recontested as IND, 2 as Nat)

#Bass count over, candidates elected
6 George Razay (IND)
7 Jess Greene (ALP)
#politas

Labor has kept two candidates in the race at four exclusions where they were last on quota totals because of the even split between their candidates but their luck on that front looks likely to run out.

Final act in #Bass - throw of 4660 votes ex Shooters Fishers and Farmers (but 40% of those came from other sources). Jess Greene (ALP) leads Geoff Lyons (ALP) by 347. Lyons leads George Razay (IND) by 646. The top two after this distribution win. #politas

Jacinta Price says she could be forced out of Senate due to court fight The firebrand senator has warned she could be bankrupted over a press release she sent last year.

Jacinta Price is being sued for defamation. Her being bankrupted over this is a nothing-ever-happens; if it becomes a serious prospect donations from culture war right will easily cover it.

www.smh.com.au/national/jac...