Selena Uibo (15 months) is Australia's most senior Opposition Leader! Steven Miles (13 months) is second and all of the others have changed since this March!
05.12.2025 10:29 β π 14 π 4 π¬ 0 π 0@kevinbonham.bsky.social
Psephologist, polling analyst and poll transparency advocate, political commentator, ecologist, chess player/admin. No party loyalties. Not-A-Pollster.
Selena Uibo (15 months) is Australia's most senior Opposition Leader! Steven Miles (13 months) is second and all of the others have changed since this March!
05.12.2025 10:29 β π 14 π 4 π¬ 0 π 0And another one gone and another one gone ... the 4th leader of the golden age of bad oppositions to depart in four weeks!
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
And another one gone and another one gone ... the 4th leader of the golden age of bad oppositions to depart in four weeks! www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
05.12.2025 10:23 β π 19 π 4 π¬ 2 π 0In fact in the last Senate election more Tas voters put Lambie ahead of Liberals than vice versa, not only statewide but in all five electorates.
04.12.2025 22:58 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0see archive.md/Klr2i
04.12.2025 22:24 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Looking at the Votes and Proceedings Webb herself tried to adjourn it.
04.12.2025 03:31 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0There is a very long history of Liberal rank and file meetings being hotbeds for cluelessness about Hare-Clark and in this case the Senate electoral system as well. It is embarrassing and needs to end.
03.12.2025 21:48 β π 13 π 3 π¬ 0 π 0The motion that was passed should be rescinded and the Liberal Party should pass a new motion that no motions regarding the electoral system shall be passed without first seeking public comment on the accuracy or otherwise of the claims regarding the system being made.
03.12.2025 21:45 β π 11 π 2 π¬ 1 π 0The Premier has issued an apology over disgraceful comments by a Liberal Party member regarding Craig Garland. Commendable but I would go further. The member should be required by the party to apologise personally, or failing that expelled.
#politas
www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmani...
Er what, LegCo stadium debate is still on at 1 am! Why have they not adjourned? #politas
03.12.2025 14:05 β π 11 π 0 π¬ 3 π 1Party that mostly voted for the Whichever Leopard Wins The Election Eats Teen Social Media In A Terrible Hurry Bill has no confidence that the other leopard can eat teen social media properly. It's on you if they can't, dimwits. You voted for it!
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12...
It's not as bad as SA but this is still pretty feeble polling for the WA conservatives.
Also note Cook net +8, Zempilas net -3. Reasonable ratings for Zempilas but opposition as a whole not yet competitive #wapol
It looks like the vote on the stadium will be 9-5 in favour #politas
03.12.2025 08:02 β π 23 π 3 π¬ 5 π 0Casey Hiscutt has said some things that rather strongly indicate he is voting in favour too.
02.12.2025 22:54 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0Indeed even if Dean Harriss votes no, would need Tania Rattray or Casey Hiscutt to vote no as well, either of which would be rather surprising, to even get it to 7-7. So it definitely looks like passing.
02.12.2025 22:20 β π 6 π 2 π¬ 1 π 0Stadium debate starting in #LegCo today. With Bec Thomas announcing support it seems highly likely the stadium order at least has the numbers to get to a casting vote. #politas
02.12.2025 22:14 β π 12 π 5 π¬ 4 π 1#Redbridge/Accent ALP 35 L-NP 26 Grn 10 ON 18 other 11. This is a different poll (Nov 7-26) to partly overlapping in time poll which also had ON 18.
Their 2PP 54-46 to ALP, my estimate 54.5
Victoria's Electoral Matters committee has released its report on electoral structure. It restates a previous recommendation to abolish Group Ticket Voting before the 2026 election and also recommends a process to seek agreement on structure. #springst
www.parliament.vic.gov.au/4ad9a5/conte...
#DemosAU (MRP) ALP 33 L-NP 24 Grn 13 ON 17 Ind/Other 13
2PP 56-44 to ALP
5 Oct - 11 Nov.
demosau.com/wp-content/u...
A note re #Hinchinbrook - it is almost certainly NOT the case that One Nation's decision to recommend preferences to the LNP caused the LNP to win the seat. The follow rate for One Nation how to vote cards is nowhere near high enough for it to be so.
01.12.2025 23:19 β π 19 π 2 π¬ 0 π 0Yes, "a figure other than 2" is also accepted in that case. I would expect "figure" to be interpreted to mean a numeral or something signifying a numeral, eg 1 and 3 is formal, but 1 and tick or 1 and cross are not. Non-issue these days as there has not been a two-candidate election for decades.
01.12.2025 23:11 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0It is hard to say but it is pretty likely CG would win a seat around the Wynyard area depending on where the boundaries were drawn.
01.12.2025 22:04 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The exemption only explicitly covers the box being "blank". classic.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth...
01.12.2025 22:03 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0I may write an article on that soon if time permits.
01.12.2025 21:59 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0No. I've just done it as if all Labor candidates were ruled ineligible post-election.
01.12.2025 21:58 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Suppose the voter numbered the candidates 3,.,1,4,2,5,7,6. I would assume such a voter did not intend to express a last preference for the second candidate listed but was in fact a bored mathematician making a joke about approximating pi.
01.12.2025 01:51 β π 16 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0I do not agree with their agreed view, I agree with the AEC's. The AEC uses such cases as an example in their formality guidelines. If the Parliament wants to make ""1,2,3,4,5,6,7,." and related cases formal it can do so.
01.12.2025 01:49 β π 6 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0A point of electoral law interest is that the parties agreed that a vote of the form "1,2,3,4,5,6,7,.", ie with a dot in place of the candidate who the voter would otherwise place last, is formal, contra to AEC interpretation. However their agreed view was not tested.
01.12.2025 01:41 β π 8 π 0 π¬ 2 π 0Costs ruling here. Good stuff. www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Ju...
01.12.2025 01:38 β π 10 π 2 π¬ 1 π 0Gisele Kapterian must pay Nicolette Boele's costs following her withdrawn CDR petition against the result in #Bradfield.
01.12.2025 01:32 β π 42 π 7 π¬ 3 π 1