Will Masters

Trends in Diet Quality Among U.S. Adults From 1999 to 2020 by Race, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Disadvantage | Annals of Internal Medicine Background: Few data have assessed trends in diet quality among U.S. adults. Objective: To evaluate trends in diet quality by race, ethnicity, and socioeconomic disadvantage. Design: Repeated cross-se...

Yes that's true - but veg intake is poorly measured, and when prices change there's a lot of substitution among items of different quality. For diet recall, Dary's analysis of NHANES data has time trends to 2020, and the USDA loss-adjusted data is even more granular
www.ers.usda.gov/data-product...

Winter is coming. So are tariff-induced price hikes on tomatoes and other produce. - The Boston Globe A rise in produce prices could be a sign of higher costs to come as President Trump’s tariffs on imported food become more significant.

Having low price, high quality tomatoes depends not only on imports in winter, but also immigrant labor, new technology and market competition. It's the tomato theory of everything!

Thx to @camilo-fonseca.bsky.social for clear reporting on how tariffs limit our access to imported sunshine.

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FRED Graph FRED Graph

For a decade Americans have benefited from a downward trend in the real cost of tomatoes (in red), even more than all fruits & veg (in green), compared to all groceries (in black).

Each is shown controlling for overall inflation, from FRED with updates here: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1MNZ7
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Winter is coming. So are tariff-induced price hikes on tomatoes and other produce. - The Boston Globe A rise in produce prices could be a sign of higher costs to come as President Trump’s tariffs on imported food become more significant.

The tomato theory of everything

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Food Intelligence by Julia Belluz, Kevin Hall, PhD: 9780593332306 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books “Food Intelligence dispels many popular myths we have about weight loss and breaks down the real drivers of the obesity crisis based on decades of research. I really hope everyone gets a chance to...

Just finished the superb new book from @juliabelluz.bsky.social and @kevinh-phd.bsky.social.

Crystal clear storytelling about the new science of nutrition, summarizing what we learn at top schools like @tuftsnutrition.bsky.social.

It's a timely antidote to snake oil & vibes--highly recommended!

Exclusive | Trump Administration Cancels Annual Hunger Survey The government has been measuring food insecurity since the mid-1990s but now says the report has become “overly politicized.”

The U.S. food security data to be cancelled by Trump's USDA has been of huge value but is often misunderstood -- and the WSJ piece breaking the news is exceptionally clear about what's at stake

The (mis)use of Google Trends data in the social sciences - A systematic review, critique, and recommendations Researchers increasingly use aggregated search data from Google Trends to study a wide range of phenomena. Although this new data source possesses som…

PS, academic footnote for those interested in the use (and misuse) of Google trends data, a nice article from @floriankeusch.bsky.social and coauthors here:

Chart of Google trends data on the rise and fall of online searches for "vegan" in contrast to "organic" and "vegetarian"

The rise and fall of progressive idealism, as tracked by online search for vegan (vs. organic or vegetarian).

These data are global, you can click to see differences in timing and relative magnitudes here:
trends.google.com/trends/explo...

I'll call this the "Henry Vance Index" of idealism.

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Why the vegans lost Veganism didn’t become less good for us or the planet, so what changed?

Great piece from @henrymance.ft.com on a surprising way in which people have turned away from idealism: fewer online searches for "vegan".

Data in the next post...
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Screenshot of AJCN article

Slide of data showing higher CO2-equivalent emissions from more expensive options within major food groups

Slide of data showing varied or no correlation between retail price and nutritional profile score of widely sold items within major food groups

Big new paper shows limits to the common belief that healthy & sustainable foods are more expensive than other options.

Details: linkedin.com/posts/wamast...
Article:
doi.org/10.1016/j.aj...
Preprint: sites.tufts.edu/foodpricesfo...

From @tuftsnutrition.bsky.social, for #foodsky #econsky #foodecon

It looks like healthy adults under 65 in the U.S. might be barred from getting the updated Covid vaccine for this fall. Here's the latest from my niece Nina Masters' Know Your Vax substack, in response to the story below from Caitlin Rivers @cmyeaton.bsky.social

Marion Nestle just posted a useful roundup of links about the leaked draft MAHA report here:
www.foodpolitics.com/2025/08/http...
So far MAHA is playing out somewhat like Italy's right-wing gastronationalism, which distracts food activists with symbolic stuff so as to give industry gets a free hand.

Selfie with two men on a sailboat on Boston Harbor, with the Boston skyline in the background.

Sailing on Boston Harbor on a breezy summer afternoon with @willmasters.bsky.social, practicing dropping and raising the anchor, and, for conversation, in our imagination, solving global food systems challenges.

Are tariffs to blame for nearly 40% spike in wholesale vegetable prices? Experts weigh in The wholesale-price spike may eventually hike prices for shoppers, experts said.

As ABC News @max-zahn.bsky.social reports, producer prices for vegetables jumped nearly 40% in one month.

Tariffs? Supply hiccups due to immigration crackdown on farm laborers? Weather? Or random noise?

Let's monitor vegetable prices in the next two months to see.

abcnews.go.com/Business/tar...

Remember all of the “food prices are too high” social media posts from 2024?

Grocery price inflation is higher now than it was then

Why are wholesale vegetable prices spiking, and what's that mean for consumers? About a quarter of the 3.3% price increase recorded by this month’s producer price index was driven by a spike in wholesale prices for veggies.

Wholesale prices came in hot in today’s PPI report, but veggies stole the show 🥦📈

Vegetable prices at the wholesale level surged nearly 39% in July. @willmasters.bsky.social & I unpack what’s behind this spike in today's @marketplace.org 🎙️

www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...

Yes indeed, and this page explains how to get the password: sites.tufts.edu/foodeconomic.... Should be quick and helpful to join the elist, and passwords should protect the files from appearing in search and AI training content.

For university courses about #FoodEconomics, a full set of class slides, weekly exercises, & exams is now available for use with the free online textbook from @afinaret.bsky.social and me. Audience is advanced undergrads and first-year grad students using graphical diagrams, examples and global data

FRED Graph FRED Graph

Today's U.S. CPI shows grocery price inflation rising and above 2% year-on-year since March 2025, after the period of low grocery price rises in 2023-24.

This FRED chart shows rise in grocery inflation (green) vs restaurant meals (red) and the overall CPI (blue):
fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1LgBF

This year's #AAEA2025 coincides with launch of the UN system's #SOFI2025 report on The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World.

Beyond diet costs and affordability, this year's report includes new work from @tuftsnutrition.bsky.social and @fao.org on relative cost of different foods:

Yesterday's launch of #SOFI2025 marks the 4th annual update of global diet cost and affordability data published jointly by FAO and the World Bank, used by UN agencies and national governments as a clear and actionable new metric of global food security.

Direct link to the report is here:

Screenshot of the World Bank's Preston Auditorium for the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, July 25th 2025

Big thanks to #ABCDE2025 for an amazing 4 days blending new research with big-picture debate on global development in this era of political change.

Here's their video of my 15-min summary of #FoodPricesForNutrition, on whether & how agriculture can meet health needs:
www.youtube.com/live/AEV4YE1...

Will Masters of Tufts University shows how a well-crafted indicator (in this case, the lowest cost of a healthy diet) can actively inform civil society discussion.

For more, read his paper www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #ABCDE2025

How an M&M Sparked the Search for the Next Perfect Peanut

Great storytelling about agricultural innovation from @kimseverson.bsky.social.

The context is a taxpayer-funded public institution doing modern genetics that helps millions of people, but the story is framed as a branded treat from a cute couple at the bucolic-sounding Wild Peanut Lab. Genius!

Food Intelligence by Julia Belluz, Kevin Hall, PhD: 9780593332306 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books The essential guide for understanding what you’re eating, and the forces that are driving you to eat it. Nutrition isn’t rocket science; it’s harder. There are new diet fads, bold...

Many moons ago, @kevinh-phd.bsky.social and I talked about a book we wished existed. No fads, no weight loss hacks, no fear-mongering -- just the science of how food works in your body. Thrilled to share that we wrote it!
Out September 23, pre-oder here: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/671334...

Thank you Parke!

YouTube video by Parke Wilde Boston Harbor sailing July 2025

‪Learning to sail small open boats for ocean voyaging, propelled by an upbeat vision of prosperity under conditions of sharp decarbonization, here is a video from Boston Harbor yesterday with friends. Film by @willmasters.bsky.social. #ClimateAction
youtu.be/MtBm289wmtU?...

Chart of average temperature and associated emotions expressed in paintings, as measured by "State of the Art: Economic Development Through the Lens of Paintings" by Clément Gorin, Stephan Heblich, and Yanos Zylberberg

Images of artwork and their associated emotions, as measured in the paper entitled "State of the Art: Economic Development Through the Lens of Paintings" by Clément Gorin, Stephan Heblich, and Yanos Zylberberg

New paper links emotions in artwork to socioeconomic conditions over >500 years.

One finding: in W. Europe, paintings got cheerier in the decades after more favorable climatic conditions.

Great big-picture stuff from @heblich.bsky.social, w/ C. Gorin & Y. Zylberberg: www.nber.org/papers/w33976

Screenshot of data from Google Ngrams showing word frequency for use of "least-cost diet", "cost of a healthy diet" and related phrases

Brief review article out today in Food Policy traces the rapid adoption of least-cost diets for monitoring food access.

Paper: authors.elsevier.com/a/1lND015oGp...
Project: sites.tufts.edu/foodpricesfo...

Something new, from @tuftsnutrition.bsky.social + many others as shown by google ngram data:

Yes lots of evidence for your hypothesis -- in rich countries most people have enough money for low cost healthy diets, but other factors pull people to other things instead. Sigh...