Leipzig Institute for Meteorology

11th National Climate Dynamics Workshop UK Climate Dynamics Workshops are annual in-person events aiming to promote collaboration amongst the UK academic sector and the Met Office.

Registration now open for the 11th UK National Climate Dynamics Workshop.

22-24 June at University of Reading. Abstract deadline is 30 April.

www.rmets.org/event/11th-n...

Shows a map of the cooling effect of sulfur emissions - mostly Northern Hemisphere. In general forcings in W/m2 cause about half in degrees of surface warming. This number also holds if recent forcings are compared with recent warming rates. In 2021 we had a net forcing of ~3 W/m2, and reached 1.5 °C in 2023/24. This would also indicate that forcings in W/m2 can be translated into surface warming by dividing it roughly by 2. So 120m tons of sulfur emissions had roughly a cooling effect of -0.5°C. As a comparison SOx reductions from IMO regulations over the shipping routes had been around 8Mt. This is about 1/15 of the 120Mt of annual emissions during 2006-2009 (time of second SOx emission peak). ~1 W/m2 divided by 15 would then translate to a total forcing of about ~0.0666 W/m2 by IMO reductions. This result would imply that IMO reductions caused a temperature increase over time by ~0.034°C. I added a table of Carbon Brief article showing that 0.0666 W/m2 aligns well with the lower estimates of the warming effect of the IMO2020 sulfur regulations. Main question that is still open is if shipping sulfur emissions had a much larger effect over the oceans as the air is more pristine? Currently, I do not know any study that supports that view, but wait here for an assessment... "Optimal choice of proxy for cloud condensation nuclei reduces uncertainty in aerosol-cloud-climate forcing"; https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aea4828

Shows a map of sulfur emissions over time. The period of their study form 2006-2009 aligns with the second emission peak of about 120Mt. Here the carbon article: https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-low-sulphur-shipping-rules-are-affecting-global-warming/ The result from the study: The uncertainty caused by the proxy selection can be constrained by applying the observational scaling factors (δ) presented in Fig. 3 (Fig. 4B). Applying this constraint yields a less negative RFaci (−1.03 W m−2) than the unconstrained case (−1.21 W m−2). The 5 to 95% confidence range is substantially narrowed by ~40% from [−2.74 W m−2, −0.33 W m−2] to [−1.87 W m−2, −0.48 W m−2], thereby reducing the total uncertainty from 66 to 43%. Four years (2006–2009) of the preprocessed data are then used for analysis. This study focuses on the global ocean between 60°S and 60°N due to the limited retrieval quality over land and polar regions.

The forcing from IMO regulations in 2020 - mostly below 0.1 W/m2...

Effect of shipping sulfur reductions and where Dimethyl production in the oceans is important. Question thou how pristine is the oceans atmosphere?

A new observational estimate of sulfur cooling

They estimate it to be during 2006–2009 to be around ~1 W/m2 - a bit lower than previous estimates. During that period we had some 120Mt of annually SOx emissions.

Would be a cooling effect of 120Mt of sulfur by 0.5°C

#climate

The Great Ocean Sync: How Melting Arctic Ice Links the World’s Most Powerful Currents This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Evolving synchronization of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension in a changing climate” by Joh et al. (202…

Have you noticed synchronized SST anomalies between the Pacific and Atlantic in global maps? It’s not a coincidence. According to a new study in Science Advances by Joh et al. (2026), this "oceanic handshake" is directly linked to the retreat of Arctic sea ice. 🌊🧪 ocean2climate.org/2026/03/01/t...

The Arctic’s New Engine: Why the Great Ocean Conveyor Belt is Defying the Warming Trend This blog post and the “Deep Dive” podcast, created by NotebookLM, are based on “Atlantification drives recent strengthening of the Arctic overturning circulation” by Årthun et al. (2026). A recent…

Next confirmation: AMOC stable

A Ponderable Future

The research by Årthun et al. (2025) suggests that the northern limb of the global ocean circulation is far more robust than we feared. We are seeing a system in transition, shifting its operations poleward to maintain its vital function

#climate

China’s latest energy data offers a signal worth paying attention to. In 2025, emissions from energy and industry fell by 0.3%, modest, but notable, even as total energy consumption rose by 3.5%.

The key driver? A continued surge in solar power capacity.

Congress has appropriated the funds to NSF but OMB is delaying the release. When funds are released, NSF, which has lost almost 1/5 of its staff, will struggle to evaluate proposals. Since they have to award the funds, big projects with established PIs will benefit. This is how US science dies.

New study by @hailingjia.bsky.social, collaboration between @sronspace.bsky.social @meteoleipzig.bsky.social and others: how to obtain best satellite info about cloud condensation nuclei to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions: assimilation for vertical resolution www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Front cover of journal article

Public engagement and climate change: exploring the role of hairdressers as everyday influencers

⭐New paper!⭐ Two research projects exploring the influence that hairdressers—as widespread professionals in conversational spaces—have w/ clients about climate & sustainability.

doi.org/10.1057/s415...

So, any other news yesterday?
Anything important?

More evidence that internal ocean variability is limited, confirming earlier work (Haustein et al 2019): journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

Given that DCENT is the most realistic observational temperature product we now have, the case for limited internal variability is even stronger.

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability since 1850 is largely externally forced Abstract. Whether observed Atlantic Multidecadal variability (AMV) is truly an intrinsic internal mode of climate variability or an externally forced response remains contentious, with conflicting lit...

First paper led by our @climatecocentre.bsky.social PhD student Yongyao has gone to open review. Blown away that after just 12 months she has a first paper submitted. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... @edhawkins.org @germac.bsky.social

So MP @bromsgrovebradley.bsky.social wants to know about the CO2 impact of Chinese clean-tech manufacturing, having just asked a Q in parliament

Which is lucky, cos we published detailed analysis on this last year: China’s clean-energy exports in 2024 alone will cut overseas CO2 by 1% (inc UK)

Verschneiter Feldweg, der zwischen tiefem Schnee in die Ferne führt, umgeben von weißen Bäumen unter blauem Winterhimmel.

Karte Deutschlands mit violetter Schneehöhenverteilung, Skala rechts und rotem Rechteck über Norddeutschland, DWD-Logo unten rechts.

☃️ #Schneefälle nur noch alle 100 Jahre? Eine aktuelle DWD-Studie weist darauf hin, dass Schneefälle wie Mitte Januar in Norddeutschland zum echten Jahrhundertereignis werden könnten...

Hier geht’s zum vollständigen Bericht:🔗 www.dwd.de/DE/klimaumwel…
Foto: Miriam Wagner-Jacht / DWD, Grafik: DWD

How climate scientists balance the tension between research and public protest – new study Researchers said they tried to manage how their activism was perceived by clarifying their expertise and acting alongside other scientists.

Fascinating research by @samuelfinnerty.bsky.social on how scientist-activists navigate the tensions between their professional and activist roles, based on research with our group @scientistsforxr.earth

*This*

Advertisement poster for EMS Annual Meeting session. Text: 'Attribution of extreme weather events and their impacts (UP1). Abstract deadline March 27th. Convened by Tamara Happe, Vikki Thompson. Paolo Scussolini, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Sanne Muis, and Doris Vertegaal.

Working on impact attribution of extreme weather events? Submit to our session at the EMS Annual Meeting in Utrecht in September!

meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2026/sess...

@tamarahappe.bsky.social @sannemuis.bsky.social

Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research
🧪 #Macroecology

Best practices for moving from correlation to causation in ecological research - Nature Communications Different scientific traditions offer seemingly disparate approaches to inferring causal relationships in ecological systems. This Perspective unifies the causal assumptions and methods from...

Excited to share our new paper in @natcomms.nature.com We synthesize causal discovery & inference approaches across traditions (regression adjustment, quasi-expts, SEMs, Granger causality, convergent cross-mapping, and more) into a unified workflow for ecologists. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Water Vapor imagery from @noaa.gov #GOESEast (GOES-19) showed the evolution of the powerful record-setting Nor'easter during the February 22-23 period -- more on the CIMSS Satellite Blog: cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/satellite-bl...

Coral species from another ocean may be the only way to save Caribbean reefs | PNAS Coral species from another ocean may be the only way to save Caribbean reefs

My latest pub, apparently more controversial than it should. We must support research on whether nonnative coral can fulfill reef-building in the Caribbean. If it shows promise, we should work to allow provisional deployment of such species while monitoring for adverse effects and using precaution.

Uncertainties of enhanced rock weathering for climate-change mitigation - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy that converts atmospheric CO2 to stable carbonates by applying minerals to agricultural land. This Perspective discusses the p...

Enhanced rock weathering could help remove CO2 by spreading crushed Si-rich rock on soils

But scaling it up isn’t simple. Limited suitable rock, potential toxic elements, soil impacts, uncertain carbon tracking from land to ocean, and financing are major challenges

www.nature.com/articles/s43...

ie Flugkampagne SANAT untersuchte den Ursprung und Transport von Aerosolen in der antarktischen Atmosphäre, an denen sich Wolken bilden – Das erste Mal auch weit im Landesinneren. (Foto: Alfred-Wegener-Institut / Philipp Joppe, MPI für Chemie)

How do #clouds form in #Antarctica? The first #flight-based #aerosol #measurements in 20 years. #SANAT flight #campaign investigated origin & transport of #aerosols: www.tropos.de/en/current-i... --- @awi.de @mpic.de @tropos-de.bsky.social @leibniz-gemeinschaft.de / #Neumeyer3 @dfg.de #ClimateChange

Die Schleppsonde "T-Bird“ wird an einem 60 Meter langen Kabel hinter dem Flugzeug hergezogen und sammelt eigenständig Daten. (Foto: Alfred-Wegener-Institut / Philipp Joppe, MPI für Chemie)

Wie bilden sich #Wolken in der #Antarktis? Erste fluggestützte #Aerosol-Messungen seit 20 Jahren. Flugkampagne #SANAT untersuchte Ursprung/Transport von Aerosolen. Das 1. Mal auch weit im Landesinneren: www.tropos.de/aktuelles/pr... / @awi.de @mpic.de @tropos-de.bsky.social @leibniz-gemeinschaft.de

Air quality improvement masks global cooling from CO2 reductions under China’s carbon neutrality policies for half a century - Nature Communications China’s carbon neutrality and clean-air policies cause global warming from reduced aerosols that nearly offsets cooling from reduced CO2 before 2060, with warming emerging afterwards, calling for earl...

New study shows that #China ’s #CarbonNeutrality and #CleanAir policies cause #GlobalWarming from reduced #aerosols that nearly offsets cooling from reduced CO2 before 2060, with warming emerging afterwards. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

The political effects of X’s feed algorithm - Nature Among users initially on a chronological feed, 7 weeks of exposure to X’s algorithmic feed in 2023 shifted political attitudes and account-following behaviour in a more conservative direction compared...

Brainwashing, 2026 edition. This paper shows how X's algorithmic feed shifts people's views rightwards. It's a sophisticated, highly effective form of reorientation. And it is utterly chilling.
If you're still on that platform, unhook yourself now.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Millennial-aged peat carbon outgassed by large humic lakes in the Congo Basin - Nature Geoscience Two major humic lakes in the Congo Basin emit ancient carbon from nearby peatlands into the atmosphere, as shown by the isotopic signatures of their carbon pools.

New paper alert! 🚨 Our new study shows that massive lakes in the Congo Basin are outgassing millennial-aged carbon. This challenges the idea that lake CO₂ only comes from modern vegetation.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Thread below! 🧵👇

Connections between biodiversity and climate (CBC): check out the conference we are organising in Leipzig: @cbc-conference.bsky.social cbc-conference.org
Lineup of fantastic keynote speakers from different disciplines, sessions across different facets of CBC! @unileipzig.bsky.social @ufz.de

NEW – Limiting warming to 2C is ‘crucial’ to protect pristine Antarctic Peninsula

✍️ @giulianaviglione.bsky.social
💬 comments from @iceybethan.bsky.social @treacherousbuzz.bsky.social @tridatta.bsky.social @scottdoney.bsky.social

Read here: buff.ly/wELuQCm

For the first time since records began in 1950, France’s multi-week national MSLP has dropped below 1000 hPa. The persistence of this low-pressure pattern across western Europe in recent weeks has been nothing short of historic.

The Weather and Society Conference 2026, under the WMO’s World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) will take place online from 23–26 February 2026.

🌍 Conference dates: 23–26 Feb. 2026 (Online)
🔗 More details and registration: weatherandsociety.com