Brian Blank

Yellen not at all pulling her punches in this op-ed for the FT www.ft.com/content/d2ea...

$NVDA

A family outside their home. Their deck is loaded with guns.

A man in his living room. His living room is full of guns. There's also a big safe labeled "Liberty."

A man outside his home. The walkway into his home is full of guns.

A woman outside her garage. The front of her home is full of guns, some laid out in a star formation.

IMO many Americans don't even buy guns for personal protection or to defend themselves against a tyrannical government. They simply have a shopping addiction

Q2 GDP Growth Revised up to 3.3% Annual Rate www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/q2-g...

Writing my Early-Season Soccer Overreactions piece, and ... with Liverpool blowing four leads in three games and City's defense getting randomly torched, I'm deciding between "Arsenal will win the Premier League" or "Chelsea will win the Premier League" to lead the list. Who should I jinx????

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for June ("June" is a 3-month average of April, May and June closing prices). Th...

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/case...

Maybe the most beautiful single play I’ve ever seen

Fed Chair Powell: "The shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance" www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/08/fed-...

"while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers"

When it comes to finance, ‘normal’ data is actually pretty weird Statistics shows data is often grouped on a bell curve distribution, but a business study reveals that extreme outliers can skew research – with big implications.

Finance researchers often assume data follows a neat bell curve. But real-world numbers are messy, skewed and full of outliers.

Understanding what's "normal" in finance helps reduce risky decisions:

Housing July 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January....

Housing July 28th Weekly Update: Inventory up 0.4% Week-over-week; Down 10% from 2019 Levels www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/hous...

Selected school shootings in the US, 2012-2022 When researchers looked at about 100 communities across the country that had endured school shootings, they found that local economies also struggled in the aftermath.

School shootings reshape communities beyond the schoolyard. Residents withdraw from public spaces, leading to lasting declines in consumer activity. theconversation.com/school-shoot...

Goldman: “We continue to expect three 25bp rate cuts this year in September, October, and December, followed by two more in 2026 to a terminal rate of 3-3.25%.”

SEC preview: Alabama, Georgia, Texas, LSU ... this conference is wide open The SEC never lacks for talent or storylines -- and there's no reason to think 2025 will be any different.

* Ceilings (Bama) vs. floors (UGA, Texas)
* LSU looks good on paper (again)!
* Arch, Sellers, Reed, Lagway ... LOTS of fun young QBs
* Ahmad Hardy, YAC KING
* OU's Palouse dependence
* DIEGO DAMN PAVIA
* Week 5 is too damn huge
* Roll Tide, apparently

2025 SEC PREVIEW: www.espn.com/college-foot...

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Final Look at Local Housing Markets in June and a Look Ahead to July Sales calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/final-look...

All Free ...

Goldman: "a 10pp increase in tariff rates raises employment in protected industries .. but tariff-driven costs lowers employment. Scaling these estimates to the US economy imply a boost of just under 100k to manufacturing.. but a roughly 500k drag on downstream employment from input cost pressures."

A graph of the goods most affected by tariffs, including cars, computers, phones, medical instruments, and more

Today's exemptions caused the tariff rate on computers to drop from 41% to 5% & the rate on phones to drop from 65% to 10%

Cars remain the largest tariff-affected import, with goods made primarily in China (batteries, toys, game consoles) being hit with the highest tariffs (3/3)

Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different We are in a period of significant policy uncertainty and there isn’t a good historical analog for the current period.

Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/watch-inve...

February income/spending data:
After-tax income: +0.9%
Consumer spending: +0.4%
Consumer prices: +0.3% m/m, +2.5% y/y
Core prices: +0.4% m/m, +2.8% y/y
Data: www.bea.gov/news/2025/pe... #NumbersDay #EconSky

Nobody's talking about how Alabama is 67% on 2's tonight

Alabama has as many made 3's in Newark tonight as Seton Hall had in their last five home games combined in that building.

Wells Fargo: 'Wells Fargo on Thursday cut its price target on Tesla to $130 from $135, citing a “shocking” year-to-date decline in the electric vehicle (EV) maker’s European sales and “concerns about political backlash from Elon’s Trump support.”'

We conclude with the granddaddy of them all, the SEC tournament, which begins momentarily from Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Fun facts:
- Winner gets bye to the Final Four
- Officiating will be done by AI
- 8 teams rank in the nation's top 40 of experience

Definitely didn’t have “Saquon’s doing absolutely nothing, and the Eagles are on pace to win by seven touchdowns” on the ol’ bingo card.

mahomes looking at the eagles defensive front

What another Trump administration could mean for crypto Bitcoin surpassed $100,000 for the second time ever on Wednesday, after hitting the milestone the first time in early December, a surge fueled by optimism that the Trump administration would be more f...

With the Trump administration set to begin today, @kenichiserino.bsky.social interviewed me & wrote about what another #Trump administration could mean for #crypto: strategic #bitcoin reserve? Relaxed regulation? More coins like we have seen this week? More uncertainty? www.pbs.org/newshour/pol...

What does 2025 hold for interest rates, inflation and the American consumer? ‘Forecasting is for the weather,’ economists say. But it can be fun anyway.

2025 predictions for interest rates, inflation & the US consumer from:
—a Fed watcher who studies how companies navigate downturns & make financial decisions, plus how markets process info
—a finance prof who leads a student-managed investment fund & studies corporate decision-making & incentives

Bold take: if Jalen Hurts gets 6 seconds in the pocket on every passing down, the Eagles will win the game

#1 was short lived