@dbblank.bsky.social
Acts 4:13 Disciple, Husband, Girl Dad x 3, Son, Brother, Assoc Prof Finance @ Mississippi State in Empirical Corporate via Alabama, Roll Tide! & Tennessee PhD, @arsenalfc.bsky.social Fan, Scholarship: https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=VxWst50
The Gaping Hole in the Housing Market calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/the-gaping...
So happy that the Next Big Idea Club team has selected my first book - THE SCIENCE OF SECOND CHANCES - as a monthly must-read!
I summarize 5 big takeaways in this Book Bite. (Link below.)
www.mortgagenewsdaily.com
it took just over a year to get from "I'll lower costs on day one" to "I'm raising prices and it's good, actually"
Goldman (due to Iran): "we have raised our estimated risk of recession over the next 12 months by 5pp to 25% ... [and] pushing back the first cut in our Fed forecast from June to September"
Higher inflation, later rate cuts ... increasing chance of recession (but still fairly low).
Miami's probably in but if every bracketologist has Miami in, that's some proof they basically copy off each other.
Following the invasion of Ukraine, WTI peaked at just over $120 per barrel and the national average for gasoline hit $5.00 (briefly).
It depends how long the straits are closed, but above $4.00 gasoline will happen if WTI holds at $106 for any time.
Miami avenges their 2003 Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio.
75% chance of a bid thief out of the MAC. Has to be a record? kenpom.substack.com/p/conference...
Used vehicle prices moving up (more inflation).
www.coxautoinc.com/insights/man...
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 212.3, reflecting a 4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to February 2025.
Bama’s streak of 4 straight max byes is the 7th instance of at least 4 straight in league history and the first this decade.
10-20 UK
00-07 UF
92-99 Arky
92-99 UK
01-05 UK
23-26 Bama
11-14 UF
Outside of Auburn fans, I don't think enough is being made of Bruce Pearl holding a gun to the AD's head and making him hire his mediocre son to take over what had become an elite program. One of the most selfish acts in college sports history
Asking Rents Continue to Decline Year-over-year
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/asking-ren...
Got all of the week 1 conference tournament predictions up. Improbably, the 1-seed is favored in 14 out of 15 of these events. kenpom.substack.com/p/conference...
Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads
calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-upd...
Gotta love beating your biggest rival for a commitment
Tennessee lost the battle against Alabama 71-69, but won the war...for offensive rebounds by gathering 25 of 47 possible chances. This boosted the Vols' season-long OR% to 45.4%. Just 15 teams have finished with an OR% above 44 since 1997 and 14 of those cases occurred in 2001 or earlier.
Bama Softball just took two off FSU in fairly convincing fashion and gave up a total of one run in the process. Murph may have gotten it back
Last night, teams averaged 76.4 ppg (thanks Alabama/Arkansas for your service). That beat the previous record for a February or March day over the past 30 years (min 50 games) by a point and a half. It was the 5th highest scoring day regardless of month. (This season now owns the top 6).
"From the preceding month, the PCE price index for December increased 0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.4 percent."
YoY, the PCE price index increased 2.9 percent. Core PCE price index increased 3.0 percent YoY.
Inflation was higher than expected.
Canada had a strong incentive to lose because it meant avoiding the best team in the world in the semis. At least they didn't make a joke of the game and I wouldn't blame them for soft tanking. If you are into conspiracies, Brad Jacobs' last shot of the 10th end was an awful shot by his standards.
Goldman: "We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +1.7% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting stronger single-family housing starts and inventory accumulation than our previous assumptions."
Auburn is getting murked in Starkville right now because Josh Hubbard is currently beating them by himself. He has 35 of Clanga’s 49 points
"In the week ending February 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 206,000, a decrease of
23,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 227,000 to
229,000."
I'm sorry, but that just cannot be healthy.
A+: Arsenal and Bayern
A: Spurs??, Sporting and Qarabag
A-: Atleti, Atalanta, Inter, Leverkusen
D: Napoli, Slavia, Eintracht
F: Villarreal
I graded all 36 Champions League teams (and named a Best XI) after a wild and wacky Matchday 8.
www.espn.com/soccer/story...
It's official. We'll be adding a 20th entry to this list on Saturday.
Since December 14 exactly one opponent has shot better than 34.4% from 3 against Michigan would you like to guess who?
(Wisconsin, who beat them)