Christopher Solomon

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 7, 2025: The Kremlin positively reacted to the recently released US National Security Strategy (NSS). 🧵(1/4)

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar120725

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

Superpower Competition: The Missing Chapter in Trump’s Security Strategy

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/07/u...

4/ India’s increased partnerships w/ RU are against the backdrop of RU’s growing reliance on N. Korea & the PRC to support the war.

UA advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area & near Novopavlivka & Oleksandrivka. RU marginally advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

NEW: Russian forces launched 704 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 5 to 6, heavily targeting railway and energy infrastructure across the country.

Read the Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 6, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar120625

More Key Takeaways ⬇️ (1/4)

3/ Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI). isw.pub/UkrWar120525

2/ Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December 5 as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. isw.pub/UkrWar120525

4/ ISW has not observed evidence to suggest that Russian forces have encircled Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as some Ukrainian sources continue to indicate that Ukrainian forces maintain limited ground lines of communication (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Opinion | Ominous maps of a falling fortress city reveal a change in Ukraine war Putting Russia’s campaign to capture the Ukrainian fortress city into perspective.

"The Russian military is learning and adapting — which, if gone unchecked, could foreshadow serious trouble for Ukraine in the near to medium term," @georgewbarros.bsky.social writes. https://wapo.st/48I25Jw

❗️Footage of the Sentradel autonomous counter-drone machine gun system in operation.

7/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk.
isw.pub/UkrWar120325

4/ High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to set conditions to justify potential future Russian aggression against Moldova and the Baltics.

The Kremlin is reigniting narratives that Odesa City is a Russian city.

Where is Ukraine’s front line? The answer is getting harder, and more political In the tumultuous history of modern warfare, the information struggle has often been fought with the same fury as the kinetic. Amid all the attempts to portray success instead of failure, to exude co...

What was — for the entire history of conflict until the last decade — once concealed by the fog of war and hostage to the information politics of the belligerents, is now readily available with a few clicks, thanks to a slew of online maps, reasonably accurate and regularly updated.

Despite claiming to have seized full control of Pokrovsk, it is not clear that Russia has done so—or that it can necessarily press on for longer than Ukraine can hold on. Our charts break down the data econ.st/4iA1JsD

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the US-Ukrainian peace proposal during his meeting with a US delegation in Moscow on December 2 and remains highly unlikely to accept any compromises short of his original war goals. MORE 🧵⬇️(1/6)
isw.pub/UkrWar120225

I still remember this scene from the movie U-571, when the German captain orders the shooting of British survivors from a ship they had sunk earlier.

Very chilling and outrageous when you think about what the United States is doing today.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gc7l...

Opinion | This Is the Story of How the Democrats Blew It on Gaza

This Is the Story of How the Democrats Blew It on Gaza by @rhodesben.bsky.social via NYT.

www.nytimes.com/2025/12/01/o...

NEW: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US-proposed peace plan aims to ensure Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and economic development, during the US-Ukrainian talks in Hallandale Beach, Florida. 🧵(1/8)

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar113025

Other Key Takeaways ⬇️

Christians in Lebanon Look to Pope Leo’s Visit for a Message of Hope and Peace

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/30/w...

6/ The Russian economy continues to show signs of fracturing as Russia continues to prioritize its wartime economy over stability.

Balloons from Belarusian airspace continued incursions into NATO airspace in Lithuania overnight on November 28 to 29.

5/ Ukrainian forces recently struck two Russian shadow fleet oil tankers in the Black Sea — the first time Ukrainian forces attacked shadow fleet vessels. Ukrainian forces also struck a marine terminal w/ USVs amid continued drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and military infrastructure.

NEW: The frontline in Ukraine is not facing imminent collapse despite recent Russian gains and Kremlin assertions. (1/4)

Read the full Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 28, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112825

More Key Takeaways ⬇️

NEW: The Trump administration continues efforts to negotiate a peace deal to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.🧵(1/7)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 25, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112525

Other Key Takeaways:

As potential deal looms, France and Britain map out boots-on-ground role in Ukraine Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday announced a new joint task-force — with U.S. buy-in — aiming at “finalized security guarantees” if a peace deal lands.

Europe’s leaders are trying to nail down their plans to back up Ukraine with multinational military force if the country manages to land a peace deal with Russia.

NEW: US and Ukrainian delegations reportedly narrowed down the initial US-proposed 28-point peace plan to 19 points.🧵(1/6)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112425

Other Key Takeaways:

How the U.S. Drafted a Russia-Friendly Peace Plan for Ukraine Crucial input from a Kremlin confidant influenced the document that for a week roiled relations between the U.S., Ukraine and Europe.

Exclusive: How a Kremlin insider influenced Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine

NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.

Read the full update: isw.pub/UkrWar112125

I served as our Ambassador in Ukraine for 3 years under Putin’s missiles and drones but resigned when Trump kept appeasing Putin. America does not bow to dictators. It’s not who we are.

Here's why this Trump-Putin so-called "peace plan" is a disaster:

NEW: All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation to Russia’s original war demands. 🧵(1/6)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, Nov. 20, 2025: isw.pub/UkrWar112025

The EU has a very clear two-point plan: first, weaken Russia; second, support Ukraine.

Sanctions are hitting Russia hard.

The export of Russian crude oil is at its lowest. And tax revenues from oil are the lowest since the war started.

My press remarks following today's FAC link.europa.eu/VDdpDw